The Impact Of External Demand Shocks On China’s Regional Labor Employment

Since joining the World Trade Organization,China has also faced more frequent external demand shocks while gaining the dividends of economic globalization.Employment is an important prerequisite and basis for ensuring and improving people’s livelihood.The adjustment of regional labor employment is not only related to the development differences between regions,but also to the realization of the goal of common prosperity.It is of great significance to study the impact of external demand shocks on China’s regional labor employment.Although existing studies have discussed the effects of external demand shocks or foreign trade on labor employment,under the current new development pattern,how external demand shocks affect China’s regional labor employment still needs to be further explored.Based on this,this paper will comprehensively study the impact of external demand shocks on the employment of regional labor force and the realization mechanism,and explore the feasible path to achieve the stability of labor employment in China’s regions.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:Theoretical analysis part:Based on the research of Kovak(2013)and Helm(2020),this paper constructs a theoretical framework of the impact of external demand shocks on regional labor employment.First,introduce the employment-creating effect of export and domestic sales expansion and the employment-destroying effect of productivity improvement,and expand the analysis from tradable sectors to nontradable sectors to establish a theoretical analysis framework for the impact of external demand shocks on regional labor employment at the regional level;second,introduce agglomeration economic effects,and distinguish the different sources of labor that form the agglomeration economy,such as local rural labor in the manufacturing industry and cross-regional inflow labor,and establish a theoretical analysis framework for the impact of external demand in other industries in the region to indirectly affect the employment of labor in this industry;finally,the introduction of import intermediate The complementary substitution relationship between input and domestic production establishes a theoretical analysis framework for the role of imported intermediate inputs in the impact of external demand shocks on regional labor employment.Empirical research part:First,this paper studies the effect of external demand shock on regional labor employment and its realization mechanism at the regional level.The study found that during 2000-2010,external demand shocks increased labor employment in the region as a whole,in both tradable and non-tradable sectors.From the perspective of the mechanism of action,external demand shocks will affect labor employment in regional tradable sectors through the employment creation effect of export and domestic sales expansion and the employment destruction effect of productivity improvement;the increase in output and employment in regional tradable sectors caused by external demand shocks will be caused by industrial linkages Positive spillover effects such as consumption-driven increase the employment of non-tradable sectors in the region,and reduce the employment of non-tradable sectors in the region through the inter-departmental reconfiguration effect of employment;incorporated into the dynamic analysis framework,it is found that the impact of external demand shocks on the employment of non-tradable sectors in the region is first suppressed and then The dynamic evolution process of promotion is closely related to the adjustment of regional labor supply under the shock of external demand.Secondly,this paper deepens the research on the regional labor employment effect of external demand shocks to the regional-industry level,and focuses on the impact of indirect external demand shocks on regional labor employment.The study found that external demand shocks in other industries in the region are conducive to increasing labor employment in this industry,that is,indirect external demand shocks have a positive impact on regional labor employment.The mechanism test found that the agglomeration economy formed by the labor pool effect and the industry input-output correlation effect is an important channel for indirect external demand shocks to affect labor employment;The entry of rural labor into the manufacturing industry has changed from 2005 to 2010,which mainly relied on the inflow of labor across regions.This adjustment has an important impact on the formation of agglomeration economies and the employment effect of indirect external demand shocks.Finally,this paper focuses on the role of imported intermediate inputs in the regional labor employment effect of external demand shocks,that is,the choice of using imported intermediate inputs or domestic intermediate inputs to meet the needs of production expansion caused by external demand shocks can be more helpful to external demand.Shocks play a role in promoting employment growth.The study found that imported intermediate inputs played an important role in the impact of external demand shocks on the employment of labor in China,and showed a dynamic evolution from strengthening the employment promotion effect of external demand shocks to weakening the employment promotion effect of external demand shocks.Further research finds that the output effect of the complementary relationship between imported intermediate inputs and domestic intermediate inputs,and the complementary relationship between imported intermediate inputs and domestic final products is the role of imported intermediate inputs in the impact of external demand shocks on regional labor employment.The important reason is that the increase in the production capacity of China’s domestic intermediate inputs has resulted in the shift from a complementary relationship to a substitution relationship between imported intermediate inputs and domestic production.There is an important dynamic evolution of the role in employment impact.Based on the research conclusions,this paper obtains some policy inspirations,in order to provide certain policy references for achieving employment stability and narrowing regional employment differences under the new development pattern of intensified external demand shocks and "dual circulation".