| Since the 2008 financial crisis,the economic growth rate of China has continued to decline.In order to stabilize economic,proactive fiscal policies have been continuously introduced.Over the past decade,the combination of increasing government expenditures and reducing taxes and fees has achieved remarkable results.It not only guaranteed a soft landing for the economy,but also stabilized employment level.Recently,American-led western powers frequently suppressed Chinese companies,which reflected that the conflict changed from the trade field to technology field.And,in 2020,COVID-19 befalling the world,heavily influenced economic development of China and other countries.Under the pressure of the spread of COVID19 and the external technology blockade,conditions of economic development have worsened.In 2020,GDP growth rate of China is 2.3%,and the unemployment rate is 4.24%,both of which are not encouraging.The combination of internal and external pressures has made China’s technological innovation shortcomings and the severe employment situation more prominent.2021 is the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan",and is also the start year to move towards the second centenary goal.In this new era with complex and severe domestic and international environments,the goal of starting a proactive battle has put forward new requirements for the formulation and implementation of future fiscal policies—making proactive fiscal policies more effective and precise.Employment and innovation have been mentioned many times in the 2021 Government Work Report and have become urgent issues in the new era.How to play the role of proactive fiscal policy more effectively in solving these issues has attracted much attention.Therefore,this paper,by examining the role of proactive fiscal policies in alleviating employment pressure and strengthening technological weaknesses,provides opportunities for policy makers to understand the necessity of improving the quality of fiscal policies,and the outcomes and deficiencies in policy formulation and implementation.This helps references improve and optimize the fiscal system.Many studies also point out that the excessive intervention of proactive fiscal policy may worsen the economic structure and aggravate social contradictions,so some researcher recommend to remove fiscal policy from the macro-control toolkit.Concerning the negative effects of proactive fiscal policy,this paper further analyzes some potential risks brought by the proactive fiscal policy,which guarantees to resolve the negative effects and achieve positive fiscal policy more accurate for the new period.In the proposal of the CPC Central Committee on formulating the 14th Five-year Plan for economic and social development and the long-range objectives through the year 2035 and the 2021 Government Work Report,government emphasizes that public expenses and fiscal policies should not only be used to promote employment and innovation,but also to guard against financial and fiscal risks.On the one hand,the intervention of proactive fiscal policy in financial markets is one of the potential risks of proactive fiscal policy.Due to the weak management of financial fund,a large amount of government precipitation funds was deposited in commercial banks,which created the possibility for local governments to intervene local banks.The intervention of local governments in banks will heavily lead to rising financial risks.Since 2020,with the implementation of a new round of proactive fiscal policies,the bureaucracy need to ensure the effects of policies and prevent financial markets from being affected.On the other hand,proactive fiscal policies may increase the risks of fiscal operations.The implementation of proactive fiscal policy requires help of the transfer payment system.The rationality of the transfer payment system directly influences the effect of the fiscal policy.Under the dual pressure of the economic downturn and the impact of the epidemic,fiscal revenue will decrease and expenditure will increase.If the transfer payment system is unreasonable,the implementation of proactive fiscal policy will result in serious waste of fiscal funds and ultimately lead to further deterioration of gap between fiscal revenue and expenditure.Standing at the new point,comprehensively analyzing and understanding the impact,deficiencies and potential risks of proactive fiscal policy are the very important for promoting proactive fiscal policy to be more proactive in the new era.Therefore,at present,by evaluating the employment multiplier and innovation effect of the proactive fiscal policy,we can understand the impacts and shortcomings of the policy,and at the same time,we can understand the potential risks of the policy by examining the impact of the proactive fiscal policy on the financial and fiscal risks.On this basis,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to summarize the research conclusions of this article and give some related policy advices.This paper consists of 8 chapters.Except for the introduction,the main content and conclusions of the other chapters are summarized as follows.The second chapter summarizes the positive and negative functions of proactive fiscal policies based on existing literature.And,by reviewing the existing researches,this chapter points out the value of this research from several aspects-the impact,shortage and potential risks of fiscal policies.Chapter three illustrates the development and composition of fiscal policies in China.For detail,by collecting,organizing and analyzing proactive fiscal policies,this chapter summarizes the application and effect of fiscal policies during each economic crisis since the reform and opening up.Based on this,this chapter further finds out the evolution logic of the formulation and implementation of proactive fiscal policy in China,and introduces the main content of this paperChapter four studies the employment multiplier effect of proactive policy.Employment is the safeguard of people’s livelihood.Job security is priority of future economic work,being placed first within "stability on the six fronts".So far,the employment multiplier of China’s fiscal policy remains a mystery,which is not conducive to fully play the role fiscal policy,and hinders government from building accurate relationship between policy scale and objectives.Therefore,empirically analyzing and measuring the employment multiplier of fiscal policy and making policy more targeted will improve quality and efficiency of fiscal funds in stabilizing employment.In detail,this part,based the accelerated depreciation policy of fixed assets effective in 2014,using prefecture-level data from 2010 to 2016,analyzes the impact of tax reduction on employment.The study finds that the accelerated depreciation policy in 2014 significantly improved employment,in detail,creating about 10.15 million jobs in three years.Further research finds that the impact of accelerated depreciation policies on employment has regional heterogeneity and industrial heterogeneity,and are more affected in the eastern region or capital-intensive regions.Through cost-benefit analysis,it is calculated that the fiscal cost of creating one job is about 23,000 yuan(price in 2014).Although it is lower than the cost in European and American developed country,it is half of the average salary.Because of China’s large labor supply,it is necessary to enhance the pertinence of policies and enhance the employment effect of proactive fiscal policies in the new period.The fifth chapter studies the effect of proactive policy on innovation.Specifically,this section examines the effect of fiscal scientific research funds on performance of university by using university data.the proposal of the CPC Central Committee on formulating the 14th Five-year Plan for economic and social development and the longrange objectives through the year 2035 emphasizes relying on innovation to promote development.And innovation has become a powerful driving force for stabilizing the economy and employment.In the new era,it has become vital that proactive fiscal policy perform precisely and effectively in promoting scientific research and innovation.Basic research is the source of scientific and technological innovation,and one of its funding mainly comes from financial funds.Although universities are important institutions for basic research,there are few studies that focus on the impact of financial funds on scientific output of researchers in universities.In the past decade,natural science fund of China has grown rapidly,and its effectiveness is unclear.This chapter uses the establishment of the Medical Science in 2010 as a quasi-natural experiment to analyze the impact of fiscal funds on the behavior of researchers and universities.Based on the data of medical school in universities directly under the Ministry of Education from 2008 to 2017,a difference-in-difference model is constructed to conduct research and finds that on average,fiscal funding has little impact on the publication of research papers,patent and technology transfer in the 8 years after the policy.Taking into account the lag,by doing dynamic analysis,this part finds that although fiscal funds can significantly encourage researchers to publish English academic papers,but has little impact on patent applications and authorization in long term.Many university papers,few patents and low conversion rate of patents are key factors that restricts selfreliance in science and technology.Research shows that by building a more scientific research evaluation system,we can promote the development of basic research,and improve both the quantity and quality of scientific achievements.Chapter six analyzes the potential risks of proactive fiscal policies.Taking financial market risks as an example,this chapter conducts an empirical analysis based on the data of representative city commercial banks from 2009 to 2017.The research finds that:(1)The proactive fiscal policy increases fiscal deposit funds.These funds are deposited in commercial banks and become a tool of government to intervene in city commercial banks.(2)The greater the increase in the bank’s fiscal deposit balance,the greater the degree of government intervention in local city commercial banks,the greater the scale of total loan,long-term and short-term loans,and government loans;The total scale of commercial bank loans and short-term loans significantly increase the non-performing asset ratio;(4)Local governments,by influencing the long-term loans of city commercial banks,will expand banks’ special mention loans and increase potential risks.In the new period,government will maintain stable proactive fiscal policy and avoid sharp turns in policy.In order to keep proactive fiscal policies from influencing the financial market and increasing difficulty in preventing and controlling financial risks,in the future,government should try to improve the pertinence and timeliness of fiscal funds and quickly establish a macroeconomic governance system that coordinate fiscal and monetary policies.Chapter seven analyzes the fiscal risk of proactive fiscal policy from the perspective of administrative costs.When applying proactive fiscal policies,transfer payment systems should be paid attention,because it not only affects the efficiency and effectiveness of fiscal expenditures,but also matters to protecting and lessening the financial risk.Learning from history.This section uses a panel data of 2089 counties in China from 1999 to 2006.Based on various regression methods such as instrumental variables,empirical analysis confirms the speculation that the implementation of proactive fiscal policies may increase administrative costs and decreasing the efficiency of fiscal expenditures.Conclusions show that optimizing structure of transfer payment will have a positive effect on controlling the growth of administrative expenses,alleviating the pressure of fiscal balance,reducing fiscal risk and improving quality and efficiency of fiscal policies.Chapter eight is the main conclusion and policy enlightenment of this article.This part first summarizes the main conclusions of each chapter,points out the directions of improving the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies in the future,and then briefly states the limitation of this article and further research problems. |
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