Research On Employment Effect Of Fiscal Policy Based On Labor Market Equilibrium

Work together to stabilize employment and consolidate the "ballast stone".Rule the country often,benefit the people for this.As the fundamental guarantee of people’s livelihood,employment development not only relates to the quality of life of the subject,but also affects the construction of national economy,politics and culture.How to balance the relationship between economic goals and employment promotion goals is a common problem faced by all countries in the world,and also the main issue of this paper.The contradiction of Chinese labor market is mainly embodied in the contradiction of gross supply and demand of labor,structural contradiction of supply and demand of labor,and two kinds of contradictions are interwoven.The comprehensive theory and empirical analysis show that it is unrealistic to rely on the market mechanism alone to solve the problem of labor supply and demand.Once the labor market fails,the contradiction between labor supply and demand will fall into a new deadlock.As one of the macro policy means,fiscal policy is an important way to promote employment and balance the relationship between labor supply and demand.But the question of how the policy impact will be and how long the expected effect will last is worth further discussion.This paper mainly discusses the influence of fiscal expenditure policy and tax preferential policy on the total supply and structure of labor market and the total demand and structure of labor market,thus proving that fiscal policy affects the balance of labor market.First of all,the basic theory of employment and the mechanism of the effect of fiscal policies on employment are expounded,with the emphasis on the mechanism of fiscal policies on the supply and demand and balance of the labor market.Then,taking the reform and opening up as the time node,the author reviews the fiscal policies that have been promulgated and implemented in the past 40 years to promote employment.Secondly,through the construction of endogenous growth model to discuss the optimal labor supply and demand of households and enterprises,the theoretical model of the impact of fiscal policy tools on labor supply,labor demand and labor market equilibrium is mathematically derived.To sum up,in order to ensure the consistency of research objects(financial policy tools)in the main content of the full paper,the research conclusions are comparable.This paper uses fiscal expenditure tools(government investment expenditure,science,education,culture and health expenditure,social security expenditure and positive(negative)employment subsidy)and tax revenue tools(income tax,commodity tax,social security tax(fee))to empirically analyze the labor supply effect of fiscal policy from two dimensions of the total and structure of labor supply.The labor demand effect of fiscal policy is empirically analyzed from two dimensions of the total and structure of labor demand.The influence of fiscal policy on labor market equilibrium and labor market welfare is discussed by DSGE model.Based on the above analysis,it is found that the pressure of total employment in China is not decreasing,the structural contradictions are prominent,and "more stable work" has become the expectation of the people.Aiming at the difficulties and focus of employment,this paper puts forward specific suggestions on the optimization of fiscal policy to promote employment.Based on the above theoretical basis and empirical test,the paper draws the following conclusions:First,accelerate the reform of the tax(fee)system and deepen the structural tax reduction.Structural tax cuts such as consumption tax,individual income tax and social security tax will be carried out to reduce the tax burden on people and enterprises,increase their disposable income,promote reinvestment and consumption,and help expand employment and create more jobs.Second,we will adjust the scale and structure of government spending and give full play to the role of promoting employment.By increasing funding for science,education,culture and health care,advancing reform of the social security system,optimizing the size and structure of employment,and appropriately reducing government investment expenditure,we will maximize the enthusiasm of all governments in implementing policies to stabilize employment,and encourage them to increase fiscal spending to ensure the smooth realization of the annual goal of stabilizing employment.Third,through a series of policy adjustments to key groups such as college students,migrant workers and laid-off workers in urban areas,the quality structure of the labor force will be continuously optimized,and fiscal and tax policy support will be strengthened,so as to achieve fuller and higher quality employment and open a new journey of high-quality development in China.The innovations of this paper are as follows:first,in the analysis of the impact of fiscal policies on the labor supply structure,the previous literature mainly analyzed the univariate(exemption amount)analysis and only analyzed the gender supply of the labor force adjusted by individual income tax.Based on previous studies,multi-dimensional data types are selected to make the research more empirical and credible.The univariate(exemption amount)analysis of previous scholars is expanded to micro-simulation analysis of the effect of simultaneous changes in the policy of excmption amount,tax rate and additional deduction,and a new research conclusion is drawn:First,compared with the two tax reform activities in 2008 and 201 1,the tax reform activities implemented in 2019 have a more significant effect in the three aspects of the threshold and tax rate range as well as the six additional deductions.Second,the reform of individual income tax has a significant impact on female workers in urban collective-owned enterprises and other enterprises,as well as on lower-income groups and lower-middle income groups.Second,in the analysis of the impact of fiscal policy on the total labor demand,previous literature mostly analyzed the impact of a single data on the total labor demand and multi-focus tax analysis on the impact of the total labor demand(or employment).Based on previous studies,the systematic generalized moment estimation is used to analyze the impact of fiscal policy on the total labor demand,which makes the results more objective and accurate.Based on the previous panel data,the four new variables of fiscal expenditure policy and tax policy,positive employment subsidy and negative employment subsidy are analyzed,and the research finds that fiscal expenditure policy has a more significant impact on the total labor demand than tax policy.Third,in the analysis of the impact of fiscal policy on the labor market equilibrium,previous literatures mainly from the perspective of fiscal policy,with DSGE model as the main method,through the analysis of its co-activity with monetary policy on domestic output and other aspects of the impact on economic fluctuations,or from the perspective of fiscal policy.And from the perspective of monetary policy(macroeconomic fluctuation)to labor flow or labor wage cost analysis.Based on previous studies,DSGE model is used to analyze the impact on labor market welfare and equilibrium from the perspective of fiscal policy and labor market,and new research conclusions are drawn;First,from the analysis of the overall labor market welfare,if a single fiscal policy tool is selected,the most suitable tool is government fiscal expenditure;The optimal policy combination is the integration of income tax,commodity tax and fiscal expenditure.Second,compared with tax shock,fiscal expenditure shock has the greatest impact on labor market welfare.Income tax and commodity tax are next.