| China,the world’s largest developing country,is facing problems such as increasing aging,gradually disappearing demographic dividend,diminishing marginal returns to traditional capital,lack of resources and environmental pollution,and extensive economic growth that increases the number of production factors through the accumulation of a large number of cheap factors is no longer sustainable.In the context of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and the era of digital economy,the Chinese government regards the transformation of economic growth driver as a new driver of economic development,and the development of new factors of economic growth brings about the transformation of economic growth driver and the transformation of economic growth mode.However,with the accumulation of new factors of economic growth,the transformation of economic growth driver and the transformation of economic growth mode,this has brought a series of economic and social problems,especially the impact of the transformation of economic growth driver on the labor market,which may lead to structural unemployment and widening income gap.It is worth studying to explore the internal mechanism and active and effective response to the negative impact of economic growth driver conversion on the labor market,and how to mitigate the negative impact of economic growth driver transformation on economic and social development and actively and effectively respond to it.This paper constructs three theoretical models,including economic growth driver system,economic growth driver transformation,labor employment structure and skill premium,which constitutes the theoretical framework of this paper.Firstly,the model of system of driving forces for economic growth is constructed,and the components of system of driving forces for economic growth are obtained,including factor structure kinetic energy,industrial structure kinetic energy,demand kinetic energy and heterogeneous factor kinetic energy,and the change of economic growth driving source depends on the change of kinetic energy system.Secondly,based on the task model,the impact of economic growth driver conversion on labor employment structure and the heterogeneous impact of regions with different economic development levels are constructed.According to the derivation results,with the transformation of economic growth driver,the employment structure has changed polarized.When the transformation of economic growth driver occurs in areas with low economic development levels,employment polarization is manifested in a greater increase in the proportion of low-skilled labor.When the transformation of economic growth driver occurs in areas with high economic development level,employment polarization is reflected in the increase in the proportion of high-skilled labor employment.Finally,on the basis of the task-element model,the task-heterogeneity factor model is derived,and a theoretical model of heterogeneity factors,employment structure and skill premium is constructed.In terms of employment structure,expansionary factors make the employment structure polarization,when the alternative factors have the strongest substitution of skilled labor,the employment polarization trend intensifies,while when the alternative factors replace low-skilled or high-skilled labor the strongest,the employment polarization trend slows down.In terms of wage polarization,the expansion factor makes the wage structure polarization change through the two channels of productivity effect and new job creation,and the alternative factor regulates the labor skill premium through the two channels of productivity effect and substitution effect,when the negative impact of alternative factors on the medium-skilled labor force is stronger,the wage polarization trend intensifies,and when the negative impact of alternative factors on low-skilled labor or high-skilled labor is stronger,the wage polarization trend slows down.Based on the theoretical model,this paper empirically test the impact of economic growth driver transformation on the employment structure and skill premium of heterogeneous labor mainly using provincial panel data from 2001 to 2020.Firstly,based on the economic growth driver system,the economic growth driver conversion index system is constructed,the economic growth driver conversion index is measured to measure the process of economic growth driver conversion,and the typical facts of the changes in the employment structure of the labor market are analyzed by using multiple classification methods.Using the panel two-way fixed effect model,the impact of economic growth driver conversion on labor employment structure is empirically tested,and the heterogeneous impact of economic growth driver conversion on labor employment structure in different economic development levels is analyzed.Secondly,as the most critical economic growth driver,the influence of new factor driver on the employment structure of labor is further analyzed.The knowledge factor index,technology factor index and data element index were constructed by using the time series global principal component analysis method,and the kinetic energy index of new factors of economic growth was synthesized,which empirically tested the impact of the kinetic energy of new factors of economic growth on the employment structure of labor,and further studied the heterogeneous influence of knowledge factors,technical factors and data factors on the employment structure of labor.From the empirical test of different regions,the employment structure of different regions basically shows polarization changes,and the employment polarization is mainly dominated by knowledge factors.The knowledge factors in the driver of new factors of economic growth increase the proportion of high-skilled labor employment in areas with high economic development level and the proportion of low-skilled labor employment in areas with low economic development level increase more,which is consistent with the impact effect of economic growth driver transformation.From the perspective of influence mechanism,the development of the service industry profoundly affects the mechanism of the kinetic energy of new factors of economic growth on the employment structure,and empirically tests the regulating effect of the development of the service industry on the kinetic energy of new factors of economic growth and the employment structure.In the micro-task mechanism test,the micro-mechanism of labor employment structure change was analyzed by CGSS data from 2003 to 2018,and the labor force employment was divided into unconventional cognitive task employment,conventional cognitive task employment,unconventional physical task employment and conventional physical task employment,and the relationship between the development of new factor kinetic energy and individual choice of heterogeneous work tasks was empirically analyzed,and the possibility of heterogeneous labor to engage in certain work tasks under different kinetic energy levels of new factors was predicted.The fundamental causes of changes in the employment structure of the labor force were analyzed.Finally,the influence effect and mechanism of the kinetic energy of new factors of economic growth on the skill premium of labor are empirically tested,the typical facts of the change trend of skill premium are analyzed,and the overall effect of the new factor of system of driving forces for economic growth on the skill premium of labor is empirically obtained,and the influence effect of knowledge factors,technical factors and data factors on labor skill premium is further analyzed,and on the basis of calculating the productivity effect,new job creation effect and substitution effect.The multiple parallel mediation effect model was used to test the influence mechanism and channel of new factor kinetic energy on labor skill premium.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,the transformation of China’s economic growth driver has exacerbated the polarization of labor force employment,increased the employment proportion of low-skilled labor force and high-skilled labor force,and decreased the employment proportion of medium-skilled labor force.Regions with different economic development levels The phenomenon of employment polarization has appeared in both countries,but the specific manifestations of employment polarization are different.The higher the level of economic development,the faster the conversion of economic growth driver,the higher the proportion of high-skilled labor force employment,and the greater possibility of transforming medium-skilled labor into high-skilled labor;the lower the economic development level,the faster the economic growth driver.The slower the transformation progresses,the more the employment proportion of low-skilled labor increases,and the more likely it is that middle-skilled labor will be transformed into low-skilled labor.Second,the improvement in the development of new elements of economic growth has led to a polarization trend in China’s overall employment structure,in which the knowledge factor dominates the polarization change trend of the employment structure,and the technology factor and data factor play a restraining role in the employment polarization.From the perspective of the transmission mechanism,the kinetic energy of the new elements of economic growth has a nonlinear impact on the employment structure and is transmitted through the development of the service industry.With the proportion of the service industry increasing,the development of the kinetic energy of the new elements of economic growth has intensified the trend of employment polarization,and the employment of low-skilled labor The share has risen over high-skilled labor.From the perspective of the micro-task mechanism,the emergence of employment polarization is closely related to the increase in unconventional tasks.The rapid growth of unconventional physical tasks and unconventional cognitive tasks has increased the demand for high-skilled labor and low-skilled labor,while the demand for medium-skilled labor has relatively decreased.,the employment structure showed polarized changes.Third,the development of new factor kinetic energy will increase the high-low skill premium and reduce the medium-low skill premium,and wage changes will show a polarization trend.The development of knowledge elements will increase the high-low skill premium,while the development of data elements will reduce the middle-low skill premium.According to the task-heterogeneity factor model constructed in this paper,the knowledge factor is an expansion factor,and the improvement of its development level is the main factor for the increase of the high-low skill premium.The complementarity between the knowledge factor and the high-skilled labor force is stronger.The creation effect and productivity effect increase the high-low skill premium;data elements are substitutable factors,and the improvement of their development level leads to the reduction of the medium-low skill premium.The data elements are more complementary to low-skilled labor,while Skilled labor is relatively more substitutable,so the data element reduces the medium-low skill premium mainly through the substitution effect.This paper has the following policy recommendations:First,with the deepening of the transformation of economic growth driver,the structural unemployment of medium-skilled labor will continue to increase,and government should provide job transfer training and professional skills training for medium-skilled labor so that they can better To adapt to the new requirements of the transition of economic growth driver on the labor force.Second,according to the changing characteristics of the employment structure in different regions,formulate corresponding employment policies according to local conditions.For regions with relatively fast transformation of economic growth driver,focus should be placed on satisfying their demand for high-skilled labor,increasing the cultivation and introduction of high-skilled talents,promoting the employment of high-skilled labor,cultivating high-quality employment growth poles,and guiding industries to The transfer to the central,western and northeastern regions promotes the spread of employment opportunities to the central,western and northeastern regions;for regions where the transformation of economic growth driver is relatively slow,great attention should be paid to the phenomenon of the rapid increase in the proportion of low-skilled labor force employment.Strengthen vocational education and training for low-skilled labor,adapt to the individual and diverse needs of current consumers,and improve their employment quality.Third,improve the digital infrastructure,promote employment and entrepreneurship in the digital economy,and support the development of multi-channel flexible employment and new employment forms.Accelerate the all-around integration of the digital economy and the real economy,cultivate new industries,new formats and new business models,use digital industrialization and industrial digitization to expand employment capacity,and promote new economic forms such as platform economy,network economy,and sharing economy to drive labor employment.Fourth,pay attention to the phenomenon that the skill premium of medium-skilled labor income has decreased.Improve the vocational skills training system to make the medium-skilled labor force more compatible with high-income tasks with higher knowledge factor density,promote the transfer of medium-skilled labor force to high-difficulty tasks,and alleviate the problem of widening income gap.At the same time,give full play to the role of digital elements in raising the skill premium of low-skilled labor and reducing the income gap,guide the middle-skilled labor to shift to the tasks of low-skilled labor,and restrain the expansion of the income gap caused by the development of new drivers of economic growth. |
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