Research On The Influencing Factors Of Family Fertility In China

The population issue is a fundamental,global and strategic issue concerning national development,and changes in population development dynamics are related to the prospects of China’s economic and social development.Currently,China’s mortality rate is at a relatively stable stage,and the level of fertility is crucial to China’s future demographic structure and development trend.China has implemented a family planning policy since the 1970 s.Under the dual effect of the family planning policy and rapid socio-economic development,China has rapidly achieved a demographic transition and a rapid transformation of fertility patterns.The implementation of the family planning policy has relieved China’s enormous population pressure,improved population quality,and provided a favorable demographic environment for China’s rapid economic development.However,with the cumulative effect of rapidly declining birth levels,structural problems such as the intensification of population aging and the persistence of low fertility levels over time have also begun to emerge.To promote balanced population development,China began to improve its population and family planning policies,implementing the “single two-child” policy in 2013,the “full twochild” policy in 2016,and the full liberalization of the “three-child” policy in 2021.In2013,the “single two-child” policy was implemented;in 2016,the “comprehensive two-child” policy was implemented;and in 2021,the “three-child” policy will be fully liberalized.The pace of China’s fertility policy adjustment has been accelerating,and under the premise of policy relaxation,family fertility decisions become a key factor in policy effectiveness.Based on classical fertility theories and existing studies,this paper constructs a theoretical framework for analyzing family fertility decisions in China in the context of low fertility levels,taking into account the real situation in China.Based on the existing theories of demographic transition,economic theory of fertility,cultural theory of fertility,second demographic transition theory,and low fertility model,and taking into account the implementation and adjustment of China’s fertility policy,the development of modernization,and the influence of differential patterns,this paper constructs a framework for analyzing family fertility decisions in the context of China’s low fertility level from three levels: family,social,and macro.The core of this paper’s research framework is to consider the social embeddedness of people’s behaviors,arguing that behavioral decisions are influenced by the social environment in which they live,including macro-environmental factors,meso-environmental factors,and microenvironmental factors.These environmental factors not only directly influence fertility decisions of fertility subjects,but also indirectly influence fertility decisions through shaping fertility perceptions.On the other hand,these environmental factors are the areas where fertility policies and related supporting measures can play a full role in improving fertility levels by creating a fertility-friendly social environment.Based on the above analysis,this paper will explore the influencing factors of family fertility in China at three levels: macro,meso,and micro,in order to improve the theoretical framework of fertility and provide references for subsequent policies.As for micro-level influencing factors,we mainly consider the influence of family of origin fertility pattern on fertility intention and fertility behavior.The family of origin is an important site of socialization,and the father’s generation has an important influence on the beliefs,preferences,and values of the offspring.This paper empirically examines the effects of family-of-origin fertility patterns on offspring’s fertility decisions in two dimensions: fertility intentions and fertility behaviors,and explores the intergenerational transmission effects of Chinese family fertility patterns and their mechanisms of action.The study finds that Chinese family fertility patterns have intergenerational transmission characteristics,and the fertility behavior of the father has a significant impact on the fertility intentions and fertility behaviors of the offspring,and the higher the number of siblings in the family of origin,the higher the fertility intentions and fertility behaviors of the offspring.The strength of intergenerational transmission of fertility patterns varies according to individual heterogeneity,showing that males are larger than females and rural residents are larger than urban residents,and increases with birth cohort.The intergenerational transmission effect of fertility works mainly through the socialization process and the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status.For meso-influencing factors,the effect of peer group social interaction on fertility is mainly considered.As a social decision,fertility decision is influenced not only by individual preferences or wishes,but also by the wishes and behaviors of surrounding peers.This paper constructs neighborhood peers and occupational peers from two perspectives of spatial proximity and social proximity,and uses a spatial econometric model to empirically investigate that fertility intentions and fertility behaviors are positively influenced by neighborhood peer effects and occupational peer effects,and that fertility intentions and fertility behaviors of other subjects in the same neighborhood and the same occupational nature have significant contributing effects on the fertility intentions and fertility behaviors of the actors;different characteristics.Different groups are affected by the peer effect to different degrees,specifically,rural residents’ fertility intention and fertility behavior are more affected by the peer effect than urban residents,and men are more affected by the peer effect than women;the influence of the peer effect varies according to the life course.In terms of macroeconomic factors,the impact of economic development on fertility cannot be ignored.This paper analyzes the influence of regional economic development level on fertility from two dimensions: fertility intention and fertility behavior based on a hierarchical model,and the research results show that there is a significant negative influence of regional economic development level on fertility intention and fertility behavior.Individuals in provinces with higher levels of economic development have lower fertility intentions and fertility behaviors.The effect of economic development level on fertility intention and fertility behavior varies depending on individuals’ household,gender,and birth cohort.Specifically,the effect of economic development level on fertility intention and fertility behavior is higher for urban household registration and women,and decreases with birth cohort.With respect to macro policy factors,fertility policy has a guiding influence on family fertility in China.The central government has been adjusting and optimizing its fertility policy in response to the changing trends in fertility levels in China,with the introduction of “single two-child” in 2013 and “universal two-child policy” in 2016.Both policy adjustments have contributed to the fertility level in China.This section empirically examines the effects of the “single two-child” policy and the “universal two-child policy” on household fertility intentions and fertility behavior using a propensity score double difference method.The “single two-child” has a significant effect on the fertility behavior of households,and the target households are more likely to have a second child after the implementation of the fertility policy.The “universal two-child policy” has a significant effect on the fertility behavior and willingness to have children,and the target families have increased their fertility intention and behavior after the implementation of the policy.The effect differs among different groups,specifically,rural households,institutional households,western region households,and those born in 1980-1990.This paper improves the theoretical framework of family fertility decision making in China,explores the effects of family of origin,peer group,economic development and fertility policy on fertility intention and fertility behavior,and provides a theoretical explanation of the causes of China’s current low fertility level,which helps to judge the future demographic situation,suggest the direction of future policy optimization,and provide relevant references for achieving balanced population development in China.Based on the findings of this paper,we propose the policy recommendation of“improving the supporting fertility policy → building a new fertility culture → reducing the burden of childcare and alleviate fertility anxiety”.