Research On The Fertility Desire And Fertility Behavior Of Women Of Childbearing Age In Hainan Province Under The Background Of The Comprehensive Two-Child Policy

At present,China's fertility rate is maintained at a relatively low level,and the process of population aging is accelerating.How to promote moderate population growth is an issue that the country urgently needs to solve.In January 2016,China began to implement a comprehensive twochild policy.However,since the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy,the policy effect has not achieved the expected results.As the main body of reproductive behavior,women of child-bearing age will directly affect their reproductive behavior,which will have a significant impact on China's future fertility level and population structure changes.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the fertility desire and fertility behavior of women of child-bearing age to improve the current low fertility level in China.This paper uses the data from the 2017 National Fertility Survey of Hainan Province,and uses Poisson regression,multivariate logistic,structural equations,comprehensive evaluation models based on entropy weight method and hierarchical clustering to analyze the fertility desire,fertility behavior,and the relationship between the two.Based on questionnaire data and macro data,a comparatively objective evaluation of the effectiveness of the comprehensive two-child policy in Hainan Province was conducted.The study found that:1.Fertility behaviors:(1)The custom of having fewer children has been formed in Hainan Province;(2)There has been an imbalance in the sex ratio at birth in Hainan Province;(3)Although late marriage and late childbirth have become a common practice in Hainan Province,women of child-bearing age in Hainan Province have the phenomenon of pregnancy before marriage;(4)In Hainan Province,women of child-bearing age start and end their childbearing later and have advanced maternal age;(5)Among women aged between 50 and 60 in Hainan Province,the fertility behavior of women with higher education,relatively stable jobs and higher income has declined.2.Fertility intention:(1)The fertility intention level of women of child-bearing age in Hainan Province is higher than the actual fertility level;(2)There are differences in the fertility willingness of women of child-bearing age in Hainan Province with different ages,regions,education levels and job types;(3)Women of child-bearing age have a preference for boys;(4)Most women of childbearing age do not plan to(re)birth;(5)Among the people of child-bearing age who have already had a child,there are significant differences in age,region,number of brothers and sisters,and sex of existing one child between those who plan to have a second child and those who do not plan to have another child;(6)Economic factors have no obvious influence on the second child planning of women of child-bearing age in Hainan Province.3.The relationship between fertility desire and fertility behavior:(1)The gender preference of women aged 40-49 years in Hainan Province has been satisfied in actual fertility behavior;(2)Women aged 40 to 49 in Hainan Province have a strong desire to have children,and there is a gap between the ideal and the reality;(3)In the process of fertility transformation into fertility behavior,women's fertility desire has a bearing on fertility behavior;(4)The effect of previous fertility behaviors on women's fertility intentions in Hainan Province is significant.4.The implementation effect of the comprehensive two-child policy in Hainan Province:(1)The current status of low birth rate in Hainan Province is not optimistic.The universal two-child policy has some short-term effects but little long-term effects,which cannot fundamentally change the current situation of the low fertility level in Hainan Province;(2)The universal two-child policy can make up for the lack of fertility impetus in Hainan Province;(3)Since the implementation of the universal two-child policy three years ago,the implementation of the universal two-child policy in Hainan Province has not achieved the effect of promoting gender balanced development,easing the pressure of population aging and increasing the supply of labor force.