Research On The Dividend And Spillover Effect Of Human Capital In China From The Perspective Of Space

Under the background of population aging,the gradual disappearance of quantitative "demographic dividend" in China weakens labor-intensive advantages and reduces the driving force of traditional factors for economic growth.However,it will form the human capital dividend of high-quality which include the change of population structure,the improvement of labor quality,the increase of the proportion of high-quality labor,and the innovation and reform measures such as science and technology.The formation and expansion of human capital dividend will be the critical factor to alleviate the adverse impact of the disappearance of quantitative "demographic dividend",to achieve medium-high speed growth and move towards medium-high level on China economy.Previous studies about the effect of human capital on economic growth in China mostly relied on the new economic growth theory.It didn’t take the spatial differentiation and fluidity characteristics of human capital elements into account,and ignore the potential impact of human capital on economic growth from adjacent regions.The development of New Economic Geography(NEG)fill the gap.The theoretical hypothesis of its Core-Periphery model indicates that human capital aggregation can generate spatial effect from the interaction between the increasing returns of scale economy and transportation cost brought by distance,and it will affect the economic growth around adjacent regions.NEG provides a new analytical framework for human capital on economic growth.However,it still needs a further research on integrating the theory of NEG and new economic growth.Based on the theoretical and practical background of the economic growth in China,it’s important to explore how to convert from the quantitative "demographic dividend" to the "human capital dividend",and optimize the spatial distribution of human capital in China.By enlarging the human capital dividends through the human capital accumulation spatial spillover effect and achieving unification on productivity and welfare of human capital,that will be sure ofsignificance to sustainably promote the high-quality development of China economy and society.Changing the spatial distribution of human capital in a country or region under a given scale of human capital can drive the economic growth through the effects of scal economy and spillover on human capital flow and agglomeration.In this sense,new economic geography and new economic growth theory can get through.By integrating New Economic Geography and New Economic Growth theory,the paper firstly defines and distinguishes the concepts related to human capital dividend,and expounds the basic theories of the formation of human capital dividend which include the population transition theory and the core-periphery theory.Secondly,we systematically review literature based on the transformation process from quantitative demographic dividend to human capital dividend,including the term of quantitative demographic dividend,population transition and human capital accumulation,human capital and economic growth,and the spatial spillover effect of human capital on economic growth.Thirdly,with the help of geographic information system(GIS)and spatial exploratory analysis method(ESDA),we describe the spatial characteristics of population transformation,spatial distribution and correlation of human capital in different regions.Fourthly,we build the inner logic and evolution path from population quantity dividend to human capital dividend based on the theory of demographic transition,rational expectations.Furhter more,we build the mechanism of spatial spillover and its varies of human capital dividend based on the core-periphery of the new economic geography.Fifthly,we put the demographic dividend and human capital dividend into the same framework,and divide the human capital dividend into education human capital and health human capital to distinguish the impact of demographic dividend and heterogeneous human capital on China’s regional economic growth based on China’s urban panel data.At the same time,we put the spatial concept into the economic growth expansion model,which combind the geographic distance and economic distance weight matrix.We estimate the trend of the spatial effect of human capital in different areas of economic aggregation or market boundaries based on the change of the distance between cities.Sixthly,based on the data of China Labor-force Dynamics Survey(CLDS)from 2012 to 2016 and macro level city panel data,we adopt a multi-levelspatial model to investigate the effects of regional human capital on labor income and employment to comprehensivly observe of human capital dividend effect.Finally,we put forward the development strategy and guiding mechanism of human capital dividend on spatial perspective.The paper shows that: On the perspective of spatial correlation,both education and health human capital show the spatial autocorrelation characteristics of High-High or Low-Low aggregation.Related to regional economic development,education human capital is always positively correlated with regional per capita GDP,while health human capital is positively correlated with regional per capita GDP at the beginning and negatively correlated with regional per capita GDP at the end.By measuring the spatial effect of human capital on economic growth through the model of spatial spillover effect of human capital on education and health,it is found that the dividend of human capital in China will alleviate the gradually disappearing quantitative demographic dividend.From the perspective of spatial dimension,the spatial siphon effect of quantitative demographic dividend and healthy human capital on economic growth is significant in the whole region,and the spatial diffusion effect of educational human capital on economic growth is significant.In terms of local space,the estimation results based on different distance thresholds show that with the gradual weakening of spatial barriers between regions or the gradual increase of human capital potential,the marginal effect of human capital on economic growth between regions will gradually increase.The conclusion indicate that the quantitative demographic dividend in economic growth will eventually evolve into the human capital dividend.The unbalanced distribution of employed population and healthy human capital will widen the gap of economic growth between cities.The improvement of regional educational development will promote the economic growth of surrounding areas,and the reasonable use of the spatial diffusion effect of educational human capital will effectively narrow the gap of economic growth between regions.In addition,weakening the "spatial barrier" will expand the human capital dividend.Further,by comprehensively investigating the time-space effect of human capital dividend,in terms of spatial dimension,the estimation results of the whole region time-space effect show that: the wage income of local labors is driven bythe spatial diffusion effect of the education human capital in surrounding areas,but this effect will gradually disappear as time goes by.At the same time,the wage income increase of local laborers is restricted by the spatial siphon effect of health human capital in surrounding areas.However,this effect will be highlighted and gradually enhanced over time.The results of local time-space effect estimation show that the market barriers between Chinese cities are gradually weakened,that is,when the potential of human capital in education and health covered by each city is greater,the spatial spillover effect on labor’s wage income also increases.The grouping estimation results show that:(1)Based on individual labors,the improvement of health human capital can significantly reduce the wage gap of gender,household registration and skill;the improvement of education human capital can reduce the gender wage gap,but increase the wage gap of household registration and skill.(2)In terms of spatial dimension,the spatial diffusion effect of education human capital will be more beneficial to the growth of wage income level of urban and high-skilled labors.Health human capital has a time-delay spatial siphon effect on individual labors,and in the long run,it has a larger marginal spatial siphon effect on the wage income of vulnerable labor groups including female,rural and low-skilled.The estimation results based on regional differences show that:(1)Compared to eastern region,education and health at the individual level have a greater marginal increasing effect on the wage income in the central and western regions.(2)Regional education human capital plays a more significant role in wage income increase of labor in the central and western regions.The spatial diffusion effect of education human capital for labors in the central and western regions is higher,and the spatial siphon effect of health human capital for labors in the central and western regions is also greater.(3)The simulation shows that the market barriers between Chinese cities are gradually weakened,that is,when the potential of human capital in education and health of city is greater,its spatial spillover effect on labor’s wage income is greater as well.The time-space effect analysis based on the employment dividend of human capital shows that: the education human capital in neighboring regions can increase the employment level of the region through the spatial diffusion effect,but this phenomenon will gradually disappear with the passage of time andeventually increase the employment pressure of the region,and it is more significant in the eastern region.In terms of regional health human capital,the improvement of medical and health level in neighboring regions will significantly reduce the level of unemployment in the region in the long run and improve the level of employment in the labor market.In local space,it still shows that: with the gradual weakening of spatial barriers and improvement of market integration level,the spatial effect of human capital dividend will also gradually increase.As for the development strategy and guiding mechanism of human capital dividend.Firstly,it is necessary to improve the efficiency of investment in education and health.On the perspective of space,we should establish a good order and cooperative relationship between regions,so as to make the spatial diffusion effect of education human capital sustainable,achieve incentive compatibility between regions,and internalize the external characteristics of spatial effect of human capital.In order to promote the public investment in health capital,we should choose the equalization of health investment strategy among regions for implementing the appropriate preference to regions with insufficient health resources,and weaken the spatial siphon effect of health human capital.At the same time,we should pay attention to the development strategy of regional correlation of human capital.For example,the developed regions(beijing-tianjin-hebei region,Yangtze river delta,Pearl river delta,etc.)should not be limited to the coordinated development of adjacent provinces,but should pay attention to the expansion of central and western regions with greater marginal effect,so as to enhance the contribution of human capital to economic growth.Secondly,it is necessary to develop the employment dividend of human capital,pay attention to the construction of labor employment guidance mechanism,actively develop the dividend of healthy elderly human capital,improve the female labor participation rate and create a fair environment for labor market employment.Finally,in terms of improving the human capital flow mechanism,we put forward that establish limitless internal boundary space mechanism and improve the segmentation to promote the integration of labor market,and to achieve a fair,open and orderly competition.At the same time,we should promote the equilibrium long-term on human capital flow according to improving the external flowing and guiding mechanism of human capital.