Measurement Of The Global Financial Cycle And Analysis Of Its Characteristics

This paper uses BP filter and turning point analysis to extract the global financial cycle,the global economic cycle,the financial variable cycle and the financial cycle of each country,and analyzes the characteristics of the univariate cycle,the relationship between the financial cycle and the economic cycle,the relationship between some major countries and the global financial cycle,and the regional convergence of the financial cycle.The study found that stock prices have a higher convergence with the global financial cycle in both the turning point method and the filter method,in which developed countries and the world exhibit the same characteristics(consistency index exceeds 0.7),besides global,developed and developing countries' Credit variables and housing prices are basically the same in terms of consistency with the global financial cycle;medium economic cycles in the global,developed and developing economies have strong convergence with global financial cycle,but short periods are irrelevant;The volatility of the expanding and contraction phase of financial cycles is much larger than the economic cycle.The occurrence of financial crisis is accompanied by the emergence of financial and economic cycle peaks,and financial contraction will aggravate the real economy recession,financial expansion will promote the recovery of the real economy;the United States,Germany and the United Kingdom are more synchronized with global financial cycle,while China is the opposite;Europe has strong regional convergence of financial cycle,and developing countries have no regional convergence of financial cycle,what's more,developed countries show a weak regional convergence of financial cycle in the consistency index of the two countries and Asia is manifested in the consistency index of multinational countries,in addition,this paper also found that if there is a regional convergence of trade cycles in a region,there is a high possibility of regional convergence of financial cycles.This article includes seven chapters.The first chapter is the introduction,which mainly introduces the research background,research significance,research ideas,research methods and the innovations and deficiencies of this paper.The second chapter is the literature review,which summarizes the main research results of the financial cycle in domestic and foreign literatures.The third chapter introduces the data selection and methods of financial cycle extraction.The fourth chapter is the univariate analysis,which mainly studies the long-short term relative fluctuation degree,the basic characteristics of cycle and the periodic convergence between the two variables.The fifth chapter studies the relationship between financial cycle and economic cycle,analyzes the basic cycle characteristics and cycle synchronization of the two,and visually observes the relationship between financial crisis and the peak of economic and financial cycle through drawing method,and accurately explains the impact of the financial cycle on the economic cycle through calculation method.The sixth chapter analyzes the characteristics of the financial cycle at the national level.This chapter first selects six major countries based on the GDP ratio and analyzes its relationship with the global financial cycle.Secondly,it adopts the two-two national cycle consistency index and multi-national cycle consistency index and other methods analyze the regionality of the financial cycle,and compare the regionality of the trade cycle and the financial cycle convergence,and analyze the connection between the regional convergence of the trade cycle and the regional convergence of financial cycle.The seventh chapter is a summary of the research results of this paper and some policy suggestions.