| As the foundation and leading force of a country’s economic development,the manufacturing determines a country’s comprehensive strength and international competitiveness,and is the key to transformation,upgrading and high-quality development.China’s manufacturing is facing high dependence on foreign core technologies,weak innovation capabilities and imperfect innovation systems.Improving technological innovation capabilities is the essential path to realize the transformation and upgrading and to improve the quality and effect of development for China’s manufacturing industry at this stage.At the same time,changes in external conditions such as the restructuring of the world economic structure and the change of information technology also put forward new requirements and challenges for the high-quality development of manufacturing industry.In this context,it is an important issue how can China’s manufacturing industry choose an appropriate technological path based on its own factor endowments to promote the development of economy and manufacturing industry from the high-speed growth stage to the high-quality development stage by rationally allocating innovative resources,improving technological capabilities and strengthening key technologies,which needs to be resolved urgently.In order to answer the above question,this paper constructs an analysis framework of internal and external factors for the choice of appropriate technological paths in late-developing countries.From the internal factors and external conditions,we can determine the appropriate technological progress path of late-developing countries,so as to perfect the theoretical research of technological path selection of late-developing countries.In previous studies,the choice of technology paths in late-developing countries mostly took into account the intrinsic factor endowment conditions to determine the appropriate technology paths with cost advantage.With the drastic changes in the world economic landscape and the transformation of the domestic development stage,the impact of the external environment changes on the choice of technology path is gradually highlighted,not only by changing the original mode of production and technoeconomic paradigm affects the cost of technology path,but also provides a window of opportunity for the development of late-developing countries,which in turn amplifies the differences in the benefits of different technology paths.Therefore,in the new development stage and context,late-developing countries need to combine the characteristics of external factors on the basis of factor endowment conditions,so as to optimize the allocation structure of research and development resources and choose the appropriate technology path that can truly promote late-developing countries to achieve technological catch-up and transformation and upgrading.On this basis,the paper takes the high-quality development of manufacturing industry as the guide and proposes the inner mechanism of technology path selection to promote the high-end,intelligent,service and green development of manufacturing industry.Based on the in-depth analysis of the influence and mechanism of global value chain embedding,Internet development,productive services and environmental constraints on the choice of technology path,the paper draws the optimal decision equation of research and development resources allocation for late-developing countries under the condition of factor endowment with the help of the analytical paradigm of "North-South" technology diffusion,so as to accelerate the process of high-quality development.In order to promote the shift of manufacturing industry from factor-driven to innovation-driven and accelerate the process of high-quality development.Specifically,the paper focuses on the following:First,the paper explores the choice of manufacturing technology paths and high-end development in late-developing countries based on the perspective of global value chain embedding.By analyzing the impact and mechanism of participation in the division of labor in global value chains on the choice of technological paths,and with the help of the "North-South"technology diffusion theoretical model,the basis for the choice of appropriate technological paths in the process of embedding manufacturing industries in global value chains in latedeveloping countries is deduced.On this basis,by matching WIOT data and Chinese manufacturing industry data,the appropriate technological path for high-quality development of Chinese manufacturing industry is empirically tested.It is found that participation in the division of labor in global value chains provides more opportunities for technology spillover to manufacturing industries in late-developing countries,enabling them to access the industrial technology frontier and achieve efficiency gains and technological progress at a lower cost,but at the same time,the existence of low-end lock-in and competition effects also highlights the importance of independent research and development.In the process of embedding in the global value chain,late-developing countries face a more competitive market environment and higher market requirements.There are large differences in the added value of intermediate products corresponding to the technology patents formed by different technological paths,and only through independent research and development can they break the technological barriers and obtain the core technology and competitive advantage of industrial development.However,during the period under examination,participation in the global value chain division of labor shows a significant negative impact on the transformation of manufacturing technological paths in general due to the lack of manufacturing industry’s own factor endowments and the introduction of imitation technological paths is more conducive to the increase of value-added rate compared to independent research and development.However,further research shows that with the deepening of global value chain embedding,the positive effect of technological path transformation on high-quality development is gradually manifested.Moreover,with the upgrading of intrinsic factor endowments,timely transformation of technological path and increasing the ratio of independent research and development investment will become the only path to achieve high-quality development of manufacturing industry.In the context of the new international division of labor and trade,timely change in technological path,increase investment in research and development,to promote manufacturing to the high-end of the value chain to climb and achieve high-quality development is of great significance.Secondly,this paper explores the issue of technological path selection for intelligent transformation of manufacturing industries in late-developing countries in the context of Internet technology development.The Internet has become an important ecological environment for manufacturing technology innovation and technological progress,which also puts forward new requirements and challenges for the choice of manufacturing technological paths.In this paper,we analyze the impact and mechanism of the Internet on the choice of manufacturing technological paths and explore the basis for the choice of appropriate technological paths for manufacturing industries in late-developing countries to achieve highquality development in the context of new-generation information technology development.Based on theoretical analysis,empirical tests are conducted using data from Chinese manufacturing micro enterprises.The study finds that the Internet has brought new opportunities for intelligent transformation and development of new industries for manufacturing industries in various countries,prompting manufacturing industries to drive industrial development with independent research and development,so as to seize the firstmover advantage in the industrial Internet revolution and achieve technological catch-up.At the same time,with the accelerated application of the Internet in industry,data application and data security have also forced the manufacturing industry to maintain data security by increasing independent research and development investment and developing data analysis and application capabilities.Therefore,Internet development has a significant positive impact on the independent research and development investment in manufacturing industry,and is a strong engine to promote manufacturing industry to realize independent innovation-driven development.Moreover,with the deepening of the development and application of the Internet,the positive effect of technological path transformation on the improvement of manufacturing production efficiency is gradually enhanced.Further research also finds that the Internet promotes the process of technology path transformation by promoting the improvement of manufacturing research and development efficiency mainly through the indirect effects of resource integration,information dissemination and market demand.The results in the heterogeneity test show that the Internet shows a differentiated impact on the transformation of technological paths of manufacturing enterprises with different industry characteristics,regions,and ownership structures,and there are some differences in the appropriate technological paths of each enterprise in the process of Internet development.The conclusion of the study implies that in the new round of information technology revolution,China’s manufacturing industry should strengthen its integration with the Internet and build a first-mover advantage with artificial intelligence as the core through technology path transformation,so as to achieve transformation,upgrading and high-quality development.Again,based on the development trend of integration of productive services and manufacturing,this paper analyzes the appropriate technology paths that can promote efficiency improvement and high-quality development in the process of productive service input.Based on the analysis of the intrinsic mechanism of productive services on the choice of manufacturing technology path and high-quality development,this paper proposes an optimal decision equation for research and development resource allocation in late-developing countries by incorporating productive services and intrinsic factor endowment conditions into the model with the help of the "North-South" technology diffusion paradigm.And further,using Chinese manufacturing micro-enterprise data and WIOT data,we empirically test the influence mechanism of productive services on technology path selection,and verify the appropriate technology paths that can drive the manufacturing industry to achieve high-quality development in the process of productive services input The results of the study show that productive services generate innovation,feedback and cost effects,and have a significant contribution to the transformation of manufacturing technology paths.Productive services provide technologyintensive elements and specialized learning opportunities for enterprises’ independent research and development activities,enhancing their innovation capabilities and willingness to innovate;and through the feedback effects of marketing,after-sales,branding and other services enable enterprises to access the direction of demand information changes and technological innovation trends,facilitating the development of new technologies and products through technology path transformation.In addition,productive services also reduce the production costs of enterprises through resource integration and optimal allocation,enabling them to focus on core technology links and the research and development of new products,and promote the process of transforming manufacturing technology paths,thus gaining competitive advantages and achieving high-quality development.With the embedding of service-oriented elements,independent research and development and original innovation are suitable technology paths for manufacturing industries to achieve high-quality development.From the perspective of enterprise heterogeneity,for manufacturing enterprises with different regions,technology levels and ownership attributes,there is some variability in the impact of service-oriented factor inputs on their technology path transformation,and in the servitization process,increasing independent research and development inputs also shows a differentiated impact on total factor productivity enhancement.In general,it is important to accelerate the process of manufacturing service and timely conversion of industrial technology path to enhance the production efficiency of manufacturing industry and promote the high-quality development of manufacturing industry.Finally,from the perspective of environmental constraints,this paper focuses on the selection of appropriate technology paths for manufacturing industries to achieve green and sustainable development.Accelerating energy conservation and emission reduction is the way to high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.In the face of environmental constraints,how can the manufacturing industry choose the path of technological progress to meet the requirements of green and sustainable development while achieving increased production efficiency?Based on the perspective of low-carbon city pilot policies,the above issues are explored using a multi-period double-difference model.The study shows that the implementation of the low-carbon city pilot policy significantly promotes the process of manufacturing technology path transformation,and promotes the manufacturing industry to invest more in independent research and development activities in technology path selection through the regulatory and incentive effects,so as to meet the requirements of low-carbon green development.Moreover,under environmental constraints,the choice of manufacturing technology paths depends not only on the implementation of low-carbon city pilot policies,but also on the intensity of environmental regulations.As the intensity of regulation increases,the manufacturing industry is gradually shifting from paying emission fees to responding to environmental constraints by increasing investment in research and development of green technologies.Therefore,a moderate increase in the intensity of environmental regulations can strengthen the boosting effect of low-carbon city pilot policies on technology path selection.In addition,compared to command-and-control environmental regulation,market-incentive-based regulatory tools have a more significant impact on technology path selection,facilitating the process of manufacturing technology path transformation by giving more flexibility to innovative agents.Further research found that the choice of technology paths in manufacturing industries in low-carbon pilot cities is constrained by the intrinsic factor endowments,and the promotion effect of low-carbon pilot policies on the transformation of manufacturing technology paths becomes more obvious as the level of economic development,human capital and technological capabilities are upgraded.The results in the regional heterogeneity test show that the effect of carbon emission constraint on manufacturing technology path transformation is more significant for the eastern regions and large cities with higher development level,while in the central and western regions and small and medium-sized cities,the low-carbon city pilot policy has not yet played an effective role in manufacturing technology path selection.Therefore,regions with a higher degree of development and more abundant factor endowments are more willing to achieve low-carbon sustainable development through technology path transformation.A scientific and systematic analysis of the impact of environmental regulations on technology path choices has both academic value and practical significance for ecological civilization construction and high-quality development. |
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