| Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China’s economy has grown rapidly and has become the world’s second largest economy;people’s living standards have improved significantly,and a historic leap from food and clothing to a well-off society has been achieved.However,the sustainable development of the Chinese economy is currently severely restricted by the rapid energy consumption and the deteriorating ecological environment.The people are paying more and more attention to the environment and health.At present,China’s total carbon emissions have reached the first place in the world,and it faces greater pressure to reduce emissions."The 14 th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China and the Outline of Long-Term Goals for 2035" pointed out that speeding up the promotion of green and low-carbon development and formulating an action plan for peaking carbon emissions before 2030.At the same time,President Xi Jinping has stated clearly to the world many times: China will implement the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030,strive to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by2060,and make greater contributions to the global response to climate change.The peak of total carbon emissions before 2030 is a prerequisite for achieving carbon neutrality before 2060,and the earlier the carbon peak time and the lower the peak,the less costly and greater the benefits of achieving carbon neutrality afterwards.China strives to achieve a clear carbon emission reduction target by 2030.However,as it is still a developing country,it is still in the stage of industrialization and medium-tohigh-speed economic growth,and its resource endowment is relatively poor.There is a long way to go in the process of reducing emissions.Although China has achieved remarkable results in reducing emissions and has built the world’s largest carbon market,the proportion of renewable energy consumption has continued to increase,and the energy structure has been continuously optimized.Due to the insufficient development of the carbon market,emissions reduction in the carbon market has limited effect in achieving emissions reduction targets.Renewable energy subsidies will be gradually cancelled,and further efforts are still needed to reduce emissions.China’s carbon emission reduction policy evaluation research results are fruitful,but the lack of comprehensive evaluation research on the carbon peak scenario under the background of the new era cannot provide a scientific basis for the choice of carbon emission reduction path under China’s carbon peak target.In view of this,this paper proposes the following three research questions: First,simultaneously introduce carbon emission reduction policy modules such as carbon trading,carbon tax and renewable energy power generation subsidies,and build a multi-sectoral recursive dynamic CGE model based on China’s carbon peak target;second,study the effects of a single carbon emission reduction policy and a mixed carbon emission reduction policy;third,research on comprehensive evaluation of carbon peak scenario.First,according to the basic principles of the CGE model,a multi-sectoral recursive dynamic CGE model of China including production module,trade module,economic entity module(including residents and government module),social welfare module,equilibrium and macro closure module and other modules is constructed.Based on the input-output table of China in 2017,the 2017 SAM table containing 29 departments was constructed.According to the research needs of this article,the power sector is subdivided into six sectors: thermal power,wind power,photovoltaic power,hydropower,nuclear power and biomass power.And set the production function substitution elasticity,import and export function substitution elasticity,carbon emission coefficient,energy conversion standard coal reference coefficient and benchmark scenarios.The results of the baseline scenario show that without imposing other policies,China’s total energy consumption target,energy structure control target,carbon intensity target,and carbon peak target cannot be achieved by 2030.Then the model is tested.The model and the established program have passed the robustness test and can be used for simulation analysis.Based on the constructed dynamic CGE model,the economic and environmental impacts of a single carbon trading market,a single renewable energy power generation subsidy policy,and a single carbon tax policy under different scenarios are simulated and analyzed.The simulation results show that single carbon trading and single carbon tax policies can promote the optimization of energy consumption structure,accelerate the decline of energy intensity and carbon intensity,increase the proportion of renewable energy consumption,and curb the growth of total energy consumption and total carbon emissions,but have a negative impact on real GDP and residents’ utility,and will also cause price fluctuations to a certain extent.The single renewable energy power generation subsidy policy will lead to a certain degree of growth in total energy consumption and energy intensity,but it can accelerate the optimization of energy consumption structure and decrease in carbon intensity,curb the growth of total carbon emissions,promote the growth of residents’ utility,and have a negative impact on real GDP and energy intensity,and have a limited impact on real GDP and prices.A single carbon tax policy and a single renewable energy power generation subsidy policy are difficult to achieve the peak of carbon before 2030;while under the single carbon trading market scenario,when the annual average carbon intensity decline rate is 4.5%,the total carbon emissions can reach a peak of 10.911 billion tons in 2029,and the relative loss of GDP in 2030 is 0.35%;when the average annual decline rate of carbon intensity is 4.8%,total carbon emissions can reach a peak of 10.686 billion tons in 2027,and the relative loss of GDP in 2030 is 0.71%.Then,based on the constructed dynamic CGE model,the economic and environmental impacts of the mixed carbon emission reduction policy under different scenarios are simulated and analyzed.The simulation results show that,compared with the single carbon trading market scenario,the three policies of carbon trading and renewable energy power generation subsidy mixing,carbon trading and carbon tax mixing,carbon trading-carbon tax-renewable energy power generation subsidy mixing can achieve the carbon peak target with less real GDP loss and resident utility loss,cleaner energy consumption structure,lower total carbon emissions and carbon intensity,and more stable price levels.In addition,comparing the three hybrid carbon emission reduction policies horizontally,the hybrid policy of carbon trading,carbon tax and renewable energy power generation subsidies has the best effect in restraining the growth of total carbon emissions,accelerating the decline of carbon intensity,optimizing the energy structure and stabilizing prices.And the real GDP and resident utility losses are relatively small,but the effect of total energy consumption and energy intensity control has declined slightly.Under the mixed carbon emission reduction policy scenario,total carbon emissions can peak at 10.393 billion tons in 2027 and10.745 billion tons in 2029.The relative loss of GDP in different carbon peak scenarios in 2030 is different,with a minimum of 0.06% and a maximum of 0.60%.Based on the principles of the evaluation index system and the current research status of the carbon emission reduction policy evaluation index system,combined with the research objectives and basic data of this article,a comprehensive evaluation index system for the effect of the carbon peak policy has been determined,including economic development,environmental governance,energy control and society Influencing factors in the four dimensions of effect.On this basis,Delphi-AHP are used to determine the weight of the evaluation index.At the same time,in order to ensure the scientificity and accuracy of the evaluation results,this paper uses the VIKOR algorithm multi-attribute evaluation method to measure and rank the 22 comprehensive effect indexes of carbon emission reduction policies that have achieved the peak of carbon before 2030.The ranking results show that the comprehensive effect of carbon peaking policy is the best combination of carbon trading,carbon tax and renewable energy power generation subsidy policy;the carbon peaking policy of a single carbon emissions trading system has the worst comprehensive effect;the comprehensive effect of other carbon peaking policies is in the middle.In addition,compared to a single carbon emission reduction policy,a hybrid carbon emission reduction policy has a better overall effect on economic development,environmental governance,energy control,and social benefits.This paper has the following innovations: First,carbon emission reduction policy modules such as carbon trading,carbon tax and renewable energy power generation subsidies were introduced simultaneously,and a multi-sectoral recursive dynamic CGE model based on China’s carbon peak target was constructed.Second,quantitatively calculated the difference between the mixed carbon emission reduction policy and the single carbon emission reduction policy on the real GDP,energy control and resident utility under the similar carbon peak scenario;it proves that the mixed carbon emission reduction policy can reduce the economic cost To achieve the peak of carbon before2030,and analyze the economic and environmental synergies of the mixed carbon emission reduction policy.Third,the AHP-VIKOR model for comprehensive evaluation of China’s carbon peak scenario is constructed,which innovatively combines the AHP-VIKOR evaluation model with the CGE model.Through the establishment of a comprehensive evaluation index system for China’s carbon peak scenario,a multi-dimensional comprehensive evaluation of the carbon peak scenario provides a scientific basis for the choice of carbon emission reduction paths under China’s carbon peak target.And based on the research conclusions of this paper,it is proposed to determine specific targets for peak carbon emissions,accelerate the construction and operation of the national carbon trading market,improve the supporting policies for renewable energy development,impose a carbon tax at the right time. |
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