| Labor migration cross regions and the relationship between it and the evolution mechanism of regional economic divergence,especially the coordinated development of regional economy,has been one of the core propositions in the field of regional economics.From the perspective of the development process of various regions,it is an effective way for backward regions to catch up with developed regions by making full use of the second-mover advantage and technology absorption.Especially as the barrier of factor flowing between domestic regions is broken,the knowledge exchange brought by skilled labor migration between regions should promote the convergence of regional technology gap,and finally promote regional economic convergence.However,no matter for different countries or for different regions in a country,the theoretical expectation of convergence caused by technology spillover and heterogeneous labor migration has never been empirically verified.Chinese regional economic growth in northeast and west even shown serious phenomenon of double superposition of capital and labor losses,besides,the technological gap between eastern coastal areas and inland areas continuously widening.In addition,the divergence of the real economy caused by the labor migration can still be made up through the inter regional commodity trade,but it is difficult to curb the price divergence of the regional virtual economy through the unified real estate price regulating policy for the rise of rigid demand and the induced speculative demand impact.In order to answer this question,this paper studies the regional heterogeneous labor migration and economic divergence,by constructing the2-regional general equilibrium framework,explains the internal mechanism of heterogeneous labor migration and its internal mechanism on a series of economic divergence problems,such as regional technology divergence,industrial agglomeration,housing price divergence and factor allocation.Closely focusing on the logic of heterogeneous labor migration,this paper systematically studies the internal mechanism of heterogeneous labor migration and its interaction mechanism with economic divergence by constructing a 2-regional general equilibrium framework,using the combination of numerical simulation and empirical test.First of all,based on the determinants causing heterogeneous labor migration across regions,and three dimensions of regional technological evolution,industrial agglomeration and housing price divergence which heterogeneous labor migration caused,summarizes the transmission mechanism of heterogeneous labor migration on regional economic divergence,finds the theoretical rules of factor pursuing technology and construct the basic framework of 2-regional general equilibrium model to describe the characteristics of heterogeneous labor migration within a country;Secondly,based on the provincial macro data,this paper describes the heterogeneous labor migration cross regions and the dynamic characteristics of the evolution of regional technology gap;Finally,we extend and refine the basic framework of the 2-regional general equilibrium model,explore the regional economic divergence at the level of technology divergence,the industrial structure agglomeration and the non-productive asset bubble.Specifically include revealing the endogenous feedback mechanism between heterogeneous labor migration cross regions and the transformation of technological progress paths between regions,and tests the threshold effect of heterogeneous technological progress paths on regional economic growth by subdividing factors into R&D factors and productive factors;studying the induced and crowding out effects between heterogeneous labor migration and industrial agglomeration,and makes a spatial econometric test on the heterogeneous spillover effect caused by heterogeneous labor migration through subdividing heterogeneous labor and industrial structure;expounding the endogenous mechanism of labor skill structure influence on the regional real estate price and makes a spatial econometric test on the relationship between the heterogeneous labor migration and the regional housing price,by introducing the real estate sector and further subdividing the heterogeneous labor factors.Based on results of the above three different levels of economic divergence,this paper further makes a comprehensive empirical test on the divergence of heterogeneous factors flowing cross regions.At the same time,aiming at the reason of regional economic divergence revealed by the above three levels,the policy of “functional area” establishing,national coordination planning of endowment insurance and implement real estate regulation has been simulated to clarifying whether the policies could bridging the regional economic gap,reducing the losses of labor migration and tame inflation of real estate.The main research contents and relevant conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,on the basis of describing and summarizing the characteristics of factors flowing cross regions in China,this paper combs the existing 2-regional model and its predicted regional economic convergence or divergence,and puts forward a new 2-regional general equilibrium basic framework for analyzing the heterogeneous labor migration cross regions and regional economic divergence.Firstly,this paper makes a mathematical derivation of the internal mechanism of factor flowing contained in this framework and its predicted characteristics of regional economic divergence,reveals that the determinant driving heterogeneous factor flowing lies in the difference of factor marginal return,and the root of the difference of factor marginal return lies in the difference of factor marginal contribution to output,which means fundamental reason caused heterogeneous factors flowing is regional technology gap.Based on the nature of economic divergence contained in the basic framework of the model,this paper calculates the regional economic evolution trend caused by different forms of technology gap between regions through numerical simulation,specifically including: when the marginal contribution of capital and labor to output in a certain region is inferior to that in other regions,the elements will inevitably lose irreversibly,regional economies gap will continuously divergence;when the marginal contribution of one factor(capital or labor)to output in a region is inferior to that in other regions,and another factor contribution has advantages,there exist a possibility of convergence.Especially when capital biased technological progress occurs,it can significantly narrow the regional economic gap and promote the factors back-flowing,which means there exists the phenomenon of factors pursuing technology.According to the model nature and numerical simulation results obtained from the basic framework analysis,using Chinese provincial data,the cumulative Malmquist decomposition of total factor productivity between regions is carried out,and the cross-regional agglomeration of production factors and R&D factors is analyzed by local spatial autocorrelation analysis and LISA analysis.It is found that Chinese R&D factors are gradually agglomerated to the eastern coastal area with technological advantages,formed a significant High-High type club agglomeration characteristics.For the western and northeast regions with relative technological disadvantages,it formed the Low-Low type club agglomeration characteristics of technological disadvantages and R&D factors continuously losing.For the central region,it showed the Low-High type club agglomeration characteristics of factors continuously losing and slowly technological progress.Combined with the model nature of the2-regional general equilibrium analysis framework this paper proposed and the factors flowing characteristics shown by the actual data,the theory law of factor pursuing technology has been found and R&D factors agglomerated to technologically developed areas.Second,this paper empirically tests the possible σ convergence,relative β convergence and club convergence characteristics among different regions in China by means of spatial econometrics.From the test results of regional σ convergence,whether measuring the coefficient of variation or Theil index,the heterogeneous labor migration doesn’t cause economic gap between regions show a single divergence or convergence trend under the national sample,but has significant phased characteristics.At the same time,in the sub sample test of distinguishing clubs,it finds that the convergence and divergence characteristics of the eastern region are very similar to those of the national sample,while the western and central regions do not show obvious convergence or differentiation characteristics.It not only shows that the change characteristics of per capita output in different regions are heterogeneous,different club has its own heterogeneous evolution laws of per capita output,but also shows that the convergence or divergence characteristics within and among clubs are also unstable.In addition,the empirical results of regional economic β convergence show that there is no significant β convergence across the country.No matter what kind of spatial weight matrix is adopted,the regional economic convergence are not significant,and show a certain degree of divergence.Finally,the empirical results also show that the characteristic club convergence is not tenable.The eastern and western regions show weak convergence characteristics,while the central and northeast regions show divergence characteristics,and the divergence and convergence characteristics of the central and western regions are not significant.Third,this paper makes an depth study on the different technological evolution paths and regional economic gap under the R&D factor flowing.Firstly,by subdividing the heterogeneous factors into R&D factors and productive factors,subdividing the heterogeneous labor into skilled labor and unskilled labor,a 2-regional endogenous growth model including different technological progress paths is constructed.Through decomposing technological progress into technological imitation and technological innovation,it is found that when regions mainly rely on technological imitation to achieve technological progress and economic growth,the imitation driven economic growth model will absorb surplus labor from rural areas on a large scale.On the one hand,the increase in the number of labor dilutes the per capita capital stock and drives the continuous inflow of capital under the law of diminishing marginal return.On the other hand,the increase in the number of labor and capital inflows also expanded the scale of production.Under the background of the double superposition of diminishing marginal returns and second-mover advantages,the regions that take the lead in realizing technological imitation or faster technological imitation can achieve more rapid economic development.When the regional imitation dividend gradually disappears and the economy gradually transitions to R&D driven,the release of social surplus labor also gradually tends to stop.With the closing of the demographic dividend,the migration of ordinary labor between regions shows the characteristics of trade-off.At this time,the number of skilled labor in the region determines the regional R&D ability.If the region can not better control the number of skills loss,its economy will fall into a negative cycle of R&D factor loss and economic contraction.Secondly,the key conclusions of the theoretical model are empirically verified by provincial macro data.The empirical results show that the heterogeneous factors flowing cross regions will not significantly promote regional economic convergence while skilled labor and R&D expenditure have a significant positive effect on promoting economic growth,besides,the role of key technology introduction variables on regional economic growth fluctuates and its significance is unstable.Furthermore,in the process of threshold test on regional R&D and imitation capability,it is found that R&D variable will continuously and significantly promote regional economic growth,while the promotion of technology imitation has a turning point: when the regional technology level is relatively backward and second-mover advantage is obvious,technology imitation plays a significant role in promoting the economy growth;when the regional technical level is gradually improved and the imitation dividend is gradually disappearing,if R&D resources are continuously invested in imitation,it will lead to misallocation of resources,which is unfavorable to economic growth.Fourth,this paper studies the internal mechanism between heterogeneous labor migration and industries agglomeration.Firstly,by simplifying the equation of technological progress and further refining the heterogeneous labor and industrial structure,this paper depicts the linkage mechanism between manufacturing labor and service labor,and deduces the different steady states and critical conditions of industrial agglomeration under heterogeneous labor migration.It points out that the migration of labor employed by manufacturing industry will induce the large-scale migration of labor employed by service industry,the development of high technology industry needs the corresponding scale of service industry to cooperate with it.At the same time,the two-regime spatial Dubin model is adopted to empirically verify the critical conditions and theoretical laws of industrial agglomeration.The empirical results show that when the regional industrial growth mainly driven by research and development,the scale expansion brought by simple factor investment can not improve the regional capital deepening,modernization and industrial agglomeration.From the perspective of regional technology,whether the skilled labor plays a positive role in promoting regional industrial agglomeration depends on the regional technology level.The two regime spatial Dubin model finds that in the technologically advantageous areas,the agglomeration of skilled labor can indeed significantly promote regional industrial agglomeration,while in the technologically disadvantaged areas,the promotion of skilled labor agglomeration on industrial agglomeration can not be effectively played.This not only shows that the effect of skilled labor agglomeration on industrial agglomeration depends on the regional technology,but also proves that there is a threshold effect of technological progress.Appropriate development paths should be selected at different economic development stages and different technical levels.Fifth,in order to explore the heterogeneous labor migration and the mechanism of housing price formation,the interdependency relationship between the modern sector,the traditional service sector and the real estate sector is studied by introducing the real estate sector and further subdividing the heterogeneous labor,and clarifying the linkage mechanism between heterogeneous factors flowing and relative price changes in various sectors.First,by constructing the 2-regional general equilibrium framework including the non tradable real estate sector,through theoretical derivation and numerical simulation about the induced effects of heterogeneous labor migration and the relative balance between the real estate price and its crowding out effect,we reveal that the regional labor skill structure is the fundamental reason for the regional real estate bubble and capital deepening.At the same time,the provincial macro data are used to empirically verify the internal mechanism of the theoretical model.While confirming the good nature of the theoretical model,the empirical results find that skilled labor agglomeration not only improves social labor productivity and purchasing power,but also the high profits of the real estate industry attract capital from real to virtual.These two elements have a significant positive impact on the maintenance of housing price inertia.Sixth,aiming at the internal mechanism of the divergence caused by the three levels of technology divergence,industrial agglomeration and non-productive asset bubbles leading by the heterogeneous factors flowing,this paper simulates the effect on promoting regional economic convergence and blocking labor drain by establishing the economic function zone,the national coordination planning of endowment insurance and real estate regulation.Firstly,this paper constructs a 2-regional dynamic computable general equilibrium model including heterogeneous labor migration and capital flowing and compiles the matched 2-regional social accounting matrix based on the input-output table.Secondly,simulating “functional area” policy through increasing the capital contribution share.The results show that the establishment of“functional area” can effectively make up the regional economic gap and block the continuously losses of factors,the characteristics of “factor pursuing technology” is obviously in results.Secondly,it simulates the impact of national coordination planning of endowment insurance.The results show that the transformation of endowment insurance system will slow down the labor migration in technologically disadvantaged areas to a certain extent,the labor reduction scale of service industry in technologically disadvantaged areas is smaller,but not obviously blocking effect on industrial labor migration.Finally,it simulates three kinds of real estate regulation policies: the tax on property in flowing-in region and whole country and restricted on real estate speculation.The simulation results show that restraining the irrational speculative demand for real estate has the strongest policy effect on alleviating the sharp rise of regional real estate prices and optimizing the interregional allocation of labor force. |
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