| At present,the international oil and gas market is unpredictable;geopolitical political games are complicated;international oil companies are increasingly competitive in highquality oil and gas resources;and Chinese overseas oil and gas investment faces many challenges.Moreover,resource countries have increased their control over their oil and gas resources,imposing strategies for integrated oil and gas projects.Compared with traditional overseas oil and gas investment,the FID investment of the integrated project has decisions high in complexity,large in difficulty coefficient and high in risk.However,due to the lack of a FID investment decision-making system for integrated oil and gas projects that is in line with international advanced standards and matched with international oil company processes,the Chinese oil and gas companies are weak in the highly competitive international oil and gas investment cooperation field.Therefore,this paper is aimed at the international research frontier of national energy strategy and energy economic system modeling,focusing on the final investment decision-making methods and applications of overseas oil and gas integration projects to develop the research.Comprehensive application of methods including operations research,Monte Carlo simulation method,technical and economic evaluation,scenario analysis and multi-attribute decision-making,from the perspective of the whole process of the final investment decision of overseas oil and gas projects,the identification of investment opportunities,evaluation of investment risks,project optimization selection,and production plan definition were utilized for modeling design and algorithm analysis.The main research work is reflected in the following aspects:(1)Established the FID conceptual model of the overseas oil and gas integration project;Analyzed the line of sight map,decision-making stage,decision-making procedures and decision-making elements of the FID management organization;and provided a systematic analysis tool for overseas oil and gas project investment decision-making.Aiming at the problems in the FID process of overseas oil and gas projects,based on the FID process and management differences between domestic and foreign oil and gas enterprises,the FID conceptual model for pre-investment decision of overseas oil and gas projects was designed from three stages,opportunity identification and risk assessment,project optimization selection and production decision-making.(2)Constructed a funnel model for FID opportunity identification of overseas oil and gas integration projects,identified investment opportunities for overseas oil and gas projects from 3 levels including the macro,meso and micro,and from the five dimensions of technology,economy,business,organization,politics and society,a risk assessment model for investment projects was established to serve the selection and production optimization for overseas oil and gas projects.With the basis of the analysis of the characteristics of integrated overseas oil and gas projects,a funnel model including macro,meso and microopportunity identification was established.It analyzed how to identify opportunities beneficial to investors from many potential project investment opportunities and with the use of scenario analysis techniques to form a portfolio of investment opportunities that are under different expectation.At the same time,based on clarifying the risk structure of overseas oil and gas projects,a risk assessment index system was established for oil and gas for field projects,pipeline projects and refinery projects,and the risk index of overseas oil and gas projects was gained through TOPSIS method.What’s more,based on economic evaluation model and Mont Carlo simulation method,the impact of different risk factors on the economic benefits of the project was evaluated.The opportunity identification and risk assessment results of integrated overseas oil and gas projects can provide data to support FID investment decisions.(3)For project selection and portfolio optimization in the investment process of overseas oil and gas projects,a multi-objective investment decision optimization model for overseas oil and gas integration projects was established,and the most optimal project portfolio under constraints including investment budget,production cost,internal economic income and resource output and international cooperation was obtained.On the basic of the0-1 planning model,a multi-objective optimization model for overseas oil and gas investment was constructed,and the investors’ decision-making objectives were maximizing investment returns,minimizing risks and maximizing recoverable reserves.With the use of the sort order weight method and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm to solve the problem,the optimal investment portfolio of overseas oil and gas projects under multi-objective optimization conditions was obtained and compared.(4)Established an economic evaluation model for various types of sub-projects(oil field projects,pipeline projects and refinery projects)of overseas oil and gas integration projects,and on this basis,developed optimization model of the overseas integrated oil and gas project through the production and operation processes of coupled integration projects which served the design and comparison of the production plan of the integrated project.The economic evaluation model of oil and gas fields,pipelines and refinery projects was constructed,and the production optimization model of overseas oil and gas integrated oil and gas projects was established based on the production characteristics of the integrated projects and the coordination and cooperation among various subprojects.A Chinese oil enterprise on the production plan decision of the West African multinational integration project in the process of overseas investment was used as an example of empirical study,the most optimal project of production plan was designed.Moreover,the optimal program results of the integration project under the four factors of investment cost,crude oil price,discount rate and corporate income tax were simulated and the influence of four factors on the design of the final investment decision-making scheme was summarized.The result could provide reference for investment decisions in overseas oil and gas projects for our country.This thesis deeply studied the final investment decision-making process system,decisionmaking mechanism applied by international oil companies in practice,and established the FID conceptual model,opportunity identification model,risk assessment model,project selection optimization model and production plan of overseas oil and gas integration projects,and decision-making model had formed a system of investment decision-making system for a wellestablished overseas oil and gas integration project,providing theoretical and methodological support for Chinese oil companies to cooperate in overseas oil and gas investment under the new situation.Moreover,by applying the overseas oil and gas investment data of a Chinese oil company,the model application of the FID investment decision-making method was applied,and the practicality and efficiency of the FID investment decision-making method was demonstrated.The investment decision-making method of the overseas oil and gas integration project established in this paper had high theoretical and practical significance for strengthening international cooperation and the “Belt and Road Initiative” and operating overseas oil and gas projects that were related to national energy security. |
PDF Full Text Request