Study On The Role Of Chinese Government Financing Guarantee In Promoting The Development Of Inclusive Finance And Its Sustainable Development

For a long time,small and micro businesses and "three rural" economies have been in a weak position.Due to their limited capital scale,non-standard financial system and low risk resistance ability,commercial financial institutions are not very motivated to provide services.And in recent years,due to the economic environment,especially since the new corona-virus,the financing problems of these groups have become more prominent.The government financing guarantee industry plays an important role in the development of inclusive finance,optimizing the allocation of financial resources,especially solving the problem of difficult and expensive financing for small and micro enterprises and "three rural" economies and other vulnerable groups,and can gradually narrow the gap between the development goal of inclusive finance and the actual coverage of credit services at this stage.With the strong support of the state,although the development of government financing guarantee has achieved remarkable results,there are still many problems and hidden dangers such as imbalance between supply and demand,prominent structural contradictions,and overdraft of local government finance.Compared with major developed countries,the operation effect of the government financing guarantee system is not good,the magnification of financing guarantee is much lower than that of developed countries,and the role of inclusive financial development has not been fully played.Based on the gap between what should be and what is true in the government financing guarantee industry,this thesis comprehensively uses the combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods to conduct an in-depth study on the role of government financing guarantee in promoting the development of inclusive finance and how to promote its sustainability.Firstly,this thesis constructs a mathematical model to analyze and study the three operating mechanisms of government financing guarantee institutions,and constructs a cooperative game model to explore the optimal risk sharing ratio in the risk diversification mechanism.It is found that:First,the three operating mechanisms of credit enhancement,risk diversification and cost sharing of government financing guarantee institutions make them have core advantages different from other financial institutions in the development of inclusive finance,and are also the basis for their role.Second,the number of Chinese government financing guarantee institutions and the scale of registered capital can significantly promote the scale of inclusive small and micro enterprise loans.Secondly,based on the operation mechanism analysis framework,this thesis further studies the main role of government financing guarantees in promoting the development of inclusive finance,and verifies it from an empirical perspective.It is found that:First,government financing guarantees can solve the bottleneck constraints faced by small and micro enterprises by lowering the threshold of enterprise loans,and alleviate the problems of adverse selection and moral hazard in the credit market by reducing guarantee rates,so as to play a role in expanding the coverage of inclusive finance.Second,the number of Chinese government financing guarantee institutions can promote inclusive small and micro enterprise loans,with a coefficient of 1.066 and a significant 1%level;The increase in the scale of registered capital guaranteed by the Chinese government can also promote inclusive small and micro enterprise loans,with a coefficient of 0.557,and a significant 5%significance level.Finally,this thesis discusses the sustainable development of government financing guarantee institutions and the entire industry from the macro and micro levels.It is found that:First,at the micro level,it can be seen through analysis that the key factors affecting the financial sustainability of government financing guarantee institutions are capital scale,average guarantee rate,guarantee magnification and net compensation ratio.Under the background of national policies guiding the low-rate operation of government financing guarantees,increasing the scale of capital,increasing the magnification of guarantees and reducing the net compensation ratio are the keys to its sustainable development.Second,at the macro level,by combing the successful experience of the construction of government financing guarantee systems in international developed countries,it can be found that the key to the sustainable role of the entire industry includes:government guidance and market-oriented operation are the core of the construction of government financing guarantee systems;Perfect architecture and stable funding sources are fundamental to the sustainable development of the government financing guarantee system;Sound laws and regulations and a developed market environment are important guarantees for the sustainable development of government financing.According to the analysis of the thesis,the following policy recommendations are put forward:reduce the level of the Chinese government’s financing guarantee system and simplify the operation mechanism;Further give play to the guiding role of the government and increase the proportion of government funding;Establish and improve industry support policies to enhance sustainable underwriting capacity;Establish an early warning mechanism for net compensation rate and continuously improve the ability of science and technology to prevent risks;Promote industry legislation,strengthen regulatory assessment,and promote the standardized development of business;Accelerate the establishment of a social credit system for small and micro enterprises.