Study On Maize Price Fluctuation And Its Effect In China

As an important strategic material,grain is directly related to people’s livelihood and social stability.However,China’s food security is still confronted with many challenges,mainly reflected in the following aspects:due to restrictions of resource and environment,the growth of grain output slows down;large fluctuations in grain prices affect market expectations and food security;the growth rate of farmers’ income is slow,which affects the enthusiasm of grain planting.As the crops with the largest yield and the largest sowing area among the three main grains,the fluctuation of maize price has become increasingly obvious in recent years.In addition,the diversified use and long industry chain of maize,and its price with the function of "signal transmitter" and "price stabilizer" make maize plays a fundamental role in stabilizing the price of agricultural products.In this context,the state has implemented many macro and industrial policies,especially applied price support policies to implement the macro control on maize.Based on this,from the perspective of price support policy reform,this thesis studies the impact of policy reform on maize price fluctuations,analyzes the guiding role of price fluctuations on production and farmers’income,and provides a reference for optimizing support policies,stabilizing market prices,guaranteeing maize production and farmer’ income,and achieving national food security.Based on a systematic review and analysis of existing literature,this thesis reasonably defines relevant concepts and research scope.From the perspective of price support policy reform,based on economic volatility theory,price volatility theory,price bubble theory,price volatility transmission theory,price expectation theory,and the basic analytical framework of modern economics,this thesis puts forward an overall analysis framework of maize price fluctuation and its effect from the perspective of price support policy reform.Based on this framework,from the perspective of identifying the characteristics of price fluctuation,evaluating the level of price fluctuations,comparing price fluctuation causes,and analyzing volatility transmission effects,this thesis further establishes a subdivision framework to carry out theoretical analysis and empirical research on the factors of price mechanism,and analyze the impact of price fluctuation on maize production and farmers’ income,to put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions according to the research conclusions.The main contents of this paper include the following four parts:Firstly,sort out the context of maize price support policy reform and establish the overall research framework.The implementation background,implementation logic,and implementation effect of temporary purchase and storage policy,"market purchase" and "subsidy" policy are analyzed respectively.On this basis,the logical starting point of the research is set up,and the overall analytical logical framework is constructed,which provides a basis for further research.Secondly,analyze the influence and policy effect of price support policy reform on maize price fluctuation.HP filter and GARCH-type models are used to analyze the characteristics and differences of maize price fluctuation under different policies.Using SADF,GSADF,and PSY methods,the price bubbles of maize and related agricultural products and the origination and termination points of bubbles are identified,and the fluctuation level of maize prices and its differences among policies are evaluated.ARDL model is used to analyze the causes and differences of maize price fluctuation under different policies.The VAR-BEKK-MGARCH model is used to analyze the difference of transmission of maize price fluctuation between markets under different policies.Thirdly,analyze the influence of price fluctuation on maize production and farmers’ income.The Nerlove model and provincial panel data are used to analyze the impact of price fluctuation on maize sown area and yield per unit area.At the same time,the effects of policy variables,technology adoption,urbanization rate,effective irrigation rate,and proportion of disaster on maize production are considered.The effects of price fluctuation on sown area and yield per unit area of maize are compared and analyzed.The impact of maize price fluctuation and price support policy reform on farmers’ income was also analyzed.Finally,summarize the research conclusions and put forward some countermeasures and suggestions.According to the above research,the research conclusion of this thesis is drawn,and countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the policy level,price level and production level.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,through sorting out the context of maize price support policy reform,it can be found that policy is an important tool to regulate prices.Secondly,price support policy reform has a great impact on maize price fluctuations.In terms of the characteristics of price fluctuation,the price fluctuation cycle of maize during the implementation period of temporary purchase and storage policy is long and relatively stable,while the price fluctuation cycle is short but the fluctuation range is large before and after the implementation of the temporary purchase and storage policy.In terms of price fluctuation evaluation,the maize price fluctuation level during the implementation period of the temporary purchase and storage policy is lower than that before and after the implementation of this policy,which verifies the effect of the temporary purchase and storage policy in stabilizing the maize price.In terms of the cause of price fluctuation,the same factor has different influence on maize price fluctuation in different policy intervals;In the long term,the temporary purchase and storage policy pushes up maize prices,while the reformed "market purchase" plus "subsidy",policy pulls down prices.In terms of price volatility transmission,the temporary purchase and storage policy weakens the guidance of maize futures on spot prices,and the integration degree of domestic and foreign markets and domestic markets in different regions is low.The "market purchase"and "subsidy" policies strengthen the mutual guidance of futures and spot prices and strengthen the integration of markets.Thirdly,maize price fluctuations have a significant impact on its production and farmers’ income.The results show that the long-term and shortterm price elasticity of maize sown area and yield per unit area are different.The short-term price elasticity of maize sown area is less than 1,while the long-term price elasticity of maize sown area is greater than 1,indicating that producers can adjust the supply by adjusting the sown area in the long run.The long-term and short-term price elasticity of maize yield per unit area are all less than 1.Price fluctuation has a significant positive effect on maize sown area and yield per unit area,but the long-term price elasticity of maize sown area is greater than the price elasticity of per unit area,indicating that in China’s maize production,producers adjust the sown area more effectively according to the change of maize price.The impact of corn price fluctuation on farmers’ operational income is more pronounced relative to their per capita income.The implementation of the "market purchase" plus "subsidy"policy has strengthened the guiding effect of maize prices on maize production and farmers’income.Finally,based on the research conclusions,this thesis raises some countermeasures and suggestions.Countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the aspects of optimizing maize supporting policies,reducing international trade disputes;stabilizing maize market prices,attaching importance to supervision of futures markets;perfecting price early warning mechanism,giving attention to maize production costs;cultivating new superior varieties of maize,enhancing the international competitiveness of maize seed industry;supporting the development of diverse entities,stabilizing maize production and farmers’ income.The main innovations of this paper include:First,based on the logic starting point of"policy reform—price fluctuations—production and income adjustment",the framework applies modern economics analysis framework,integrates price fluctuation characteristics,evaluation,cause,transmission and fluctuation effect,realizing the overall analysis of the relationship among policy reform,price fluctuation,and the production and income adjustment,and clarifying the scientific nature of the research problem.Second,the GARCH-type characteristics of maize price fluctuations reflect the dynamic characteristics of price fluctuations,and appropriate residual distribution can effectively identify the characteristics of fluctuations.In this thesis,GARCH-type model residuals are set to follow normal distribution,skewed normal distribution,T distribution,skewed T distribution,generalized error distribution,skewed generalized error distribution,respectively.The optimal model is identified by evaluating indicators.Based on the theory of rational bubble,identifying the "surge and slump" point in maize price fluctuation and evaluating price fluctuation level can provide data support for maize price fluctuation warning,so as to help take measures to deal with price fluctuation in advance.Thirdly,the influence and difference of policy reform on the formation mechanism of price and the influence of price fluctuation on maize production and farmers’ income are analyzed by using the framework of price fluctuation and effect analysis.The difference of price support policy reform on fluctuation characteristics,fluctuation level,fluctuation cause and fluctuation transmission of maize price,and the impact of price fluctuation on corn production and farmers’ income are studied in detail.Through comparing the differences in price formation mechanisms between different policy intervals and price fluctuation effects,this thesis provides ideas and support for the follow-up reform.