Research About The Impact Of Capital Market Development On Excessive Leverage Of Listed Companies

At present,the downward risk of the world economy has intensified and uncertainties at home and abroad have increased significantly,the risks and contradictions caused by the "deleveraging" of China’s real economy are gradually emerging.For example,the tightened financing environment has led to rising financing costs,rising non-performing loan rate of financial institutions,and accelerated economic decline.Therefore,how to effectively reduce and remove the unreasonable leverage of enterprises has become the important problem urgently to be solved in our economic development.Reality,often observed that some companies leverage though persistently high,but no was in financial trouble,and some businesses leverage although low,is still a financial crisis,this means that only on the basis of high and low leverage to judge the rationality of the lever and as the basis of "deleveraging" is not necessarily reasonable.Attention should be paid to whether companies are over-leveraged to help remove unreasonable leverage.Tracing the research history of the influencing factors of excessive leverage,it is found that almost all of these literatures imply the assumption of perfect capital market,and most of them focus on endogenous perspectives such as the characteristics of enterprises themselves and the characteristics of industrial capital structure,and rarely consider the influence brought by the development of capital market.But the capital market is not perfect.Enterprises can neither freely choose financing products nor obtain unlimited capital supply.Capital market development as the important direction of economic reform in our country,in our country finance operation have the function of the "lead a launch whole body",steady and healthy development of capital market is conducive to give full play to the resource allocation function,guide enterprises to make better financing decision,optimize financing structure,which in turn reduce the excessive leverage this resources mismatch phenomenon.Therefore,the research on the impact of capital market development on enterprise excessive leverage not only has practical reference significance but also has theoretical exploration value.Following the research paradigm of the determinants of micro-capital structure,this paper takes "literature review--theoretical analysis--simulation measurement--empirical study--expansion analysis" as the main logical line,takes the exogenous capital market as the macro research perspective,takes the excessive leverage of enterprises as the micro point,and takes the Chinese A-share listed companies from 2000 to 2019 as the research samples.This paper comprehensively uses the literature inductive deduction method,mathematical model deduction method,normative analysis method and empirical analysis method.Based on the theory of capital structure tradeoff,combined with the special condition of our country to relax the assumption of property rights consistency,this paper introduces the concept of "relative excessive leverage",to simulate the excessive leverage of state-owned and private listed companies,respectively.The paper constructs a complete analysis framework of capital market development from three perspectives: stock market,bond market and overall capital market.This paper explores the influence ways and action paths of capital market development on excessive leverage of listed companies from three dimensions of enterprise cross-section,economic cycle and monetary policy.The dynamic nonlinear threshold regulation effect of capital market development on the linkage mechanism between excessive leverage "deleveraging" and performance change of listed companies is thoroughly analyzed.This paper mainly draws the following four conclusions:First,the implicit government guarantee and the excessive leverage:(i)the implicit government guarantee not only covers the degree of excessive leverage of state-owned enterprises but also hides the fluctuation of excessive leverage;(ii)implicit government guarantees have slowed the pace of "deleveraging" of excessive state-owned enterprise leverage.Secondly,the development of capital market and the excessive leverage:(i)the development of capital market can effectively reduce excessive leverage in different degrees from three perspectives;(ii)the micro-cross section characteristics can significantly moderate the inhibitory effect of capital market development on excessive leverage;(iii)the restraining effect of capital market development on excessive leverage is significantly counter-cyclical;(iv)monetary policy has a significant negative impact on the restraining effect of capital market development on excessive leverage in time series.Third,capital formation capacity and capital allocation efficiency :(i)capital formation capacity and capital allocation efficiency play a significant mediating role in the impact of capital market development on the path of excessive leverage;(ii)the mediating effect in different capital markets is not only different in size,but also in different directions;(iii)the mediating effect of capital formation ability and capital allocation efficiency has a grouping effect under the micro-sectional characteristics;(iv)capital formation capacity and capital allocation efficiency did not play a mediating role in the economic upward trend,but played a significant mediating role in the economic downward trend;(v)both capital formation capacity and capital allocation efficiency play significant and distinct mediating roles under different monetary policies.Fourth,the linkage mechanism between "deleveraging" and performance change :(i)increasing efforts to "deleveraging" excessive leverage can effectively promote performance growth;(ii)under the regulation of capital market development,the linkage mechanism not only presents nonlinear deleveraging trend but also has nonlinear spillover effect;(iii)there are differences in the moderating effects of capital market development on the linkage mechanism from different perspectives;(iv)the threshold distribution of capital market development is significantly affected by the microscopic cross section characteristics;(v)compared with the economic cycle down,the capital market development plays a more significant role in regulating the linkage mechanism during the economic cycle up;(vi)compared with the relatively tight monetary policy,the moderating effect of capital market development on the linkage mechanism is more significant under the relatively loose monetary policy.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper puts forward four suggestions:(i)orderly guide state-owned enterprises to remove "implicit guarantee" from the government,and achieve "deleveraging" of excessive leverage through market mechanisms;(ii)multidimensional perfect multi-level capital market system,to take measures to reduce the excessive leverage;(iii)establish,ease and optimize the channel mechanism of capital market development affecting excessive leverage;(iv)we need to review unilateral deleveraging and shift to broad deleveraging.The innovation and contribution of this paper are as follows:(i)constructing a complete analysis framework of capital market development to provide a new perspective for the study of the factors influencing the excessive leverage.Literature review shows that few studies on the development of capital markets have been incorporated into the research paradigm of the influencing factors of micro excessive leverage.Therefore,this paper attempts to construct an analysis framework of capital market development including stock market,bond market and overall capital market from the perspective of exogenous capital market development,from three dimensions: enterprise cross-section,economic cycle and monetary policy.Comprehensively and systematically study the impact of capital market development on micro excessive leverage.(ii)putting forward the concept of "relative excessive leverage" and conducting mathematical model deduction based on the capital structure trade-off theory.Qualitatively,the existing research on excessive leverage is mostly limited to the absolute meaning level,which is suitable for judging the direction of excessive leverage,while the relative excessive leverage studied in this paper can not only be used to judge the direction of excessive leverage,but also can be used to compare the size of excessive leverage.Quantitatively,in order to reduce the historical dependence and subjective judgment of the existing empirical value method and linear regression method to quantify excessive leverage,this paper calculates excessive leverage through numerical simulation based on the capital structure trade-off theory.(iii)enriching and improving the research on the mechanism of capital market development affecting enterprise economic activities.This paper explores the transmission path of capital market development on excess leverage from different dimensions and perspectives,enriches the mechanism of capital market development affecting corporate economic activities,and fills the gap of existing relevant research.(iv)expanding the research on micro "deleverage" from the two dimensions of concept definition and research scope.From the perspective of concept definition,this paper expands the narrow sense of one-way linear "deleveraging" to the broad sense of "deleveraging" including "deleveraging" and "stabilizing leverage",giving it spatial structure significance and risk prevention significance.From the perspective of research scope,the previous research on the influence of performance level on leverage level is expanded to the research on the nonlinear dynamic spillover effect between excessive leverage "deleveraging" and performance change by taking the development of capital market as the threshold adjustment variable.