| China is the second largest economy in the world.With the rapid development of the economy and society,people’s demand for a better life is increasing day by day,and the requirements for food categories and quality are also increasing.This need has effectively promoted the rapid development of food cold chain logistics.According to the statistics of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing,the total demand for food cold chain logistics in China has increased from 233 million tons in 2019 to 302 million tons in 2021,with year-on-year growth rates of 13.69%and 13.96%for the two years,respectively.In 2021,the General Office of the State Council released the "14th Five Year Plan for the Development of Cold Chain Logistics".This is the first national level cold chain logistics development plan in China,elevating the high-quality development of cold chain logistics to a national strategy.Food cold chain logistics is a complex integrated system.Compared to normal temperature logistics,in addition to high investment,high operating costs,and significant losses in transit,it also faces various risks caused by outdated cold chain technology,shortage of cold chain talents,outdated cold chain facilities and equipment,low level of cold chain informatization,and incomplete cold chain logistics system.The China Federation of Logistics and Procurement estimates that the annual economic losses caused by food spoilage due to various defects in food cold chain logistics amount to hundreds of billions of yuan.The inefficient cold chain logistics process often leads to difficulties in business operations and is becoming a huge obstacle to the high-quality development of China’s food industry.This article takes the food cold chain logistics operation system as the main research object,and establishes a reliable risk warning model by identifying risks,selecting risk warning indicators,and optimizing indicator weighting for the food cold chain logistics operation system.The main research purpose of this article is to construct a reliable risk warning model to scientifically warn the food cold chain logistics operation system,timely and accurately grasp the system’s risk level,and then take targeted risk prevention and control measures to reduce the system’s risk losses.It has important theoretical and practical significance for effectively improving the risk management level of food cold chain logistics enterprises,increasing business efficiency,promoting high-quality development of the industry,and improving people’s consumption grade and quality of life.Starting from relevant theories and research status,this article uses literature analysis method to deeply sort out the literature and theories related to food cold chain logistics;Using grounded theory and risk correlation analysis method to identify and evaluate the risks of food cold chain logistics operation system throughout the entire process;Establish an R-GRA model to preliminarily select and optimize risk warning indicators for food cold chain logistics operation systems;Using C-OWA operator and D-S evidence theory to combine and assign weights to warning indicators;Establish an improved risk warning extension cloud model based on the basic theory of extension theory;Select the food cold chain logistics operation system of typical enterprises and conduct application research on the warning model;Establish a genetic algorithm model to control the risks of food cold chain logistics operation system;A food cold chain logistics risk prevention and control system has been established based on business intelligence technology.The main research content and conclusions are as follows.(1)Systematically sort out the relevant theories of risk management in the food cold chain logistics operation system.This article systematically reviews the basic theories of cold chain logistics,risks,accident causes,and risk warning,as well as the research results on identifying and warning risks in food cold chain logistics operation systems.Understand the industrial scale,development level,existing problems,and development trends of food cold chain logistics in China;Mastering the operation process of food cold chain logistics,clarifying the potential risks and key control technologies of each link in the food cold chain logistics operation system.(2)Fully identify the risks of food cold chain logistics operation system.Focus on the key links of the food cold chain logistics operation system,and deeply analyze the basic process of food cold chain logistics.Divide food cold chain logistics into four stages:warehousing,transportation,distribution,and sales under low-temperature conditions.Using grounded theory to extract 32 risk influencing factors around each link,the risk framework structure of the food cold chain logistics operation system has been determined.The risk correlation analysis method was used to quantitatively analyze the risk factors.After 1000 simulations,a risk factor relationship diagram of the food cold chain logistics operation system was drawn based on the centrality and causal degree of the risk factors,and the mechanism and degree of mutual influence between each risk factor were obtained.(3)Establish and optimize the risk warning indicator system for the food cold chain logistics operation system.In response to the current issue of the lack of scientific and comprehensive risk warning indicator system for food cold chain logistics,this article follows the basic approach of "qualitative analysis,quantitative analysis,and rational analysis" to establish and optimize the indicator system.On this basis,an R-GRA model is established to perform R-type clustering on criterion level indicators,grey correlation analysis is performed on intra class indicators,and indicator selection is carried out based on the degree of correlation.Feed back the optimized indicators to the expert group for rational analysis and identification,and make adjustments based on the actual operation of food cold chain logistics.Finally,a risk warning indicator system for the food cold chain logistics operation system consisting of 5 criterion indicators and 20 observation indicators was determined.This indicator system not only objectively and comprehensively grasps the overall risk of the food cold chain logistics operation system,but also provides risk warning from specific links,effectively improving the scientific,accurate,and practical nature of the warning.(4)Build a risk warning model for food cold chain logistics operation system based on improved extension cloud.Based on the dynamic,complex,and multi-objective characteristics of food cold chain logistics,an early warning model is established based on the matter element extension theory.During the research process,C-OWA operator and D-S evidence theory were used to determine the weights of indicators.Optimize the correlation function algorithm of the matter element extension model using cloud models.On the basis of maintaining the basic idea of developing the relationship between "intra class being the same and inter class being different" using the matter element extension analysis method into "intra class can still be divided into different levels",a forward cloud generator is used to fuzzify the classic domain of risk in food cold chain logistics operation system,making it more in line with the actual operation of food cold chain logistics operation system,and effectively improving the feasibility,practicality,and accuracy of the model.Comparing and analyzing the improved extension cloud model with the matter element extension model,it was found that the extension cloud model has significant advantages in both accuracy and effectiveness.(5)Conduct research on the application of risk warning models.Select SN Company as a representative food cold chain logistics enterprise,and conduct investigation and research strictly in accordance with the established warning indicator system.Using the extensible cloud model to conduct a warning rating on the risks faced by SN Company’s food cold chain logistics operation system,and testing the correctness and effectiveness of the improved extensible cloud model warning method.The verification proves that this model can not only provide early warning for the overall risk level of the enterprise’s food cold chain logistics operation system,but also for a certain link or aspect of the food cold chain logistics operation system.It is a relatively scientific and reliable early warning model.(6)Conduct research on risk prevention and control strategies for food cold chain logistics.On the basis of risk warning,establish a genetic algorithm model.Under the premise of effectively controlling risks within the no alarm interval,genetic algorithm is applied to the model to seek the optimal solution for the risk warning indicator system.The arithmetic mean of a series of optimal solutions is used as the upper limit of risk control for this indicator,thereby obtaining the risk control interval of the risk warning indicator system and achieving effective risk prevention and control.On this basis,conduct an in-depth analysis of the various warning situations and development trends faced by food cold chain logistics enterprises.Based on the optimization results,targeted risk prevention and control measures are proposed from the aspects of enterprise operation management,risk induction factors,risk emergency plans,etc.,effectively reducing the operational risks of the food cold chain logistics system.(7)Conduct research on the construction of a risk prevention and control system for food cold chain logistics.On the basis of carefully sorting out the basic processes and key links of risk monitoring,risk identification,risk assessment,risk warning,and risk prevention in the food cold chain logistics operation system,a targeted and in-depth analysis of the basic needs of food cold chain logistics enterprises for risk prevention and control business intelligence systems is conducted.On the basis of a comprehensive introduction to the key technologies of the food cold chain logistics risk prevention and control business intelligence system,a detailed task breakdown is carried out for the development of the system.We have specifically designed and developed the application architecture,data warehouse,ETL processing,OLAP data analysis,data visualization,and other main modules of the food cold chain logistics risk prevention and control business intelligence system,focusing on the main risk prevention and control business themes of low-temperature storage,cold chain transportation,low-temperature distribution,and refrigerated sales in the food cold chain logistics operation system.On the basis of completing the main research tasks,this article has made certain innovative progress in the following areas.One is to improve the risk correlation analysis method to solve the problem of quantifying the risk relationship in the food cold chain logistics operation system.The second is to establish an R-GRA model to solve the optimization problem of risk warning indicators for food cold chain logistics operation systems.The third approach is to use the C-OWA operator and improved D-S evidence theory for combined weighting,which solves the problem of determining the combined weights of the risk warning indicator system.Fourthly,the cloud model was used to optimize and improve the extension model of the physical element,and a risk warning model for food cold chain logistics operation system based on extension theory was developed.The fifth is to establish a genetic algorithm model to achieve optimal control of risk indicators.The sixth is to establish a food cold chain logistics risk prevention and control system based on business intelligence technology.The extension cloud model for risk warning of food cold chain logistics operation system established in this article has obvious wide applicability and effectiveness compared to traditional matter element extension models;The empirical analysis of the case enterprise proves that the model has high timeliness and accuracy.The research results of this article provide an effective analysis method for risk warning of food cold chain logistics operation system,and have significant reference value and guiding role for the high-quality development of China’s food cold chain logistics industry. |
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