Green Credit,Green Technology Innovation And Industrial Green Total Factor Productivity In China

This dissertation measures and analyzes typical facts about the current status of green credit development,the level of green technology innovation and Industrial Green Total Factor Productivity(IGTFP)in China in recent years.Secondly,based on the existing theoretical research,this dissertation will construct corresponding theoretical models and put forward theoretical research hypotheses at two levels: firstly,we will expand the green economic growth model of endogenous green technological innovation and put forward the macroeconomic growth hypothesis that green credit acts on green total factor productivity by promoting green technological innovation;secondly,we will construct the model of enterprise green technological innovation heterogeneity The second is to construct a heterogeneity model of enterprise green technology innovation and propose a micro-mechanism research hypothesis that green credit affects enterprise green technology innovation.Again,this dissertation measures and analyzes the evolution of green credit policy and the level of green credit,the level of green technology innovation and industrial green total factor productivity in China in recent years.In the empirical part,this dissertation tests the macro-effects research hypothesis and the micro-mechanism research hypothesis with the help of econometric methods,which consists of three main aspects: first,using provincial-year panel data to verify the direct impact and impact mechanism of green credit on IGTFP;second,using provincial-year panel data to verify the transmission paths of green credit on IGTFP:industrial structure,energy Third,we use Chinese listed companies-years panel data to verify the micro mechanisms of green credit impact on corporate green technology innovation.The research framework of this dissertation is as follows: Chapter 1 is Introduction,introduces the research background,research significance,research ideas,research objectives,research framework,research content,chapter arrangement and research methods of this dissertation.Chapter 2 defines relevant concepts and literature review;Chapter 3 is measurement and current status of green credit,green technological innovation and industrial green total factor productivity Chapter 4 constructs theoretical models and proposing research hypotheses;Chapter 5 uses panel data of 30 provinces from 2004 to 2020 to verify the direct impact of green credit on IGTFP and the impact mechanism.Chapter 6 uses the panel data of 30 provinces from 2004 to 2020 to verify the transmission path of green credit impact on IGTFP.Chapter 7 uses the panel data of Chinese listed companies from 2007 to 2020 to verify the micro mechanisms of green credit influencing firms’ green technology innovation.Chapter 8 concludes the dissertation and proposes corresponding policy recommendations and research gaps.Based on the aforementioned theoretical hypotheses and empirical analysis,the following research conclusions are drawn.First,through policy evolution and descriptive statistics,this dissertation concludes that:(1)In terms of green credit,China’s green credit has gone through a budding stage,a preliminary development stage,a rapid development stage,and a stage of quality and efficiency improvement.China’s green credit standards are gradually unified;green credit assessment and evaluation system is gradually established;the construction of environmental information disclosure mechanism is progressing rapidly;the proportion of green credit is increasing;the rate of excellent asset quality is high;green credit products and services are diversified;and local pilots of green finance are increasing.(2)In terms of industrial green total factor productivity,IGTFP and IGTC rose rapidly during 2004-2020,while IGEC remained basically unchanged.the rise of IGTFP means that industrial production is moving towards less pollution with the same amount of labor and capital input.The trend of green technological change is consistent with the trend of green total factor productivity,which indicates that IGTFP is mainly driven by green technological progress.In addition,the changes in IGTFP and IGTC can be divided into two phases: before 2012,the growth rate is slower;after 2012,the growth rate is faster.In the provincial ranking of IGTFP during 2004-2020,Inner Mongolia,Jiangsu,Tianjin,Beijing and Ningxia ranked in the top five,while Yunnan,Gansu and Heilongjiang ranked last.(3)In terms of green technology innovation,in terms of industry trends,green technology innovation in non-heavily polluting industries is higher than that in heavily polluting industries.From the time trend,before 2012,the green technology innovation of non-heavy pollution industries and heavy pollution industries showed an upward trend,while after 2012 the level of green technology innovation of heavy pollution industries decreased significantly,while the green technology innovation of non-heavy pollution industries increased at an accelerated rate,and the total green technology innovation level increased.After 2019,both declined.In terms of provincial comparisons,China’s green patents are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal provinces,including Jiangsu,Beijing,Guangdong,Zhejiang and Shanghai.This indicates that the distribution of green patents is uneven among provincial regions in China.Second,in terms of the impact of green credit on IGTFP,this dissertation finds that(1)This dissertation uses panel data of 30 provinces from 2004 to 2020 to apply two-way fixed effects to conduct a benchmark regression test on research hypothesis 1,which confirms research hypothesis 1 that green credit boosts IGTFP.for every 1% increase in green credit,IGTFP increases by 0.0086;for every 1-fold increase in green credit standard deviation,then the standard deviation of IGTFP significantly increases by 0.15 times.Moreover,this chapter finds that the impact of economic development level on IGTFP shows a significant inverted U-shaped relationship,i.e.,the "environmental Kuznets curve" hypothesis is also applicable to the Chinese industrial sector.In order to maximize profits and avoid environmental costs,FDI may be transferred across provinces or transfer polluting sectors across provinces,i.e.,the "pollution paradise hypothesis" is valid.The effect of infrastructure level on IGTFP is significantly positive,while the effect of fiscal decentralization on IGTFP is significantly negative.The effects of human capital stock and environmental regulation intensity are not significant.(2)In the heterogeneity analysis,this chapter finds that the impact of green credit on IGTFP is higher in the eastern regions than in the central and western regions,and the impact of green credit on IGTFP is greater in regions with higher levels of legal development and higher levels of financial development.(3)This chapter uses dynamic panel models and instrumental variable tests,as well as a DID model using a quasi-natural experiment in the Green Finance Reform and Innovation Pilot Zone(GFRIP)to conduct robustness tests,and finds that the findings from the benchmark regressions remain robust.(4)In the mechanism of the impact of green credit on IGTFP,this dissertation finds that the main impact of green credit on IGTC,i.e.,green credit raises IGTFP by improving green technology,while the impact on IGEC is not significant.In addition,the effect of economic development level on IGTC and IGEC shows a significant inverted U-shaped relationship;the "pollution paradise" hypothesis of foreign direct investment is mainly caused by reducing green technological progress;human capital stock significantly increases green technological progress;infrastructure level increases green efficiency;fiscal decentralization hinders As with IGTFP,the effect of environmental regulation on IGTC and IGEC remains insignificant.Third,in terms of the impact of green credit on IGTFP,through the mediating effect test,this dissertation finds that the impact of green credit on IGTFP is caused by the paths of industrial structure,energy consumption structure and green technological innovation.Among them,green technology innovation plays the largest role,accounting for about 32%,followed by energy consumption structure,rationalization of industrial structure and advanced industrial structure.In the robustness test,the results of the causal mediation test based on instrumental variables show that the total effect of green credit on IGTFP is 0.0139,which is significant at the 5% level.Industrial structure rationalization,industrial structure optimization,energy consumption structure and green technology innovation can explain 13.67%,16.55%,25.15 and44.60% of the increase in IGTFP,respectively,which again verifies the results of research hypothesis 2 that green credit enhances IGTFP by stimulating green technology innovation.moreover,among all the paths,green technology innovation explains the largest.Fourth,on the micro mechanism of the impact of green credit on corporate green technology innovation,this dissertation uses the panel data of listed companies from2007 to 2020 to verify the impact of green credit on corporate green technology innovation through compliance costs and financing constraints and its moderating role of government subsidies in the process.This dissertation finds that(1)Research hypothesis 3,that green credit reduces green technology innovation of firms in heavy polluting industries,is confirmed.This chapter finds that green credit policies have a negative impact on substantive green technology innovation of high polluting firms in China.(2)Using the DDD approach,this dissertation proves research hypothesis 4 that government innovation subsidies moderate the negative relationship between green credit and green technology innovation of firms in heavy polluting industries.In addition,this chapter finds that the larger,younger,more profitable,and more capitalintensive the firm is,the more substantial green technology innovation the firm has.(3)In the heterogeneity analysis,this chapter finds that green credit has a negative effect on the green technological innovation of state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises,large and small enterprises,and enterprises in eastern and mid-western regions in the heavy pollution industry,but the positive moderating effect of government subsidies on state-owned enterprises,large enterprises and mid-western enterprises is more significant,while the moderating effect on non-state-owned enterprises,small enterprises and eastern enterprises is not significant.(4)In the mechanism analysis,this dissertation proves research hypothesis 3A that green credit reduces green technology innovation among firms in heavy polluting industries by increasing compliance costs,but research hypothesis 4A is not proven,i.e.,there is no evidence that government subsidies help mitigate the crowding-out effect of compliance costs.This may be due to the fact that government subsidies tend to occur after R&D activities and thus have insignificant effects on compliance costs.Also,this dissertation proves research hypothesis 3B that green credit reduces green technology innovation among firms in heavy polluting industries by reducing bank lending and thus.Research hypothesis 4B is also verified that government subsidies mitigate the negative impact of green credit on green technology innovation by alleviating credit constraints.Green credit is less efficient in long-term bank credit allocation,and firms with green technology innovation levels may lack long-term bank support for their innovation activities.However,government subsidies can serve as certification for firms with high levels of green technology innovation and help mitigate this credit allocation inefficiency.(5)The following conclusions remain unchanged after robustness tests such as parallel trend analysis,placebo test,PSM-DID,excluding environmental policy interference,excluding industrial policy interference,changing treatment groups,changing dependent variables,changing fixed effects and changing clusters.Closely combining the findings of the article,this dissertation puts forward the following targeted policy recommendations.First,green credit has improved the green total factor productivity of Chinese industry,so China,as the first in green credit stock,should continue to promote and improve green credit policies and practices,and give full play to the driving role of green credit policies.(1)Continue to increase the proportion of green credit to total loans based on the "Equator Principles".(2)Incorporate the green credit policy effect evaluation system into the green credit policy design and actual implementation process,and provide the world with a Chinese model of green development through open economic cooperation.(3)Appropriate guidance for foreign direct investment(FDI)in order to improve the impact of FDI on green total factor productivity in Chinese industry.(4)Human capital accumulation directly affects a country or region’s ability to innovate and absorb advanced technology.The government should increase investment in regional education and further promote regional human capital accumulation by improving educational infrastructure,increasing teacher training and opportunities for young people to receive education,and providing more talent support for green industrial development.(5)Strengthen the complementary and alternative roles of green credit policies and environmental regulations,enhance the role of environmental regulations in green credit’s impact on green total factor productivity in Chinese industry,and gradually improve emission governance and its regulatory policies by first piloting governance for key enterprises in key polluting industries,and then gradually extending it to the whole industry from point to point.Second,in order to maximize the role of green credit in promoting green total factor productivity in industry,different green credit policies can be adopted in different regions.For the eastern regions,regions with higher legal level and higher financial development,green credit is crucial to promote the development of IGTFP.Therefore,green credit policies in the eastern regions need to be appropriately strengthened.On the contrary,for the central and western regions,regions with lower legal level and lower financial development level,traditional green credit has limited effect on promoting IGTFP,and green credit support should be increased to stimulate the green credit policy to promote the green transformation of industry.In addition,all green financial entities should cooperate and explore new green credit pilot projects.In addition,governments and financial institutions in central and western regions should cooperate to build a diversified green financial product system.In addition to innovative green credit products,financial institutions can also accelerate the innovation of green bonds,green insurance,green funds and other instruments to improve service efficiency and achieve coordinated development of the breadth and depth of the green financial system to better serve green economic growth through diversified development.Third,in the mechanism of green credit’s influence on IGTFP,it is necessary to continue to strengthen not only the role of green credit in enhancing green technological progress,but also the role of green credit in changing green efficiency,changing the status quo of low green efficiency for a long time and providing a basis for the government to further import a reasonable and effective credit regulation policy.The government should give full play to the function of coordination and guidance,formulate supporting green credit-related policies,and ensure that banks have adequate compensation mechanisms to deal with market risks,and guide banks to fully implement green credit policies autonomously.Fourth,green credit reduces the level of green technological innovation of enterprises in heavy polluting industrial industries through compliance costs and financing constraints,so it is recommended that:(1)the green innovation incentive effect of green credit policy be fully utilized to encourage financial institutions to enhance banks’ willingness to support green technological innovation and credit preferences,and stimulate industrial enterprises to strengthen green technology innovation,adopt clean production technology and use green credit resources to update production equipment,improve production processes and procedures,and promote emission reduction and energy conservation.(2)Banks should not apply a "one-size-fits-all" approach to enterprises in heavy pollution industries,but should develop incentive mechanisms for technological innovation for enterprises with technological innovation needs and provide specialized green credit services,taking into account the characteristics of specific industries and related enterprises.(3)In response to the current domestic commercial banks’ green credit products,which are single in variety and(3)In response to the current situation that domestic commercial banks have a single variety of green credit products with high homogeneity and lack of credit products that can adapt to the development of enterprises,banks should strengthen the innovation of diversification and characteristics of green credit products,use enterprises’ carbon emissions or pollution licenses as credit collateral,pilot them first and then promote them,and provide support for technological innovation of enterprises in heavy pollution industries through multiple channels.(4)The synergy of other green financial products such as green investment and green bonds should be maximized.Introduce more policy tools,such as green technology innovation certification and green bonds,and let these policy tools interact with other policies to stimulate enterprises to make substantial green technology innovation.(5)The government should provide guidance and incentive mechanisms such as incubation,guarantees and interest subsidies to reduce the financing costs and risk premiums of green enterprises,open up access to green finance and reduce the financing costs of green technology innovation.(6)The government should establish evaluation standards and information disclosure standards suitable for green technology projects,reduce the evaluation costs of financial institutions for such projects,and encourage financial institutions to provide lower-cost financial support for green technology innovation.