Study On The Economic Effects Of The Development Of China’s Aging Industry

China is a country with a large population,and population aging has become the basic feature and normal phenomenon of China’s economic and social development.Population aging has caused the change of labor force structure and consumption structure,which has a huge impact on economic development.After a stage of rapid population growth,the growth curve of China’s elderly population will become flat during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period,and at the same time,China’s economy has entered a stage of high-quality development.Therefore,the “14th Five-year Plan” period will be a valuable window period for the comprehensive development of the aging industry and actively respond to the aging population.How to give full play to the economic effects of the aging industry and promote the coordinated development of the aging industry and regional economy is not only a key work promoted by governments at all levels,but also an important field of concern for scholars.In the existing literature,it is rare to systematically and quantitatively analyze the economic effects of the development of the aging industry.In view of this,this study takes the economic effects of the development of the aging industry as the research theme,conducts theoretical analysis and empirical research on the formation and evolution of the aging industry and its industrial chain,the economic efficiency measurement of the aging industry,the correlation effect measurement,coupling effect measurement and spatial effect measurement of the development of the aging industry etc.The main contents are as follows:(1)In terms of theoretical analysisAccording to the theme of this paper,on the basis of systematically sorting out and comprehensively commenting on the research of the aging industry at home and abroad,the basic theories of the economic effects of the development of the aging industry is constructed.The connotation of the aging industry and its industrial chain is defined,and the structure of the aging industry in China is classified into three levels: basic industry,core industry and expansion industry,and the economic effects of the aging industry are discussed in detail.Logistic curve is introduced to establish the general model of the evolution analysis of the aging industry,and the different development stages of the aging industry are described respectively.The structure model of the aging industry chain under the influence of "demand-divisiontransaction" is proposed,and the basic path of the evolution of the aging industry chain is summarized.(2)In terms of empirical researchFirstly,the economic efficiency of the aging industry is studied.By selecting the data of the aging industry from 2010 to 2020 and using the three-stage DEA(BCC)model,the comprehensive technical efficiency,pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of the aging industry are measured.Malmquist index model is used to investigate the evolution of total factor productivity and decomposition index of the aging industry in different periods.The influencing factors of economic efficiency of aging industry in China are discussed by Tobit regression model.Secondly,the correlation effects of the development of China’s aging industry are analyzed.On the basis of the construction of the input-output table of the aging industry,the attribution matrix analysis model is applied to study the influence of the aging industry on the development of the national industry structure.When studying the correlation effects between the aging industry and various sectors of the national economy,not only the forward and backward correlation effects,ripple effect and induced effect are discussed,but also the internal multiplier effect,feedback effect and spillover effect are analyzed through structural decomposition.The added value of the aging industry is calculated with the help of the input-output table,and the VAR model is introduced to study the correlation effects between the aging industry and economic growth.Finally,the coupling effect and spatial effect of the development of China’s aging industry are analyzed.Based on the coupling coordination degree model,the spatial and temporal distribution,spatial agglomeration characteristics and evolution of the coupling coordination degree between the aging industry and regional economic development in China during 2010-2020 are analyzed.From the perspective of spatial heterogeneity,a spatial econometric model of the coupling coordination degree between the aging industry and regional economy is constructed,and the spatial effect of the coupling coordination degree between the two is studied,and the influence magnitude and mechanism of related factors are revealed.Through the above research work,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)From the perspective of connotation and evolution of the aging industry and its industrial chain,China’s aging industry can be divided into three categories: basic industry,core industry and expansion industry.The aging industry chain is a collection of cooperative enterprises,various resources and activities formed to meet the needs of the elderly population and provide pension products and services as the core.China’s aging industry focuses on the needs of the elderly,forming an industrial development model with the aging consumer market as the core,the aging product-related manufacturing industry to follow up,and other industries such as finance and technology as supplements.China’s aging industry chain is the industrial chain of the complex development of aging product manufacturing and elderly care service,and its evolution includes three basic paths: longitudinal evolution,lateral evolution and compound evolution.(2)The economic efficiency measurement and evolution analysis of the aging industry shows that the comprehensive technical efficiency of China’s aging industry is gradually improving,and its development is greatly affected by external environmental factors.Scale efficiency is the main factor affecting the comprehensive technical efficiency of the aging industry.The aging industry in most parts of China does not achieve the optimal industrial scale.The technological progress index is the main reason affecting the total factor productivity of the aging industry.The total factor productivity of the aging industry in China is different among provinces,and the growth rate is faster in backward regions.Among the main factors affecting the economic efficiency of the aging industry in China,the increase of the proportion of the elderly population,the elderly welfare and the elderly service expenditure have a significant positive impact on the comprehensive technical efficiency of the aging industry.The per capita GDP and the added value of the tertiary industry are negatively correlated with the comprehensive technical efficiency of the aging industry.(3)By constructing the input-output table including the aging industry,the correlation effect analysis of China’s aging industry shows that the evolution and development of China’s industrial structure gradually tends to be balanced,and the economic growths of industry sectors also tend to be coordinated,the aging industry is evolving towards endogenous,and the final demand of the aging industry has gradually enhanced its role in promoting the aging industry.The impact of the aging industry on other sectors is much greater than that of other sectors,especially on the construction industry,chemical products and information technology.Consumption is the most important factor leading to the production induced effect of the aging industry,but the consumption of rural residents is obviously insufficient.The basic industry of aging industry mainly relies on government investment,which has a very obvious nature of final products.The core industry of aging industry has a strong driving effect on the whole national economy.The expansion industry of aging industry has gradually moved towards market-oriented development.There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the development of the aging industry and economic growth.Economic growth has an obvious promoting effect on the development of the aging industry,while the aging industry has a certain promoting effect on economic growth,but the effect is not obvious.(4)The analysis of the coupling coordination degree evaluation model and spatial econometric model shows that the coupling coordination degree between the aging industry and regional economic development in China is stable,and the coordinated development status of the eastern and central provinces are good,while the coordinated development status of the economically underdeveloped western and northeast regions are relatively poor.In terms of spatial evolution,the coupling coordination degree of the aging industry and regional economy presents the characteristics of high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration.The regions with low coupling coordination degree are concentrated in the western and northeast regions of China.The spatial effect analysis shows that the coupling coordination degree of the aging industry and regional economy in China presents positive spatial auto-correlation characteristics with spatial spillover effects.Analysis of the impact parameters shows that fixed asset investment,per capita GDP,number of nursing institutions,number of nursing beds and professional nursing service personnel have a direct positive impact on the coupling coordination degree of local aging industry and regional economy,and the spatial spillover effect is not obvious.Local fiscal revenue has a significant promoting effect on the coupling and coordinated development degree of local aging industry and regional economy and has a significant negative spillover effect on surrounding areas.The ratio of old and young has a significant negative effect on the coordination degree between the aging industry and the regional economy both in the region and neighboring areas.The number of participants in basic pension insurance has no direct impact on the coordinated development of local aging industry and regional economy but has negative spillover effect on surrounding areas.Based on theoretical analysis and empirical results,this study puts forward the following policy suggestions: Scientifically formulate industrial development policies according to the structural characteristics of the aging industry;Strengthen the construction of the aging industry,actively promote the coordinated development between industries;Narrow the regional differences in the development of the aging industry,and improve the coordinated development level of the aging industry and the regional economy.