Research On The Impact Of Import Structure On The High-Quality Development Of China’s Economy

The 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China first proposed that“China’s economy has shifted from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of High-quality development.” This new concept of high-quality development has distinct Chinese characteristics.Subsequently,High-quality development has become one of the hot topics of government decision-making and scholars’ research.At the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,it was proposed that “High-quality development is the primary task of comprehensively building a modern socialist country” and “accelerating the construction of a strong trading country”,which put forward clearer requirements for High-quality development of trade and economy.In 2019,the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council proposed: “By 2022,the trade structure will be more optimized,trade efficiency will be significantly improved,trade strength will be further strengthened,and a system of indicators,policies,statistics,and performance evaluation for High-quality development of trade will be established.” Therefore,optimizing China’s trade structure,further promoting High-quality development of trade,and cultivating new competitive advantages in trade will become the goal and inevitable requirements of implementing new development concepts and constructing new development patterns in the new development stage and achieving high-quality economic development in China.In this context,adopting scientific methods to measure the structure of China’s commodity and service imports,objectively evaluate the impact of import structure on the high-quality development of China’s economy,and deeply study its internal mechanism and transmission path,and then adjusting and optimizing the import structure has important practical significance for the high-quality development of China’s economy.This dissertation adopts theoretical and empirical analysis methods to study the impact of import structure on the high-quality development of China’s economy,focusing on the following three questions:(1)What are the advantages and disadvantages of China’s commodity import structure and service import structure?(2)What is the level of high-quality economic development in our country?(3)How much influence does the import structure of goods and services have on the high-quality development of China’s economy? What are the internal mechanisms and transmission pathways of its action?Based on the above issues,this dissertation has certain innovation in research content and methods,and possible marginal contributions include:(1)In terms of theory,this dissertation has sorted out the ideas about the quality of economic development in Marx’s economic development theory,especially summarizing the theoretical parts related to high-quality economic development,enriching the theoretical origins of high-quality economic development.And systematically explored the mechanism by which import structure affects high-quality economic development.(2)In the construction of an indicator system to comprehensively evaluate the import structure and high-quality development of China’s and provincial economies,useful explorations have been made,using three basic indicators that are rarely used in existing literature,which are contribution rate of scientific and technological progress,the driving force of net exports of goods and services on GDP growth,and China’s unique economic concepts and statistical indicators with Chinese characteristics of socialist market economy---social financing scale stock.This dissertation constructs a relatively complete evaluation index system for high-quality economic development based on the new development concept,consisting of 24 indicators.The indicators are calculated using the entropy method to obtain the comprehensive index for high-quality economic development in China.At the same time,according to the spirit of the Guiding Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High Quality Development of Trade,an indicator system is constructed from the dimension of trade structure.Using the method of Pei Changhong(2013),three indices of China’s commodity import structure and three indices of service import structure are calculated.Compared with the previous use of single indicators such as total factor productivity,per capita GDP growth rate,and import technology complexity,this dissertation’s comprehensive index measures the quality of economic development and import structure more comprehensively.(3)Beneficial explorations have been made in research methods.This dissertation comprehensively applies five different empirical analysis methods,including entropy method,time series analysis,stochastic frontier gravity model and panel data model,and partial least squares structural equation model,to study the long-term impact and impact path of import structure on high-quality economic development in China,using panel data models to study the impact of import structure on the high-quality development of provincial economy.Among them,existing research using stochastic frontier gravity models mainly aims to measure trade efficiency and trade potential as the ultimate goal.This dissertation further expands on this basis.Firstly,the import structure variable is introduced into the stochastic frontier gravity model to calculate the efficiency of goods and services import between China and its 30 largest trading partners.Then,an empirical analysis is conducted on the impact of the import structure induced efficiency of goods and services import on the high-quality development of China’s economy,import structure of goods and services promoting high-quality economic development in China through improving trade efficiency may be an inherent mechanism or transmission path newly discovered in this dissertation.This dissertation also uses the partial least squares method structural equation model,which is currently less widely used in the field of economics,to analyze the impact mechanism of China’s commodity import structure and service import structure on high-quality economic development,expanding the application field of this effective analysis tool and making beneficial explorations in research methods.The research content of this dissertation is mainly divided into 9 chapters,and the main content of each chapter is as follows: Chapter 1 is the introduction.This chapter first elaborates on the research background and significance,then introduces the research content,framework,and methods of the dissertation,and finally points out possible innovations.Chapter 2 is a review of relevant theoretical foundations and literature.Chapter 3 presents the characteristics and facts of import structure and high-quality economic development in China.This chapter first analyzes the characteristic facts of changes in China’s import structure of goods and services,then analyzes the characteristic facts of high-quality development of China’s economy,and finally analyzes the evolution trend of China’s import structure and high-quality development of the economy.Chapter 4 constructs an evaluation system consisting of 24 basic indicators based on the new development concept.The entropy method,an objective weighting method,is used to calculate the high-quality development index of China’s economy.Drawing on the method of Pei Changhong(2013),three indices of commodity import structure and three indices of service import structure are calculated.On the basis of calculation results in the previous chapter,Chapter 5 uses time series analysis methods to empirically analyze the long-term impact of China’s three indices of commodity import structure and service import structure on the high-quality economic development index.At the same time,it analyzes the long-term linkage relationship between the commodity import structure index and the service import structure index.Chapter 6 first uses the stochastic frontier gravity model to analyze the impact of import structure on the efficiency of China’s commodity import and service import,and calculates the efficiency of China’s commodity import and service import.Then,a panel data model is used to analyze the impact of commodity import trade efficiency and service import trade efficiency on the high-quality development of China’s economy.Chapter 7,based on the previous indicator system,adopts the partial least squares structural equation model to analyze the impact path of China’s commodity import structure and service import structure on high-quality economic development.Chapter 8 selects 21 basic indicators from five aspects of the new development concept,and uses the entropy method to calculate the high-quality economic development index of 31 Provinces,autonomous regions,and municipalities directly under the Central Government in China’s mainland from 2016 to 2021;at the same time,the method of Pei Changhong(2013)was used to calculate the change index of commodity import structure in these Provinces,autonomous regions,and municipalities directly under the Central Government from 2016 to 2021.Furthermore,a panel data model was used to analyze the impact of commodity import structure on the high-quality development of provincial economy.Chapter 9 presents the main conclusions,policy recommendations,and shortcomings and prospects of the research.The main research conclusions of this dissertation are:(1)China’s commodity import structure index and service import structure index have a long-term impact on the index of high-quality economic development,and there is also a long-term linkage relationship between the commodity import structure index and the service import structure index.(2)The optimization of commodity import structure has a strong promoting effect on high-quality economic development in both the short and long term.High quality economic development in China can drive the optimization of commodity import structure in the long term.The import of SITC3(mineral fuels,lubricants,and related raw materials)has a strong promoting effect on the high-quality development of China’s economy in the short term,but has a weak negative impact in the long term;import of SITC7(machinery and transportation equipment)has the opposite effect with SITC3 on high-quality economic development;this is determined by the different uses of intermediate goods and capital goods.The overall changes in the structure of service imports have a weak negative effect on the high-quality development of the Chinese economy in the long run,and high-quality development of the Chinese economy can drive the optimization of the service import structure in the long run.(3)The improvement of efficiency in commodity import and service import which are induced by import structure change of commodity and service both have significant promoting effects on the high-quality development of China’s economy.The impact of the efficiency of commodity and service import between China and developing economies on the high-quality development of China’s economy is much greater than that of the efficiency of commodity and service import between China and developed economies on the high-quality development of China’s economy.The import of digital services has a significant promoting effect on the efficiency of China’s commodity import.The import of SITC7(machinery and transportation equipment)has a significant negative impact on the efficiency of China’s commodity import,which highlights the importance of independent innovation and import substitution in key core technologies such as high-end equipment.(4)The optimization of the import structure of goods can significantly promote high-quality economic development in China,but the degree of influence on the five dimensions that constitute high-quality economic development varies.From high to low,they are ranked as green development,innovative development,open development,shared development,and coordinated development.The changes in the structure of service imports have no significant impact on the five dimensions of high-quality economic development in China.(5)The index of changes in commodity import structure has a weak positive impact on the index of high-quality development of provincial economy,but it’s not significant.The proportion of import by foreign-invested enterprises to the total import volume of commodity in the province has a significant negative impact on the high-quality development index of the provincial economy,with a minimal coefficient value of-0.009,this proves that China should improve the quality of foreign-invested enterprises and focus on attracting investment from high-tech foreign enterprises.