Research On The Trend Of Provincial Urbanization In China Based On Structural Equation Model

The 17th national party congress reports pointed out that "According to urban and rural planning, rational layout, saving land, perfect function, small to big band principle, promote the coordinated development of large and medium-sized city and small town. "The 18th national party congress further clarify the definition of new urbanization, accelerating the urbanization construction. Urbanization is an important way to solve the problem of agriculture, countryside and peasant, a powerful support for promoting coordinated regional development, an important way to expanding domestic demand and promote industrial upgrading, and of great practical significance and far-reaching historical significance.At present, there are various definitions of urbanization.From the perspective of demography, urbanization is the process of population aggregation.From the perspective of geography, urbanization is the process of residents gather to position and land concentration.From the angle of sociology, urbanization is the way of life of the residents has from rural to city transformation.From the angle of ecology, urbanization is the process of human constantly seeking the most suitable for life and. production activities on the ecological system.From the angle of economics, urbanization is the transfer of all kinds of factors in the industry.In addition, The 18th national party congress report of the new urbanization is industry support, living environment, social security, life style by "rural" to "urban" transformation.The definition covers four aspects of the population, social, economic and ecological environment from which this paper will measures the level of urbanization.In order to carry on overall urbanization level and to analysis the overall level of provincial urbanization in-depth.we select comprehensive index system to measure the provincial urbanization level.In this paper, provincial urbanization level is evaluated by population urbanization level, economic urbanization level, social urbanization level and ecological environmental urbanization level.Based on the 2008 and 2010 year’s 31 provinces’data, structural equation model to evaluate provincial urbanization level is estimated, by using partial least square method. Simulation of adding stochastic disturbance into the observation data shows partial least square estimators have good stability.The model of 2008 shows economic urbanization and ecological environmental urbanization are dominant factors in our province area city development, the economic urbanization factors play a greater role.The model of 2010 shows the ecological environmental factors play a greater role.The change from 2008 to 2010 shows that the ecological environmental factors gradually become China’s urbanization development new point of growth.In the end,the obtained structural equation model based on 2010 is used to evaluate the big difference between different provinces.The effect of ecological environmental urbanization level, economic urbanization level,social urbanization level and population urbanization level weakened. The provinces must correspondingly increase the region’s economic development level based on maintaining the ecological index of competitive advantage.