| Currently,the domestic and international conditions facing China are undergoing great changes.On the one hand,international emergencies such as the Sino-US trade war and Covid-19 are occurring one after another.On the other hand,China has developed a huge domestic market,the domestic digital economy is leading a new round of technological progress,and the comparative competitive advantages of domestic factors have changed significantly.In response to these complex changes,the Chinese government has put forward a strategy to “foster a new development pattern where domestic and foreign markets can boost each other,with the domestic market as the mainstay”.An accurate understanding of the theoretical connotation of the “dual circulation” development pattern and a scientific and quantitative study of it will provide useful references for policy formulation in building the new development pattern.However,the current quantitative research on “dual circulation” is still in development,and there are still many deficiencies in the existing literature,such as rarely considering the boundary of value circulation comprehensively and rarely discussing the drivers of “dual circulation” deeply.In view of this,this thesis attempts to make a tentative supplement to previous research.This thesis understands “dual circulation” from the perspective of value circulation and then constructs a systematic theoretical analytical framework for the quantitative analysis of the “dual circulation” pattern and its driving factors by combining the Input-Output framework.In this theoretical framework,the new measurement method overcomes the defect that the value calculated in the existing literature exceeds the corresponding cycle boundary;the new analysis framework is carried out from the two dimensions of “dependence degree” and “economic scale”,which overcomes the deficiency that it is difficult to form a comprehensive understanding of the “dual circulation” pattern only from a single dimension.Using the driving factors analysis framework constructed with the HSDA,the driving effects of heterogeneous technology and heterogeneous demand on the growth of the domestic and international circular economies can be further analyzed.Based on the above theoretical framework,using a total of 57 years of world input-output tables from 1965 to 2021,a systematic study of the evolution history,current characteristics,and drivers of the dual circulation pattern in China is conducted.Firstly,in order to understand the logic of the evolution of China’s dual circulation pattern and to explore the general trends and differences in the evolution of the dual circulation pattern between China and other countries,this thesis conducts a multi-level systematic analysis and cross-country comparison based on dual circulation dependence.We find that China’s dual circulation pattern has undergone several shifts and adjustments over the longer observation period from 1965 to 2021 and that each shift and adjustment was due to significant changes in the country’ s security situation and comparative advantage,which necessitated the adjustment of the dual circulation pattern to adapt to the new situation in order to maintain healthy and stable economic growth.Cross-country analysis reveals that the general trend of deeper integration of countries into economic globalization still exists in the long term.After the 2008 economic crisis,China has shown a shift towards a more“domestic market as the mainstay” pattern,both in terms of numerical dependence and in international comparisons.However,under this common trend,there are still significant differences in the level of dependence on the international cycle between industries based on their industrial characteristics.Therefore,in implementing the new development pattern strategy,China should not only take into account the security situation and changes in comparative advantage resulting from the changes in domestic and international conditions but also consider the development characteristics of heterogeneous industries and take a long-term perspective to consider the new wave of economic globalization in the future.Secondly,in order to survey the economic scale and economic resilience of China’s dual circulation and to identify the international comparative advantages and relative shortcomings of them,this thesis conducts a multi-level systematic analysis and cross-country comparison based on the economic scale of the dual circulation.We find that during the period from 2008 to 2021,the scale of growth of the domestic cycle is the main driving force and a solid guarantee for the sustained growth of China’s GDP.And the greater resilience of the “consumption-led” is the main reason for China’s greater economic resilience in the domestic cycle.In cross-country comparisons,the scale of the “consumption-led” in China’s service sector is much smaller than that of the US,which is the main shortcoming that has led to the total scale of China’s economy and the scale of the domestic circulation being significantly smaller than that of the US.After digging deeper into this situation,we found that the“low rate of industrial value added” and the “inadequate scale of total consumption in the domestic cycle” are the main factors that inhibit the “consumption-led” scale of all industries in China,and the “small share of non-digital services in the structure of consumer demand” is a further factor that inhibits the “consumption-led” scale of non-digital services in China.In addition to the direct improvement of the structural factors mentioned above,the aim of increasing the scale of domestic circulation in China’s industries can be achieved by strengthening production linkages between industries.Finally,to systematically explore the drivers of China’s dual circular economic growth,this thesis employs chaining SDA and HSDA to analyze China’s dual circular economic growth over the period from 1995 to 2021 at multiple levels.The study finds that,in the medium-term period from 1995 to 2021,scale growth on the demand side has always been the main driver of China’s dual circular economic growth.In terms of the structure of technological inputs,the increasing degree of“service-oriented production” and “inputting digital devices” in all major categories of industries other than primary industries has strongly contributed to China’s growth in the dual circular,while the overall decline in comparative factor competitive advantage has dampened economic growth during this period.However,in the near-term period from 2018 to 2021,the structural factors of China’s dual circular changed significantly due to the Sino-US trade war and Covid-19.On the demand side,both consumption and investment in China’s domestic cycle have not grown as much as before,resulting in a weaker effect of changes on the domestic demand side.Moreover,changes in the structure of domestic demand,which is concentrated in capital formation,and in the structure of exports,which is concentrated in exporting final goods,have dampened the economic growth in China’s dual circular,respectively.In terms of the structure of technological inputs,the process of“inputting digital devices” in all major industries in China was hampered,and the supply of intermediate goods in “high-touch” non-digital services was severely affected.Although all the major industries have inputted more digital services to maintain the organization of their production networks and their resilience to risks,the effect of changes in the input structure of the other four major industries was negative,resulting in a dampening economic effect on China’s dual circular economy.In terms of comparative factor competitive advantage,the country and domestic industries achieved an increase in comparative factor competitive advantage during this period,and the value-added rate increased,thus contributing to the economic growth of China’s dual circular economy.This thesis,on the one hand,helps clarify the logic of the evolution of China’s dual circulation pattern,scientifically responds to whether China is shifting to the development pattern of “domestic market as the mainstay”,and identifies the general trend of the evolution of the dual circulation pattern in the world over a long period,which would provide useful reference for China to formulate specific policies for building the new development pattern based on the current situation and with a long-term perspective.On the other hand,identifying the growth resilience and relative weaknesses of the scale of China’s dual circulation has rich policy implications,which would help China formulate more accurate policies to balance security and development in the process of building the new development pattern.In addition,analyzing the driving factors of dual circulation economic growth and accurately identifying the changes in their effects during the recent Sino-US trade war and COVID-19 provides theoretical support and policy implications for China to focus on the key points of development,overcome difficulties,and unblock the blocking points in the process of building the new development pattern in the future. |
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