Establishing And Applying Of Environmental Air Quality Forecasting System

With the development of society and economy and the improvement of the public realization of environment protection, people have become not only thinking highly of themselves living quality, but also paying close attention to atmospheric pollution and air quality day by day. However, because of the increase of the total amount of environmental pollutant emission, the problem of atmospheric environment pollution exampling of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen-oxide is becoming more and more seriously. It is necessary for carrying out the air quality forecast to prevent air from pollution, furthermore preventing human health and environment from the air pollution and improving a city's images. The State Environment Protection Bureau is required to carrying out not only Air Quality Daily Report in 42 important cities on June 5th, 2000, but also Air Quality Forecasting for publics in 47 important cities on June 5th, 2001.There are two types of air pollution forecasting, weather forecasting of air pollution and air pollution density forecasting. The former is also defined as the potential air pollution forecasting; and the later is also called as air quality forecasting. There are also two kinds of forecasting methods: statistics forecasting and data forecasting. Moreover the methods of experience forecasting and summing results forecasting are also proposed because the mathematics calculation can not fully express the results of forecasting under the condition of the complication of air pollution, weather factors and the emission amount of pollutants. It is still very important to consider the forecasting experience of air pollution and weather. Consequently, the summing up meeting provided by forecaster must be considered during the forecasting.Because coal is main resource of fuel in Changchun, so the air environment of Changchun City appears the obvious smoking pollution feature. The characteristic of regular air pollution was obtained through taking the investigation and analysis for the air pollution of Changchun in 2002 in the paper. Meanwhile, the relationship between air pollutant density and weather factors connecting with the local conditions was also studied thoroughly. As result, the equation variation of the air environment quality model of Changchun can be set up more physical meaningful and the statistic model can also be established depending on the reliable physical theory.The forecasting model and software was set up undertaking the method of pluralistic regression and coefficient and relevant coefficient after considering the situation of studying on the air pollution forecasting domestic and aboard. According to the accurate judging standard of air pollutant forecasting value issued by the state environmental inspection station, a comparative analysis between forecasting value and actual inspection value in the year of 2003. The results show that the accurate balance value of PM10 is 77%, SO2 94% and NO2 95%, respectively, which are accorded with to the state technical requirement for statistics forecasting model. It can provide the reliable technological supporting for all citizens understanding the formations of air pollution timely, accurately, comprehensively, and for monitoring the serious pollution accident as well as the dynamic state of Changchun air environment pollution. To develop the relevant forecasting system software being of easily operating, high automation and good interface is of high value of promoting.The air quality forecasting model established in the paper is up to the state technical requirements for air quality forecasting depended on a concrete study for some key technical link during the establishment of the air quality forecasting and some efficient methods, this make the air quality forecasting model more scientific and operational. Some conclusions from the results above were obtained as follows:(i) In the relevant analyzing methods of forecasting, the original database established should be searched so as to get the best history data of the forecasting. D...