Identifying Regional Atmospheric Risks Of Industrial Park Planning: Methodology And Case Study

While an increasing number of industrial agglomerates have beendeveloped in the Chinese industrialization process, the regional accumulatedenvironmental risks, in a different form from the individual project-level risks,are significantly aggravated because multiple mega risk sources are built incertain limited areas, leading to a fierce spatial confliction between industrialdevelopment and urban expansion. Therefore, a systematic method, which canquantify regional environmental risks and identify high-risk factors, is ofgreat importance to risk reduction and prevention at the planning level.In this paper, a systematic method which combined planning riskidentification, characterization, simulation, assessment and management, wasdeveloped as a screening tool for regional atmospheric risks. In thismethodology, a characterization method of regional risks, in regard tomultiple risk sources and various hazardous substances, was proposed tomeasure the regional risk field. Then a spatial uncertainty analysis methodwas developed, which turned uncertain planning contents into computablediscrete spatial scenarios, to quantify the relation between the underlyingspatial uncertainty in planning and the regional risk levels. A risk simulationmethod was developed to simulate the dispersion of accidental releases withcomplex terrain and meteorological conditions, by combining the CALPUFFatmospheric dispersion model and a stochastic sampling technique. At last, aspatial identification method based on the HSY algorithm was developed toidentify the suitable layout ranges for different plants in plans.The method was applied to a typical developing petrochemical park innorthern China. Results show that the regional atmospheric risk level issignificantly increased, turning719.8km2into high-risk areas. Four plannedpopulated areas are under the threat of high risk levels. The COCl2of the MDIplant and the NH3of the ACR plant are identified as the most risky substances.Among all6major petrochemical plants in plan, the MDI plant, the ACR plant and the ABS plant are identified as high-risk plants. The spatial layout rangesfor high-risk plants are identified, then some specific regional risk preventionstrategies, which mainly focus on the industrial structure planning, the spatiallayout planning and the integrated risk management, are performed at last.