Submarine Pipeline Routing Risk Quantitative Assessment Based On Grey-mode Identification Theory

Routing design on submarine pipeline is one of the most important works in the exploitation of the ocean petroleum, which will directly affect and restrict the submarine pipeline's design, building and maintenance, and it will also affect the pipeline's normal operation and the safety of economic activities inside. Therefore carrying a risk analysis on the submarine pipeline's routing should have a very important meaning for the ocean petroleum exploitation's economy and safety.This paper synthetically thought over the latent risk factors which will have influence on the submarine pipeline's safety, and established the index evaluation system about the engineering geological condition,the oceanic hydrographic condition and the condition of oceanic establishment and economic activities . On the basis of a flood of data's collected and analyzed, the paper established the standard mode of the evaluation. At the same time, considering that the influencing factors have the fuzzy and indeterminate characteristics,a new model of grey-mode identification for submarine pipeline routing risk quantitative analysis was brought forward．This model is based on grey relational degree and combined with eigenvalue of grade variable, so it overcomes the shortcoming of homogenized tendency of the grey interrelation analysis method. Through this model, we can availably and quantificationally assess the risk degree of a certain routing line, then can ground the selection of the routing schemes, and support guidance for the submarine pipeline's designing, constructing and management.This paper still achieved in the software's exploitation on the procedure of evaluation by means of the C++ Builder 6.0 IDE and the SQL Server database software and took the BONAN oil-field's data as an example to take into the verification. Example makes it clear that this model can concisely and directly reflect the risk degree of the routing system．...