Research On Risk Analysis Of On-duty Long-distance Pipeline

The pipeline safety situation is increasingly outstanding with long-distance oil and gas pipelines development. It is pretty important to pipelines safety that carrying on the risk analysis and managementCarried on the Safety evaluation of reliability of on-duty pipeline in different operation period in according to "the bathtub curve". Introduced the basic principle definition of risk analysis, the classification of pipeline failure causes and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. Introduced the method of risk causes weights calculation of pipeline based on AHP. Introduced the sensitivity analysis method, studied a sensitivity fuzzy analysis approach of pipeline risk causes. Analyzed risk evaluation system and model revising method. Put forward the first step of marks adjusting based on risk causes weights aimed at the existing limitation of index method. Introduced the fuzzy analysis approach of pipeline risk causes and risk management. Put forward the outlook of pipeline risk evaluates and analysis technique in China.Firstly, Carried on the Safety evaluation of reliability of on-duty pipeline in different operation period in according to "the bathtub curve" in order to raise the analysis veracity and practicability.Secondly, aimed at different risk causes, it is necessity to look for advanced science methods to raise the rationality of risk causes weights. Introduced the method of risk causes weights calculation of pipeline applied AHP.In other respects, used for reference from the technique economics, introduced the fuzzy mathematics to study sensitivity fuzzy analysis approaches of pipeline risk causes.Moreover, the basic risk analysis model is in the person of an idea Aimed at the weakness of the index method, adjusted the mark scopes applied the results of AHP. Put forward the first step of marks adjusting based on risk causes weights aimed at the existing limitation of index methodFinally, introduced fuzzy analysis approach and fuzzy integrated judging process. Discussed risk management based on reliability and risk analysis. Aimed at the actual condition of the world petroleum and the natural gas industries. Put forward the outlook of pipeline risk evaluates and analysis technique in China.