Studies On The Effects Of South-to-North Water Diversion To The Water Environmental Carrying Capacities Of Representative Cities In Hebei Province

Water resources arc the supporting material bases for the sustainable development of human society. Water has carrying capacity for both population and economy. It also has capacity of self-purification and can endure the pollution of some extent. As a province in serious water shortage, Hebei province faces many problems such as deficiencies of water supply, water pollution and the descent of water table. All of these problems are mainly aroused by the excessive exploitation of existing water. These problems basically are the results of the human demand execssing the water carrying capacity of this region. The South-to-North Water Diversion Midline in construction will import water from Danjiangkou Reservoir into the North China Plain. This project will solve the severe water shortage of Beijing city, Tianjing city and Hebei Province. This thesis selected Shijiazhuang city and Handan city as the representative cities. Based on the water resources planning of The South-to-North Water Diversion Midlinc, systemic dynamics and multiple objective decision-making methods were employed to research the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) of the two cities. Different strategies were developed. Their effects to the water environmental carrying capacities of the two cities were analyzed. The optimum strategy was selected as the foundation of the economic growth, water environmental protection and water resources sustainable development of this region. The results can help to ensure the water to be used effectively. It can also help to solve the water-related problems of Hebei Province and facilitate the economic growth and social development.The main contents and conclusion are summed up as follows:(1) The WECC systemic dynamics model of Shijiazhuang city was established. After seven strategies were developed, Vcnsim PLE, AHP and vector module method were used to simulate these strategies. The results showed that the single strategies such as economy of water resources and pollution clearing had only limited contribution to the WECC of Shijiazhuang city. Synthetic strategy seven combined water resources from The South-to-North Water Diversion Midlinc, raise of water resources income, economy of water resources and pollution clearing. This strategy increased the water supply and improved the water quality. The WECC of Shijiazhuang city under this strategy rose much more than other strategies. So it is the best strategy to facilitate the soc-economy and water environment sustainable development of Shijiazhuang city.(2) Systemic dynamics and multiple objective decision-making methods were conducted separately to research the WECC of Handan city. Both the results indicated that carrying capacity indexes would be improved with the South-to-North water. This outcome revealed The South-to-North Water Diversion is the basic approach to solve the water resources and environmental problems of Handan city. At the same time assistant measures including industry structure adjustment, sewage utilizing and so on should be applied.(3) All cities in Hebei Province to receive water were selected. The factor analysis and cluster analysis were employed. The regional WECC indexes and their predicted values in the year of 2010 were studied. It was concluded that the WECC of Shijiazhuang city was currently the highest. The WECC of Cangzhou city was lowest among all the seven cities. In the year 2010 when the water resources were imported, the WECC of every city in the region were improved. The rising extent of Baoding city was greatest and the rising extent of Cangzhou city was minimum. In the end improved measures were put forward to help with the development of soc-cconomy and water resources sustainable policies of Hebei Province.