Study On The Regional Carrying Capacity Of Chang-Zhu-Tan Region On The Basis Of The Sustainable Development

When the people, Resource, Environment and Development become the most populate problems in the world, the human being has to make a decision between the economic development and the stagnation. It is well known to all, the research of the man-land relationship territorial system is one of the main researches of Geographical science. Within a confined temporospatial limits, and under the condition of ensuring rational exploitation of resources and without deteriorating the environment capacity could carry. Along with the human beings' attention on the ecological destroying, environmental degradation, resources lessening, population increasing, and economic development, the mostly aspect of the man-land relationship territorial system turns to judging the sustainability of the man-land relationship.Based on the research experiences and the theories such as system science theory, man-land system theory, sustainability theory, this paper regarded the research object on the man-land relationship territorial system as the research object, and constructed the evaluating ideal model of the regional carrying capacity by dint of the state space, and then introduced the vector notion to frame the evaluating mathematical model. The paper evaluated the regional carrying capacity (RCC) of Chang-Zhu-Tan region from 2000 to 2004. The results showed that the whole actual regional carrying capacity of Chang-Zhu-Tan region was all excess of the ideal condition during the time, but the trends has been down gradually. By the gray prediction model, the actual regional carrying capacity will have been declined from 2005 to 2010, and that of 2008 will be below the ideal regional carrying capacity in the span of 2000 to 2004. Which was the main factors influencing the regional carrying capacity? Thepaper analyzed the 26 indexes by the principle component analysis. It indicated that the main factors lied in the resource and environment, such as the infield area per man, the solid castoff deposition per lOOOOyuan, the water resource per man, the industry exhaust gas disposal rate, the industry solid castoff disposal rate and so on. Based on these, the paper built the indexes system to evaluate the 12 counties of the Chang-Zhu-Tan region in 2004, and then divided the 12 counties into 4 grades by the fuzzy cluster. They respectively belonged to huge, heavy, middle, light. In the final part of the paper, the author put forwards some suggestion to improve the regional carrying capacity from resource, environment, economic, technology and policy.