Xi'an LUCC Forecast And The Optimal Allocation And The Loss Of Ecosystem Service Value

In order to improve the level of Xi'an LUCC research, according to the LUCC research plan which is put forward by IGBP and IHDP, investigated and analyzed the data about Xi'an land use change last five years (2000-2004), on the basis of this, set up Grey Systemic Dynamic Model, forecasted Xi'an land use change from 2005 to 2010, tried to calculate the loss of Xi'an land ecosystem service value and use the coin to reflect this kind of loss.Through the analysis of LUCC forecast, the conclusion is obtained: the speed of the construction land increasing and the field land decreasing is more fast, every year the traffic land area is increasing as the speed of 8.3%, the residence and factory land is increasing as 2.48%, the field land is decreasing as 1.73%. This kind of land use change isn't fit for , it's necessary to research Xi'an land use optimal allocation.Through comparing LUCC forecast results with xi'an land use plan, get the conclusion is obtained: the ecosystem construction of the woodland and the wetland which is benefited for Xi'an environment haven't been recognized adequately, and the construction land area of plan exceed the forecast value calculated in term of traditional developed mode. So we should study the land use optimal allocation and the Xi'an land use plan should be modified.Selected 2000 as the base year, through the calculated the loss of land ecosystem service value, the conclusion is that in 2010 year the loss of land ecosystem service value will be 331.84×10~6 yuan, it means that according to traditional developed mode, unreasonable land use framework will bring more the loss of land ecosystem service value. In the land use plan, the loss of ecosystem service value is 315.48×10~6 yuan, and the discrepancy between forecasting and planning is not very wide. It means that the land use plan can't get to the aid of decreasing the loss of ecosystem service value,so it should be modified.Through analyzing of the loss of ecosystem service value between the plan and the forecast, considering the factor of economic development and ecosystem construction, we know that the emphases of adjusting should be the residence and factory land use, the field land area, the woodland and the wetland area, especially wetland. At the same time we can select the part of reasonable in land use plan as the restriction.Through the research of land use optimal allocation, we know that the loss of ecosystem service value will be 48.89x10 yuan, it reduces 266.59x106 yuan than the loss of plan ecosystem service value, and is less 282.94x106 yuan than forecasting. This means that after modifying the land use plan, Xi'an the loss of land ecosystem service value will decrease, and this will be benefit for improving Xi'an environment.