A Study On Forecast System Of Oil Spill In The Jiaozhou Bay And Its Adjacent Seas

With the rapid development of petroleum industry and ship transportation of petroleum, a series of oil spill accidents has occurred frequently, which lead to serious oil pollution. The ocean environment, marine ecology and local economy are destroyed accordingly. How to forecast correctly and quickly the behavior of spilled oil after oil spill accident in order to control and clear the oil spill timely is an issue that researchers are focusing on.Combining with the key project—Environmental Protection Program in the offshore area of Qingdao, the thesis studies the oil spill forecast system in the Jiaozhou Bay and its adjacent domain. A numerical current forecast model and an oil spill model are built up. A quick and correct forecast of tidal current when oil spill occurs is a key step in the forecast of oil spill. Based on the harmonic constant of tidal component of M2, S2, O1 and K1 in Lingshan Island, Laoshantou and Chaolian Island, and by using harmonic method, the thesis first conducts a current forecast in a single point, and then builds up a current field forecast in Jiaozhou Bay and its adjacent seas. The computed results match well with the actual situation. The method reduces greatly the time of real time current forecast by not using numerical stimulation, so it fit to the two requirements of quickness and correctness in oil spill forecast system. In order to forecast and simulate reasonably the behavior of oil spill, the thesis presents a progressive simulation method based on"oil particle"method, namely, dividing the oil spill behavior into self-expansion and turbulent current expansion, then using different numerical methods to simulate and forecast. The method takes the self-expansion process of oil into account, thus makes up the shortcoming of"oil particle"method in the initial step of oil spill. Base on these achievements, the Forecast System of Oil spill in the Jiaozhou Bay and its adjacent seas is built up. Then on the basis of current field forecasted at the time oil spill, the behavior of oil spill is stimulated and forecasted, and the functions of Forecast System are show.Theoretical analysis and simulation results indicate that the computed results of the model that the thesis builds is believable, which will benefit theoretically and practically to the development of oil spill forecast model and the making of oil spill emergency plan in Jiaozhou...