The Study On Land Use Change And Its Ecological Effects In Qiandao Lake Town, Hangzhou City

LUCC (Land Use and Land Cover Change) is the main reason and response of the globe climate change, and also has a close relation with the sustainable development. LUCC model is the important method to predict future land use change. Selecting typical region of small scale spatial range as a study object is an effective path to deeply recognize and analyze the spatial change and driving mechanism about land use. It can make the research about LUCC develop more deeply and widely in china. The synthesized-integrated dynamic model which built on the clear space orientation foundation is the essential means to understand and know the region land use/land cover change, and is the crucial tool to study and appraise the land use change's pattern and influence in the future. It shows that the CLUE-S Model is suitable which to research the land use change of small scale and spatial region contrast with the other models.Nowadays, the domestic researches on the region land use change always focus on the county scale, however the villages and towns scale are little involved. Employing the technology of GIS and the method of statistic analysis, the thesis studies the process and driving factors of land use change which utilizes statistic data from 1993 to 2004 of Qiandao Lake in Hangzhou city which lies in the center of the Yangtze River Delta. Based on CLUE-S model, the paper simulates and forecasts land use change in 2004 and in 2015 in the different conditions, and analyses the ecological effects during past 11 years by using the theory of landscape ecology. The study can provide effective support for land use plan and ecological environment construction in the village and town scale, therefore the paper has certain theoretical and realistic meaning.The main conclusions are the followings:(1) Over the past 11 years from 1993 to 2004, dramatic change has taken place on land use in Qiandao Lake town. In quantitative terms, the absolute change extent obeyed the following sequence: land for urban areas and mining(533.49ha)>forest land (-415.025ha) >idle land (-189.057ha) >garden land(137.941ha)>cultivated land (-131.545ha) > land for traffic (53.319)>other idle land(-39.741ha) >other agricultural land(28.33ha) > land for water facilities(20.912ha)>grassland(1.375ha); In land use synthetic index terms, the exploitation development degree in this region is also at a reasonable phase, but the development speed is quicker at an average rate of 4.533% each year; In land use change constitution index terms, grassland, land for urban areas and mining, and also land for traffic and other agriculture land are at a stably increasing condition, however, idle land, cultivated land and forest land are at the stably reducing condition.(2) Land use change in Qiandao Lake town not only has been influenced by the natural factor, but also influenced by the social economy and the policy factors. In the selected driving factors, the distance to the federal highway is the most important natural driving factor, and the population density is the most important social economy factor.(3) According the analysis of the logistic regress on driving factors, the more contributive driving factors to the analysis of land use change would be chosen into the simulation of the CLUE-S model and its result would be tested by land use map of 2004. The result indicates that CLUE-S model is capable of simulating correctly 84.71% and Kappa index 0.825 at the basic grid level (90m*90m). The land use temporal and spatial change simulation of the CLUE-S model in this region has achieved its goal. Based on that, the author designed two scenes to carry on the simulation to land use change of Year 2015. Comparing two status land use maps of Year 2015 and 2004, the obvious change is the expansion of land for urban areas and mining and the reduction of forest land, meanwhile, the expansion of land for urban areas and mining is usually based on the original land for urban areas and mining, which invaded around some land, such as forest land, cultivated land, idle land etc. Comparing with the two scenes, the transformation quantities of the cell unit of the first scene are more than that of the second, especially those cell units are forest land and cultivated land have been more transformed into land for urban areas and mining.(4) In the scale of class type, forest land was the most essential landscape type, the matrix in the region was forest land. This land use type occupied 78.31% in 1993 and 75.23% in 2004. The scale of land of traffic increased from 3.22% in 1993 to 7.4% in 2004. In the all, the number of patches about land of traffic and garden land increased and showed the trend of larger, while the number of patches about cultivated and idle land reduced; In the scale of landscape, each kind of landscape type distribution of Qiandao Lake town tends to gathering and forms the certain scale; The tendency of the single kind of landscape occupy leading is weakening, which will cause the stability of the ecosystem. Meanwhile, we should also watch that with the unceasing reduction of forest land and the enhancement of the cities level, the ecological environment will be subjected to the certain influence. It shows: the ecological environment drops in quality; the development of the landscape interior is well-distributed, which reduces the resist-disturbing ability of the landscape; the edge effect reduces; ecosystem component is simplifying.