Research On Coal And Gas Outburst Alarming Method Based On Multi-factor Probability Prediction

The safety of coal-mine is the most important thing in the present coal-mine production, while coal and gas outburst is one of the most serious natural disasters threatening the coal-mine production, and is a kind of complicated dynamic phenomenon. Because of the numerous factors, the disasters increasingly heavier and lack of absolutely studying of the occurrence mechanism, the paper studies deeply about the physical and dynamic properties of the coal and gas conservation, then discusses systemically the coal absorption of the gas, the rules of seam penetration and migration as well as the influencing factors of gas content from the theory of gas geology. And it analyzes systemically a variety of factors controlling and effecting coal and gas outburst along with the popular synthesizing theory, accordingly builds gas outburst assessment index system of the hazard grading, including coal and seam structure, gas parameters, geologic conformation and mining methods through analyzing the rules and condition of the coal and gas outburst. Meanwhile, the paper explains the calculation expressions on some unfamiliar indexes of the indexes system in detail. Lastly, based on the theory analysis and the internal relations between the outburst influencing factors and the probabilities of hazard occurrence about Pan Yi mine of Huai Nan mine, relying on the information and historical data about coal-gas and geological conformations, the thesis establishes the assessment system of seam 13-1, then applying the method of fuzzy synthesis assessment and using the Matlab Logic Tools to set up some subjection functions containing seam thickness, gas diffusing velocity, coal's consistence coefficient, and so on. Afterward, it offers some engineering validation of some working places in this seam. Consequently, it gives a certain reference for the prediction of coal and gas outburst. But the paper simply ensures the subjection degree for those indexes that cannot be quantified easily, and suggests taking the opinions of more geology disasters experts into consideration to make the result reliable and exact in practice.