| According to the real data of mine sites, in this thesis the change law of development index in blocks developed by polymer flooding and of injection rate, water contamination, oil production, polymer concentration, injection pressure, ultimate recovery at each development stage has been studied; the influence of development effects and index change of development block in different development model has been analyzed; dynamic indicator empirical relation engraving has been established, concerning different injection rate, different recovery percent of reserves before polymer injection, different elementary water contamination and different completeness extent of ore mass.Based on numerical simulation techniques, influence on development index change has been quantitative studied, which is imposed by injection rate, polymer injection amount, polymer molecular weight, injection density, inhomogeneity of oil layer, connection style and thickness ratio of channel sand, different texture ratio of ore mass, corresponding extent of injection well and production well, elementary water contamination before polymer injection, distance of injection well and production well. And quantitative relation table of polymer flooding effect and recovery has been established. Based on numerical modeling results of influencing factor, multifactor retrogressive method has been established, according to which a function related to water contamination and recovery extent at each stage of five characteristic points has been established. At the bases of such situation, a prediction method called material balance method has been improved, and simulation prediction of twelve I oil layer and II oil layer in typical block has been carried out. In this thesis, an aggregate analysis system has been established, which is able to forecast and appraise poly-drove index of macro control to recovery extent, material balance method, normalization evaluation mechanism, displacement characteristics curve and so on.
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