Study On Water Environmental Carrying Capacity Of Linyi Hi-tech Zone

With the prodigious development of our economy, many territorial construction programs emerge. Because Water Environmental Carrying Capacity(WECC), as an important part of sustainable development, is also the choke point that conditions economic development in an area, it is a pressing need to do some research on this problem. Linyi hi-tech development zone are one example. For years, the pollution is aggravating and water resource is gradually decreasing here. For the sake of solving this problem, this thesis need to analyze the relationship between WECC and the economic development here, and to make economic strategies in order to materialize our goal, i.e, developing the economy to the utmost on the basis of not destroying the ecological environment.The author of this thesis adopts the theories of system dynamics to analyze WECC in Linyi hi-tech zone, which provides important evidence for making the planning project in this area. The achievements of this thesis are as follows:(1) On the basis of the fundamental theories and methods of WECC, the author proposes the concept of territorial WECC, the connotation, the nature, the characteristics and calculating methods of WECC as well. After evaluating these methods, the author decides to do some research on WECC using System Dynamics and vector analysis method.(2) After analyzing the reality of hi-tech zone, the author calculates the water environmental capability of the pollutant-holding rivers (Nansuhe River 168.6t/a) and proposes the major problems of water resource development and water environment.(3) The author sifts WECC indicators and set up territorial WECC indicators system, which consists of 14 concrete indicators. After this, the author adopts layer analysis method to ascertain the weighing proportion of each indicator.(4) The author constructs WECC system dynamics model after analyzing the relationship of each element in a system and inter-systems. Through the efficient examination, it proves that the model runs well. All the indicators are simulated with the computer, and then the changing trend of WECC and its reasons in Linyi hi-tech zone are found out. On this thesis, the author proposes the concrete project to improve WECC. Calculate the indicator of each project; analyze the data of WECC of different projects. Finally, the author form a comprehensive project, which combines new water resource pioneering, water saving and pollutant treatment. This project provides evidence for the adjustment of development plan in hi-tech zone.(5) Through analyzing the balance between COD discharge and WECC as well as water supply and demand balance in each project, WECC in hi-tech zone will be enormously elevated, and the predicted carrying population will be 77,300, and GDP will be 14, 89 billion, 2.36, 4.37 times higher respectively than those now. On the basis of this prediction, the author proposes operable adjustment suggestions in Linyi hi-tech zone.