| With the global warming becoming hotter topic,carbon emission has become the core issue in global sustainable development and dealing with climate c hange.The carbon emission inventory makes it possible to clearly understand the regional emission source and structure,grasp the emission characteristics and trend as well as provide the basis for the formulation of reasonable emission reduction target a nd scientific and effective emission reduction program.Taking Nanning high tech Industrial Development Zone,a national low-carbon industrial park pilot,as the research object,this thesis adopts greenhouse gas accounting method recommended in IPCC Natio nal Greenhouse Gas Inventory Guide in 2006 and Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventory Guide.By analyzing acquired statistical data,the paper calculates the annual energy active carbon emission and annual carbon emission of other industries,together with the combustion of biomass fuels and greenhouse gas emissions of sewage and wastewater in Nanning High Tech Development Zone.It also estimates the forestry carbon absorption.Based on the list of carbon emissions,the paper calculated and analyzed the carbon emission index,including the per capita carbon emission,carbon intensity and energy intensity of the High-tech Zone.It also analyzed the influence factors of carbon emission in the study area according to the Kaya Identity and LMDI Factors Decomposition Method.It set the “reference scenario” and “low carbon scenario”,made tentative forecast of the carbon emissions in 2020 in the high-tech zones and gave some suggestions on the development of low carbon high tech Zone.The ending part of the article lists the basic conclusion of this article and the shortcomings of the present research.This paper draws the following conclusions:1)The total carbon emissions of high-tech zones from 2010 to 2015 in Nanning was 17,434,310.91 tons,including 3,109,102.32 tons in 2010,accounting for 17.83%;3,156,005.64 tons in 2011,accounting for 18.10%;2,688,381.21 tons in 2012,accounting for 15.42%;2,727,160.63 tons in 2013,accounting for 15.64%;200,8330.44 tons in 2014,accounting for 11.52% and 3,745,330.67 tons in 2015,accounting for 21.48%.In the past six years,carbon emissions reached its highest level in 2015 with the highest proportion;while 2014 witnessed the lowest emissions with the lowest proportion.During the 5 years from 2010 to 2014,in high-tech zones the overall carbon emissions had some fluctuations but showed a decline in the emissions and the proportion.However,it rebounded in 2015 with increased emissions and proportion.(2)In the past four years from 2012 to 2015,food and beverage processing manufacturing industry in Nanning high-tech Zone contributed the largest carbon emissions of 4,422,079 tons,accounting for 39.59%,followed by the chemical industry with the total carbon emissions of 2,025,900 tons,accounting for 18.14% and the pharmaceutical manufacturing ranks third,accounting for 5.06%.The above-mentioned three industries made up of 62.79% of the total carbon emissions.(3)From 2010 to 2013 in Nanning high-tech Zone,emissions of methane and Nitrous Oxide by the combustion of biomass fuel increased,but 2014 witnessed a decrease in both emissions and proportion.It rebounded in 2015.In the past 6 years,the total methane emissions accounted for 14,133 tons,the total emissions of methane and N itrous Oxide reached up to the peak of 259 tons in 2013,which were 3,187 tons and 58 tons respectively,accounting for 22.55%.(4)From 2010 to 2015,there was no significant fluctuation in the forest area of Nanning high tech Zone.And during this period,the average annual carbon absorption was estimated at 9,500 tons.(5)During the period of “12th Five-Year Plan”,the per capita carbon emissions of Nanning high tech Zone decreased from 40.9 tons per person in 2011 to about 18.42 tons in 2014.In the year of 2015,there was a rebound to a total of 30.83 tons per person.But there was a general decline in the carbon emission per capita.(6)During the “12th Five-Year Plan”,the overall intensity of carbon emissions in Nanning high tech Zone were 1.98 tons / million yuan,1.39 tons / million yuan,1.14 tons / million yuan,0.69 tons / million yuan,1.11 tons / million yuan,with the overall trend of decreasing,especially in 2014,the carbon emission intensity was less than 1 tons / million yuan for the first time,reaching 0.69 tons / million yuan.What's more,the other four-year carbon emission intensity ranged between 1 and 2 tons / million yuan,indicating that industrial production in the High-tech Zone technology is promoted,the economic growth mode is further adjusted and optimized.Fossil fuel consumption is further reduced in the overall energy consumption,which is in proportion to the energy activity structure,changes in carbon emissions and structure of the carbon emissions in the high tech Zone from 2010 to 2015.(7)During the “12th Five-Year Plan”,the overall energy intensity was declining from 0.64 tons of standard coal per million GDP in 2011 to 0.43 tons of standard coal per million GDP in 2015.In the past five years,the energy intensity reached the lowest level with 0.30 tons of standard coal per million GDP.From 2011 to 2014,energy intensity was declining but in 2015 it began to rise.(8)Population,GDP per capita and energy carbon emissions intensity in the high tech Zone played a promoting role in decreasing the carbon emission,among which the population contribution promoted the most,followed by GDP per capita.The two factors of population and GDP per capita played an increasingly important role in preventing carbon emissions from 2011 to 2014.But in 2015,the two promoting effects weakened.From 2011 to 2014,the promotion of energy carbon emissions intensity declined,but it strengthened in 2015.Generally speaking,from 2011 to 2015,energy intensity per GDP inhibited carbon emissions,and the inhibitory e ffect enhanced from 2010 to 2014 but weakened in 2015. |
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