| With the ecology-society contradiction becomes worsen and worsen,the issue of development of agricultural eco-economic system has been aroused great attention in the world. China's social and economic development is very uneven and regional differences are significant because of the vast territory and various natural conditions in different areas.Therefore the sustainable development of both ecological construction and economic construction are of the same importance to China.Wuqi County is located in the north-west area in Yah'an district.It's mountainous physiognomy and broken land that is caused by over-deforestation and over-grazing animals have enormously constrained the local development.Since 1998 Wuqi government has actively responded to the call of the central committee of CPC-Rebuild a new and graceful North-west area and returned land for farming and forestry first and was honored "Model County for Conservation of Water and Soil and eco-environmental Construction" by Ministry of Water Resources.However,in recent years the massive oil production has brought not only some business benefit but serious pollution problems.Based on a research in Wuqi County the author adopts the ecological footprint model,emergy analysis and the model of ecological footprint calculation based on the theory of emergy analysis to discuss the possibility of its sustainable eco-economic development since 1995 till now.Following are the conclusions:(1)The result from the ecological footprint model shows that since 1995 the average ecological footprint in Wuqi County has increased a lot:1995-2006 the increase is 2.9744hm~2 and the annual increase is 0.2540hm~2;while the average ecological capacity increases comparatively slow:1995～2006 the increase is 0.8716hm~2 and the annual increase is 0.0792hm~2.During the 12 years the average ecological footprint is higher than the average ecological capacity and the ecological deficit keeps increasing from 0.0181 hm~2 in 1995 to 1.7747 hm~2 in 2006 and the annual increase is 0.1597hm~2.Since 1995 the local oil production has led the massive use of power and a increase of average emergy consumption and the average ecological footprint is in an up-tendency.The average ecological deficit changes with the average ecological footprint for the stability of average ecological capacity.Its development relies on the natural resources consumption esp.the electronic power which is the key reason to the ecological deficit.It can be drawn that its eco-economic system is not in the sustainable development. (2)The result from emergy analysis shows that since 1995 EYR of Wuqi County is more than 1, that is to say,EYR of producing is more than that of invest.EYR is between 1.5-2.5 and the high EYR is contributed to the low purchase emergy value(unrenewable industrial emergy and renewable organic emergy) and high environmental emergy value that is used without compensation.The environmental ELR is about 3.00 which show that its environmental pressure is not big and the government has paid attention to the environmental protection when enhancing the economic benefit. The sustainable development indexes are less than 1 and the general sustainable development index shows the non-constant velocity decline tendency;under the influence of EYR and ELR eco-system index of the sustainable development is less than 1 and the general sustainable developmental index shows non-velocity decline tendency.These show that the local development is based on the resources consumption and it cannot be called high-producing in a real sense.(3)The result from the model of ecological footprint calculation based on the theory of emergy analysis shows that since 1995 the eco-economic system is in ecological deficit that is a sign of unsustainable development.The same tendency showed in the average ecological deficit and average ecological footprint indicates that its average ecological deficit is due to the average ecological footprint.The statistics also show that the local people mainly rely on the arable land to make a living.Second is the average ecological footprint of pasture and buildable area is in the up-going tendency.The average ecological footprint of agricultural products is up to 0.6852hm~2 in 2005 which is 6.68 times than that of 2002;the average ecological footprint of buildable area is up to 0.3956hm~2 in 2005 which is 3000 times than in 1995;the average ecological footprint of forest is in a up-tendency in 1995～2000 and up to 0.2620 hm~2 in 2000,the line keeps up-going though there is a steep down-going change in 2003;the average ecological footprint of fossil emergy is in a crease from 0.00004 hm~2 in 1995 to 0.0712 hm~2 2005;the average ecological footprint of water area is between 0.0044～0.0119 hm~2 that is a of a small change and shows that the local people rarely rely on the water area.There is a close relationship between the local average ecological deficit and the average ecological footprint,while the average ecological burden is small.However,as to the comparison of the ecological resources consumption and the emergy consumption,it can be concluded that the average ecological footprint is mainly influenced by ecological,resources consumption and there is no significant sign of the influence from the average emergy consumption.(4)By adopting the three evaluation methods the research shows that Wuqi County has been in the ecological deficit since 1995.However,there exists a big wave in the model of ecological footprint calculation based on the theory of emergy analysis when the ecological deficit is calculated. Such a result is not in conformity with the local situation,which shows that the model of ecological footprint calculation based on the theory of emcrgy analysis doesn't reflect local sustainable development factually.With a further comparative analysis of the ecological footprint model and emergy analysis,the result shows that ecological footprint model emphasizes particularly on the demand of ecological environment of human,reveals the resource endowment and the living quality of people more comprehensively and connects with the study of sustainable development more closely.So the ecological footprint model is more suitable for the evaluation of sustainable development,and it has the prospect of application widely.The ecological footprint model is considered as the best evaluation method to evaluate the sustainable development.However,the ecological footprint model is too much idealistic and doesn't affect the ecological deficit accurately, which needs to be improved.
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