Research On Driving Mechanism Of Desertification In Ebinur Lake Region

Desertification is one of the most serious environmental and socio-economic problems which the world is facing today,and get much concern of the international community.On the basis of related research about the desertification of driving mechanism, the writer give four methods,they are: the analytic hierarchy process (AHP),systematic analysis of mathematic model, the theory of fraction graphics and principal component analysis. Analytic Hierarchy Process is simple and effective, the method calculate the contribution rate of each layer and the contribution rate of weight, after distribution and composition, select the best measures and methods of desertification controlling. The theory of fraction graphics is a more quantitative study of desertification. After calculating the fractal dimension formula,it can provide the basis of the development trend of desertification and dust storm forecasts.The systematic analysis of mathematic model is a model that to use simple formula, based on the dynamics of soil erosion and desertification,It is simple,but not applicable to the larger region resent.From comparative analysis between four methods,writer uses the principal component analysis. The writer establish the natural factors of desertification ,a total of 20 secondary indicators. Then,through choosing 32 human activities factors in desertification in arid area actors,the paper finally identified a total of nine quantitative indicators of desertification. Being based on the data of remote sensing monitoring of desertification in Ebinur basin , combined with the study of meteorological data between 1982~2005 , and other data about society and economic, from view of time series analysising ,using the principal component analysis,got the result of The desertification in Ebinur Lake region is developing through the natural and artificial desertification process. Finally,combine with the regional features of Ebinur Lake region,writer gives us the counter measurement and restoration methods. In this paper,the writer calculated the dynamic degree of desertification between 1998 to 2005 .The results is that:From 1998 to 2002,the area of desertification reduced,the dynamic degree is -6.433 percent ,from 2002 to 2005,it increased. Dyn- amic degrees is 1.54 percent, from 1998 to 2005, the dynamic degree is 1.54 percent.The result of the principal component analysis is :The first principal component of the variance of the variable contribution rate is 69.21%,in natural factors ,the evaporation,the days of strong winds and an average annual temperature are higher than man-made factors,but the gap is not,show that the desertification process is influenced by the context of climate warming and drying of the role of human activities ;The second principal component of the contribution rate is 25.37 %,in Man-made factors :the number of livestock,urbanization,percapital GDP are higher than natural factors ,Show that the warm climate in the valley direction changes, human activities continue to affect the process of desertification,and the role is larger and larger,therefore ,the desertification in Ebinur Lake region is developing through the natural and artificial desertification process .This result is also consistent with the qualitative analysis.Finally,on the basis of the studis of the regional features of desertification of land in Ebinur Lake region, the status quo of desertification and driving factors ,in accordance with the regional characters of Ebinur Lake region ,the writer puts forward the counter measurement ,restoration ,reconstruction and improvement model of the desertification which is of the regional features of Ebinur Lake region by employing the theory of eco-economic and systematic theories.