Studies On The Risk-factor Analysis And 3-dimension Risk Degree Assessment Of Shaft Lifting System

The paper, first analyzes the cause of typical accidents of shaft lifting system in mines. According to the cause and effect model of accidents of shaft lifting system in mine, the dangerous factors of the accidents in shaft lifting system in mine is analyzed from aspects of people, device, safety management and environment, and the preventive measures is proposed. Based on the 2-dimension (probability, severity) risk degree assessment method, a 3-dimension risk degree assessment method of the shaft lifting system in mine is proposed (probability, severity and safety management are these 3 dimensions), and calculations of these dimensions are done quantitatively.This paper establishes the emerged accident probability model of shaft lifting system(cage lifting system, single sets of skip lifting system and two sets of skip lifting system) applying the Markow Process; By applying the grey system theory, based on accident-death toll of the same kind, the paper establishes self-adapting GM(1, 1) forecasting model and the model with the residual error being amended in a bid to calculate accident-death toll, thereafter, determining the severity of the accident. Fuzzy comprehensive assessment method on safety management of shaft lifting system in mine is established by applying the fuzzy mathematical theory and grey system theory.Lastly, the paper analyzes the method with case and compares the assessment result of 3-dimension risk degree method with that of the 2-dimenion risk degree method, which shows that: the risk degree is basically unchanged by using 2-dimenion risk degree and 3-dimenion risk degree method, but the 3-dimenion risk degree method is better than the 2-dimenion risk degree. The changes in risk degree showes the effect of safety management level to the whole fatalness.