Synthetical Research Of Ecological Carrying Capacity In Hubaoe Urban Agglomeration Based On System Dynamics Model

Along with world population's growth, the rate of economic development is excessively quickly changing, the resource development using intensity enlargement and the environment question's aggravating, problems such as the ecosystem to be destroyed, to lose balance and surpasses its oneself carrying capacity are presented. The ecosystem is a great,complex system which is formed by the interaction and the mutual influence forms of the population, the economy, the environment and the resources and so on.GDP of Hubaoe urban agglomeration reached 467.937 billion yuan,in 2008, accounting for 60.29% the whole region. Per capita GDP is 68858.82 yuan, much higher than the per capita GDP was 32,214.00 yuan in Inner Mongolia, and China's per capita GDP of 22,640.47 yuan. The total population of Hubaoe urban agglomeration achieved 6.80 million, the population of urban was 435.63 million, 64.10% of total population, in 2008;The total number of water resources of Hubaoe urban agglomeration was 4.90 billion m3, the consumption of water resources was 2.55 billion m3, which was 51.94% of the total number of water resources; the number of sewage emissions drop to 184.65 million tons in 2008 from 201.84 million tons in 2001. The rapid economic growth, the proportion of urban population change, resource consumption and environmental pollutants accelerate emission reductions and other problems in Hubaoe urban agglomeration, may cause the ecological carrying capacity of Hubaoe urban agglomeration out of balance.Only discovers the interaction and the mutual influence forms of Hubaoe urban agglomeration between the population, the economical, the environment and the resources, then can analyze the operation way and the mechanism of its ecosystem, thus to integrative analysis and investigate the Hubaoe urban agglomeration ecology carrying capacity.In this paper, the writer analyze characteristics and development trends of the Urban Ecological Carrying Capacity in Hubaoe urban agglomeration, Inner Mongolia Statistical Yearbook (2002—2009) for the data source, based on system dynamics model, the regression analysis and correlation analysis and other research methods, the results are as follows:1,2001-2008year, the average annual growth rate of GDP of Hubaoe urban agglomeration reached 31.54%; the total amount of annual population growth rate was 4.20%; water discharge is reduced after the first growth in 2008 than in 2007 an increase of 4.49%; total water consumption trend of more complex, but the overall trend is still growing, with an average annual growth rate of 1.62%.2,The writer select the GDP, the total population, the total number of water consumption and sewage-four indicators to develop the high program, the middle program and the low program, combined with the ecological construction of national and regional policies and strategies, set up the ecological carrying capacity SD model three kinds of simulation programs of Hubaoe urban agglomeration, and the program's results are analyzed and compared predicted that the middle program is more suitable for Hubaoe urban agglomeration's ecological development. Forecast results in the program, by 2020, calling package GDP per capita will reach 12.05 million, the number of sewage will be 2.13 million tons, total water consumption will be 3.081 billion m3.3,According to the Hubaoe urban agglomeration ecology carrying capacity SD model analysis results and the simulation plan result analyzes , from Hubaoe urban agglomeration own conditions and present developmental strategy angle embarking, to propose some countermeasures with suggested of Hubaoe urban agglomeration ecology carrying capacity synthesis construction aspect: (1) limits the big scope to growth of the total population, adjusts the population city and countryside structure reasonably, control quantity of population moves into; (2) appropriate control of rapid economic growth and should focus on the steady development; (3) to strengthen the environmental protection idea, completes surrounds the boundary protection propaganda work, raises the environmental protection consciousness; (4) rational use of resources and can't focus only on economic benefits and ignore the balance of regional ecosystems and the limited carrying capacity; (5) improving regional development strategies, from regional ecological carrying capacity of the whole concept of starting, on the regional economy, population, environment and resource planning and other factors; (6) innovative ideas, successful study abroad experience in ecological building and identify the optimum regional development of science course ; (7) improve the rules and regulations and related laws; (8) the development of resource-saving and environment-friendly economy and improve the regional ecological carrying capacity, and promote regional economic, population, environment and resources, and many other common health development.