Ecological Security Evaluation Based On The Ecological Footprint In Nanning City

As the use of natural resources needed for economic development. However, the long-term irrational use of natural resources led to a series of environmental problems, step further by restricting economic development. Thus problems of ecological security has become the focus of attention of all countries, and the ecological safety and economic security, political security and military security equated.Regional ecological security also provide the necessary conditions for regional economic development.Reform and opening up, especially after the great western development proposed, Nanning significantly improve the socio-economic level, But also brought many environmental problems. In this paper, the research object in Nanning, using ecological footprint model calculation of Nanning ecological footprint of 1998-2008, Nanning City by calculating the results to make a concrete analysis of ecological safety, and applying the grey theory on 2009-2015 of ecological security trend forecasting. The main conclusion:(1) 1998-2008 Nanning per person ecological footprint on the rise, 1.381 h㎡ from 1998 to 2008 1.754 h㎡, up 0.373 h㎡, an increase of 27.01%, average annual rate of 2.70%. In which the per capita ecological footprint in the composition of a larger proportion of arable land and grassland.1998-2008 Nanning declining per capita ecological carrying capacity, decreased from 0.6357 h㎡ of 1998 to 0.6357 h㎡of 2008, less0.0938 h㎡, 14.76% drop, 1.48% average annual decline, cultivated land and forest land account for a larger proportion of ecological carrying capacity, the total per capita accounted for more than 80% of ecological carrying capacity. Second, building land, grassland and waters relatively small proportion, less than 5% of the combined.(2) Nanning's ecological deficit since 1998 has been in deficit and ecological deficit from 0.7458 h㎡ of 1998 to 1.2117 h㎡ of 2008, Increase 0.4659 h㎡, An increase of 62.47 percent, an average annual increase of 6.25%. Including arable land, grassland, water and fossil energy area show ecological deficit, forest and building sites to show ecological surplus.(3) 1998-2008 Nanning million GDP decline largely reflected the state, especially from 2003 to 2008 fell by 0.784 h㎡/ million, a decline of 45.96%, 9.19% average annual decline, decline in Million GDP ecological footprint that Nanning City resource utilization rising, reducing the production process of resource depletion in the economic development process.Nanning ecological footprint diversity index was in constant fluctuation between 1.34-1.40. 1999-2003,2007-2008 on ecological footprint diversity on the decline, the rest of the year on the upswing, ecological footprint diversity in constant fluctuation, and did not tend to the state average and reasonable. This shows that the ecological footprint diversity need to be further improved, need sound planning and use of various types of land resources, improve the utilization of land resources and the diversity of land use.(4) 1998-2008 Nanning ecological pressure index showed a continuous increase in the state, will still continue to rise. Nanning City, the ecological pressure index increased to 1.5752 in 1998 to 2.3933 in 2008, an increase of 0.8181, an increase of 51.94 percent average annual increase of 5.19%. 1998-2004 Nanning which is very eco-security status to the ecological 2006-2008 Nanning is manifested as a very unsafe condition.(5) As the population increases and urbanization caused Nanning farmland, grassland, forest, water, energy and construction land ecological security problems exist.(6) GM (1,1) model prediction results show that 2009-2015 Nanning ecological pressure index on the rise, up from 2.50184 in 2009 to 3.34814 in 2015 increase the 0.8463, an increase of 33.83%.