On Accumulated Environmental Effect During Agricultural Economic Activities Of Ethnic Region Of Guizhou Since The Founding Of The People's Republic Of China

In the developing countries, the accumulated environmental effect of regional economics activities is existing together with the environmental degradation, ecological deterioration and economic backwardness. It is not only the problem of the environment, but also the problem of the economic society involving, the factors of nature, human, economy and society such as difference of ecological environmental system, population quality, traditional culture, psychology, customs, economical model, public economical policies and ecological compensation mechanism in the ethnic regions. The research of accumulated environmental effect is originated from the environmental impact assessment. However, the former assessment gradually becomes limited with the birth of sustainable development theory. Governments of some countries, some international organizations and academic circles have begun to focus on the study of regional accumulated environmental effect, and China also followed it. In 1995, Liwei, Wang shuhua and Wang huadong put forward the necessity to research on the assessment of accumulated environmental effect. In 1997, Peng Yingdeng pointed out the related conception and framework.On the basis of this, our country began to study the accumulated environmental effect. Entering the new century, the research is mainly centralized on the wetland ecology and river basin development, the emphasis point is on the research of natural process and natural mechanism. As the environmental problem of Karst area, whose primary feature is environmental degradation, has become to be increasingly serious day after day, the specialists have taken more and more attention on the accumulated environmental problem in the area of Guizhou. The research emphasis is shifted to the ecological restoration and reconstruction. By the methods of Scenario Analysis, GIS and Matrix, the scholars in China have gotten rich achievements on research of the accumulated environmental effect. However, it is few to use synergetic theory to do research on the accumulated environmental effect of long-term agricultural and economical action and carry out forecast and analysis by statistical and assorted forecast model.In this paper, through the analysis of collaborative development status of local agricultural development and ecological security since the year of 1949 and forecast the future development trend of the synergy degree, the Autonomous County of Puyi and Miao nationalities of Guanling will be the study point to evaluate accumulated environmental effect of agricultural and economic activities and reveal the effect of historical different development modes on the regional ecological environment of Guizhou ethnic areas, and then put forward some related suggestions and strategies to improve the harmonious development between the agriculture and ecology.The contents consist of seven parts.Part 1 Introduction. It is to interpret the background, purpose and significance and put forward the theoretical foundation, data source and research tools and methods. At last we will briefly describe related research progress on the accumulated environmental effect of China and other countries.Part 2 Basic conception and theoretical foundation. It is to interpret the con caption, cause type and study method on the accumulated environmental effect, also we will describe the conceptions and relations among the environmental impact assessment, sustainable developing and accumulated environmental effect.Part 3 Ecological environment condition of agriculture in Guizhou ethnic area. It is to generalize the situations of ecological environment and agricultural development and analyze the ecological environment condition in the Autonomous County of Puyi and Miao nationalities of Guanling.Part 4 Analysis of accumulated environmental effect in the Autonomous County of Puyi and Miao nationalities of Guanling. It is to use the senergetics method to calculate the ecologic security index, agricultural level index and senergetics index and make analysis on the trends of all indexes by establishing the senergetics index system of agricultural activities and ecology security.Parts 5 Prediction of accumulated environmental effect in the Autonomous County of Puyi and Miao nationalities of Guanling. It is to use the combined forecast model which combined by Holt-Winters model and ARMA model to make prediction on the developing trend and give results on the accumulated environmental effect.Part 6 Research of accumulated environmental effect of agricultural activities in Guizhou ethnic areas.By the phased analysis of accumulated environmental effect,it is to reveal the effect on the regional ecological environment with the different developing modes in the history and put forward some suggestions and strategies to improve the harmonious development of agriculture and ecology.Part 7 Conclusion. It is to give conclusions on the contents and innovative points and put forward some disadvantages and prospects.Through the phased analysis of accumulated environmental effect, we can get the conclusion that the developing mode in the different phase in the history will take profound effect on the agricultural economy and ecological environment, and the relations between the economy development and society development and the relation ship between human development and ecological environment are close each other. To change the vicious circle of poverty-population increasing-forest declining-ecology worsening-poverty, it is essential to order the scientific development, which is overall, harmonious and sustainable and on the basis of human, orchestrate the development of human and nature. As the principle of natural law and purpose of sustainable development, it is to enhance the ecological and civilization construction on the basis of resource and environmental bearing capacity.Through the prediction of accumulated environmental effect, we can get the conclusion that it is hard to improve the accumulated environmental effect of agricultural activities in the present method although we have gotten some successes in the agricultural development and stop the ecological environment worsening. Therefore, it is necessary to research effective methods and ways to solve the problems of accumulated environmental effect in the agricultural activities by enhancing the leading role of government and subjective role of masses as the guidance of scientific development.This article gives six suggestions and strategies:the first is to enhance the basic construction of agriculture; the second is to improve agricultural ecological environmental; the third is to improve agricultural technical level; the forth is to enhance the education propaganda; the fifth is to improve related law systems; the sixth is to develop efficient ecological agriculture.Combined the P-S-R model of pressure-situation-response on the ecological environment index which proposed by the UNEP and the economy coordination organization with the synergetic method, it is to get the ecologic security index, agricultural level index and synergetic index and make qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis according to the line graph of index.It is to forecast the developing trend of accumulated environmental effect of agricultural activities by the combined model and make analysis through the forecast results which get from the Holt-Winters model and ARMA model.