Cause Analysis And Warning Management On The Formation Of The Desert Highway Traffic Accident

The road traffic accidents and mortality rates in China remain highly, and it is rising all the time. The issues of traffic safety is also severe, because of which people lose their property and lives, and it also have bad influence on socity. According to the statistics,during the desert highway in Xinjiang first open to 2006 there were 621 accidents happened, 210 people killed, 327 people injured, the direct economic lose was more than 626 million RMB. It`s a urgent need to improve the level of desert highway safety and reduce traffic accidents. So we should systematic analyze the causes of the road accidents in desert highway, and constructing the forecast warning system of traffic accident in the desert highway.Referring to the study on earlying theory domestic and overseas, this thesis uses earlywarn theory to the desert road transport safety, and builds the earlywarn system, with the purpose to prevent the occurrence and expansion of accident, reduce the danger and loss of accident, and protect the desert road transport safety, accessibility and comfort. This consists of the following components:The first part discusses the research background of this issue, clear objectives and significance of the research, based on review relevant research at home and abroad, the content and methods of study are determined.The second part considers the desert situation and characteristics of road traffic accidents, using the man-machine engineering theory to preliminary study on the desert road traffic accident factors. The use of catastrophe theory to systematically analyses the disastrous factors in the desert highway transportation system, builds up the desert highway transportation system swallowtail catastrophe model, and then illuminates the occurring mechanism of desert road traffic accident visually.The third part, in view of the causes of desert traffic accidents and illuminates the occurring mechanism of desert road traffic accident, with the help of enterprise forewarning theory. In general, the idea of constructing an early warning system, function, work content, organization, operation mode and early warning system works are discussed. The fourth part, according to the system engineering principle, set up index system from four aspects, traffic participants, vehicles, road traffic environment and management, the weight of ever index are decided by fuzzy anlytic hierarchy process. Then early warning indicators are evaluated by the fuzzy anlytic hierarchy process.The fifth part, supplies some countermeasures for traffic accident according to the state of the forecast warning system of traffic accident in the desert highway.