Research On Passenger Flow Forecasting Method Of High-Speed Railway Based On Road Network

ABSTRACT:According to China's medium and long term planning of railway network, China will form four longitudinal, four-cross and three intercity systems by 2020, by then the high-speed rail network in China will take shape. The construction of the high-speed rail network has important significance on China's economic development and the improvement of people's living standards. And passenger flow forecasting is the important foundation for planning the high-speed rail network as a whole, determining the construction investment and development of an important basis for train operation scheme. Therefore, it is of great significance to propose high-speed railway passenger volume forecast method based on road network, and forecast passenger traffic of high speed railway network accurately.This article reviews detailed passenger flow forecasting theory and existing prediction methods on the basis of research status at home and abroad; This article provides an in-depth analysis of the high speed railway network dynamic formation mechanism, elaborates on the high-speed rail network in two areas of passenger flow trends from dynamic nature and space time network, and detailed analysis of passenger flow characteristics of the high-speed rail network; On the basis of theoretical study and mechanism analysis, based on the four-stage method, and in absorbing their forecast and adhering to the premise of the prediction steps, this article has a prediction model for improvement and innovation and proposes a high-speed railway passenger volume forecast method based on road network. In the new forecasting method, this article builds economic-demographic induced passenger flow model and time period for traffic generation and distribution model. From its service properties of the modes of transport and passenger travel characteristics, this article establishes the improved utility models. This article uses relative utility values instead of absolute values utility function to improve transport modal split model and proposes multi-path traffic assignment model based on modified utility function; Finally, to national high-speed rail network for the study and application of the proposed high-speed rail network of passenger flow forecasting method, this article predicts period of high speed railway traffic. Forecast value is compared with the actual value or official forecast data, this verifies the feasibility of improved demand forecasting method. And the application of TransCAD for achieving a high speed railway in the path of road network in the distribution of passenger flow, this provides reference for planning and construction of high speed railway network in China.