A Study Of The Evolution Model Of Maritime Emergency

Shipping industry is a higher-risk of industry all through the ages. Shipping industry was driven by the increasing global economy since 2010, and with the development of ship's large-scale, high-speed and specialization, the vessel traffic becomes more and more busy, it had made the maritime emergency occurred frequently. the maritime emergency bring significant losses to the ship's life and property, but also make serious impact on marine environment. It is disadvantageous to the economy healthy development.At home and abroad, the research of maritime emergency still rest on a statistical and analytic phase in despite of ages. Combination of the collected cases and vessel accident report, beginning with analyzing the cause of maritime emergency, the study explained the principled mechanism, theoretical mechanism, process mechanism and operant mechanism of the maritime emergency. Catastrophe theory and the theory of dissipative structures all belong to self-organization theory, the paper use these two theories establishing the evolution of maritime emergency cusp catastrophe model, entropy and self-organization model; And in accordance with the internal law of maritime emergency, the paper established stage model. Catastrophe model revealed the law of the evolution of maritime emergency from people and matter aspects. Entropy and self-organization model revealed the law of the evolution of maritime emergency from the contradiction of entropy and negative entropy. The stage model revealed dynamic processes of the evolution from time aspect.The evolution of maritime emergency cusp catastrophe model describes the relations of the evolution state of maritime emergency, people factors and matter (the ship and the environment) factors. When the maritime emergency evolution curve after mid-surface model, indicating that the system jumped, maritime emergency happened. The curve on the upper leaf shows that the system in good condition. The curve on the lower leaf shows that the system in damage or in significant risk. Entropy and self-organization model shows that there is always a movement of contradiction between flow of entropy and negative entropy in the evolution of maritime emergency from the macroscopic morphology. When the entropy power stress the negative entropy flow to the lowest point, the entropy reaches the critical point of sudden, a small random disturbance factors can cause maritime emergency broke out. Under the excitation of the emergency, the negative entropy flow factor unprecedented reorganized to less entropy energy, the system return to the ordered state once again. The stage model reveals the dynamic process of the evolution of a maritime emergency from beginning to end, which is the latent stage, the show stage, the eruption stage, the weakening stage and the regression stage. These three models deepened understanding of the mechanism of maritime emergency.Application of maritime emergency mechanism and evolution models, the paper established a new stage model of emergency management, which is emergency preparedness, monitoring and early warning, emergency response, dealing with the aftermath.This study of maritime emergency is great significance for the relevant administrative departments to manage the maritime emergency.