Research On Construction And Application Of Index System For Regional Water Security Assessment

With the continued increasing of population and the rapid development of economy, water han been a constraint to the region of economic adwancement.The situation of Regional water security,taking water resource shortage and water environment deterioration and so on, has been becoming more and more serious.The system of regional water security which includes the system of water and the system of social and economy is a complex system. How to choose a evaluation model is very important,but the reseach of regional water security is rarely.so we must further research in this region.Based on the summing-up of researcher on region water security,the dissertation summarized systematically the basic theory on region water security,also we analyse deficiency.Meanwhile,the dissertation put forward the theory and method of region security assessment. In order to exactly evalute the state of regional water security,The Driving Forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response model is adopted to establish the indicator system for Regional water security assessment.We have selected 27 indicators and adopted the method of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy in calculating the comprehensive weight with the respect of considering the objective and subjective conditions.The water security situations at the time scale(2004-2008) are analyzed with the theory of fuzzy comprehension of Guangdong province water security assessment.The results show that the water security of Guangdong province has been improved gradually,from unsafe to critical safety according to the criterion of Regional water security classification,still in a lower level, but the driving forces and pressure are still intense.And we use the method of composite index to proving the evaluation results.Meanwhile,we put forward five regional development strategy,and the fuzzy optimization model is used to select the best option.At present,the flood and drought are become more and more serious.Finally,the risk assessment of flood and drought are reseached,With Guangdong province as an example,it shows that the flood and drought of Guangdong province are in a medium high risk state, we must take appropriate measures to improve it.