Study The Demand Forecast Of Park And Ride Facilities

The P&R facilities play a more important role in urban parking management with the development of urban traffic, especially for the quick urbanization and motorization developing. As key step of P&R policy enforcement, this paper takes P&R facilities'demand forecast for research object, and do some discussions on the influence factors of P&R choice and the construction of P&R facilities demand forecast models.At first, this paper gives a brief introduction of P&R basic theory, including the definition of P&R, purpose, the classification of P&R facilities, development course and implementation effect. Also the paper introduces the application process of P&R facilities in China. For the impact factors of P&R choice, this paper divides into four aspects which are traveler characteristics, trip characteristics, trip mode characteristics, and some other relevant characteristics. At the same time, we focus on the relationship between land use and P&R facilities demand forecast. By describing the relationship between land use and traffic demand, this paper proves land use form having correlation with P&R facilities demand forecast during the whole implementation phase of P&R facilities. Also the paper constructs a P&R facilities demand forecast model which is considering land use.The first step of P&R facilities demand forecasting is determining the P&R facilities'scope and intensity of attraction. In view of P&R facilities'deference, this paper proposes two methods to determine their scope and intensity of attraction which are based on distance index and time index. In comparison of three models beforehand, this paper constructs a model called Probit Model which is based on the Stochastic Equilibrium Theory, then combine with the actual traffic situation of Beijing, we solve the demand for P&R facilities by Monte-Carlo Simulation. Meanwhile, according to Beijing's motorization, urbanization and relevant new transport policy and so on, this paper confirms the solved results of Probit Model adaptive with the present demand of P&R facilities in Beijing.