Safety Evaluation On The Oil Storage And Transportation In Port Based On Bayesian Network

With the development of social economy construction and the improvement of people living standard in China, our demands for energy, especially for petroleum, is becoming more and more. Meanwhile, shipping——as the main transportation way for our country's oil import is becoming more and more important. However, because of these above, new problems about the safety and prevention work of oil exposure. Security incidents, such as fire, explosion, leaking and ect, would be aroused in the process of oil storage and transportation which may result in the destruction of ship, the lost of life and the pollution of earth, atmosphere, water. Recently, the explosion accident happened in Dalian Port in July 16th just because of the oil slick, then people pay more attention to the safety of oil storage and transportation in port. Based on this background, the paper begins by analyzing the factors of the status of the port oil storage and transportation in China, conducting a comprehensive hazard identification process, and then establishes a more practical safety evaluation system of oil storage and transportation in port in order to solve the current security management problems happened in oil storage and transportation now.On the basis of the actual research and long-term access to a large number of documents, this paper researches the process of oil berthing port and oil storage, combining the actual situation of empirical analysis, using qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods, based on the synthetically evaluation, evaluates the oil storage and transportation in port. Firstly, through an integrated, comprehensive analysis of the risk factors happened in the process of oil storage and transportation, the safety evaluation system in port oil storage and transportation is divided into safety evaluation system of oil berthing and oil storage. Secondly, analyzes the factors of the safety system of oil berthing and oil storage analyze the causes of the current port oil accidents and the implicit factors of insecurity. By considering and analyzing oil berthing factors and oil storage factors, which have impact on the safety system of oil in port, the paper establishes a more practical evaluation index system of oil berthing and oil storage, according to the internal causal relations. Thirdly, introduces the Bayesian network, determines the Network node and its range, and establishes the topology of Bayesian network. Fourthly, under the help of a large number of data about related accidents and experts'advices, construct the safety Bayesian network evaluation on oil berthing and oil storage. Finally, analysis the results after evaluation, contrast the advantages and disadvantages, put forwards the suggestions for further work.