The Impact Of Urban Transportation Modes On Energy Consumption And The Environment

Energy, the environment and global change are major international concerns. As the largest developing country, China is undergoing rapid urbanization and motorization that have far-reaching impacts on sustainable energy and environmental protection measures. The primary challenges to more sustainable modes of urbanization and motorization come from the transportation sector, in terms of energy use, environmental pollution and climate change. According to estimates, energy use and carbon emissions in the transportation sector will comprise roughly 30% of total emissions in the future. Moreover, the transportation sector related issues are responsible for air pollution, increased traffic congestion and a reduced quality of life. Starting in the late 1990s, transportation issues such as energy consumption and emissions have become key research and policy areas in China. To date, most research and policies are focused on vehicle technologies that promote vehicle efficiency and emissions. Limited research exists on how to control greenhouse gases and criteria pollution emissions through urban transportation, in particular, by promoting public transit.This dissertation studied the framework and technologies of an assessment system for the urban transportation. The main results include the following: (1) an urban transportation sector energy consumption and emissions model, which incorporates total trips, transportation mode, trip distance and energy consumption, emission inventory modules; (2) a set of methods for data collection, estimation and processing to use when a lack of statistical data exists; (3) an assessment system of transportation mode split impacts on energy consumption and the environment in Chinese cities. It can also be used to analyze energy consumption and emission characteristics in Chinese cities as well as for future scenario analysis. This will provide technical support to the government for the formulation of urban transportation development strategies. This dissertation was used to simulate future transportation system development scenarios in the city of Jinan, including Business-As-Usual (BAU), Public Transportation Development Scenario (Low Scenario) and Low Carbon Development Scenario (High Scenario). The results illustrate, taking only carbon dioxide as an example, if no restrictions are in place on the transportation mode share (BAU), emissions will quadruple by 2030 using 2009 as the baseline. Yet, with a dense, mixed use land use pattern, as well as transportation policies that encourage public transportation, 1.93 million of tons of carbon emissions would be eliminated, which is about 50% of BAU scenario emissions. From this example, by controlling the types of urban transportation used, the government can make a huge impact on urban energy consumption and pollutant emissions, particularly carbon dioxide emissions.