Scenario Analysis Of Energy Consumption Of China’s Comprehensive Transportation Based On System Dynamics

ABSTRACT:With the rapid development of our country’s economy, energy consumption gets more and more attention. As an energy consuming industry, the development of traffic industry is bound to increase energy consumption. During the"11th five-year" plan period, the growth rate of traffic energy consumption is7.2%, higher than the total energy consumption growth of6.61%. Transportation energy consumption accounts for8.02%of total energy consumption in2010. Therefore, traffic industry is key point to realize the "12th five-year" energy-saving target.Compared to the developed countries in energy consumption, the mode of traffic energy consumption and energy intensity, it shows that China’s traffic industry ratio is lower than developed countries. Road transportation is the largest amount of energy consumption, followed by air transportation. Highway Freight energy intensity in China is lower than the United States and Japan, passenger transportation energy intensity will be in a state of slow increase.First of all, this paper set up a system dynamics model of traffic energy consumption based on software VENSIM-PLE, validated by historical data; Secondly, this paper make reasonable predictions about GDP growth rate, population, economic and industrial structure, energy intensity data and traffic energy saving targets; Then, we analysis traffic industry energy saving potential caused by technology progress, it shows that there is still a certain gap with energy-saving targets; Finally, optimizing traffic structure to achieve traffic energy-saving target based on technology progress.The main conclusions of the paper are:(1) the proportion is12.05%when traffic sector energy consumption include private vehicles,4%higher than statistical data, traffic sector becomes the second largest energy consumption industry.(2) The contribution rate of energy intensity is about84%, the contribution rate of structure optimization accounts for16%. General technological progress is very important for reducing energy consumption. Guiding rational traffic patterns, improving the efficiency of energy use are the works we must to do.(3) We should strive to develop the mode of railway and waterway transportation.