Risk Analysis And Criteria Research On The Fire And Explosion Of Naval Vessel

The general method of the risk based assessment of naval vessels' fire and explosion are concluded in this paper. The identification method of naval vessels' fire and explosion hazards are analysed. All these hazards are also classified in this paper. Analysis idea and research approach of the risk based assessment and reduction of the accidents are brought up.A lot of naval vessels' fire and explosion data are collected and sorted out. It is studied in details that the assessment and risk assessment methods of naval vessels' fire and explosion. According to the feature of naval vessels' fire and explosion, the key problems of hazard assessment which need to be solved are pointed out. The summary of the study overview, the determine principle and the application of risk acceptance criteria are made. The establishing methods of naval vessels' fire and explosion risk's risk acceptance criteria are discussed from the point of individual, society and environment, referring to it of other projects.Hazard's risk assessing frame is established based on fault tree method. It is studied deeply that the fault tree method of naval vessels' fire and explosion hazard. With the combination of characteristics of naval vessels' fire and explosion accidents, the establishment of the fault tree of the whole vessel's fire and explosion hazard are studied, thinking of the normal flammable and combustible hazards and fault hazards. From system division point of view, the method that dividing the vessel system into several different subsystems according to the cabins then establish the fault tree of each subsystems' fire and explosion accidents are brought out. On the basis of fault tree, the principle and method of fault tree's qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis and importance analysis are discussed in this paper.The fault tree of the whole vessel's fire and explosion is made in view of frigate. The subsystems dividing of the aircraft carrier are done and the dividing method of the system in of next level is also discussed, which takes the engine room as an example. The fault tree establishing method that making the system division to the fire and explosion risk based on the three factors and the engine room's hardware constituent and searching the fire and explosion hazard carefully are brought out. Finally using this method, the fault tree of fire and explosion caused by the main engine's fuel system is established.The minimal cut set, the minimal radius set, the probability of top event's occurrence and the importance of the elementary events of the frigate and engine room's main engine fuel system's fault trees are calculated. This paper analyses the naval vessels' fire and explosion accidents, classifies sorts of hazard factors, offers the safety evaluation's suggestion and analysis and also offers references for making defence methods. Thinking of the influence of the elementary events' occurrence probability's uncertainty, the intuitionistic fuzzy set is introduced. The intuitionistic fuzzy fault tree method is studied. The ammunition store's fire explosion fault tree is established and its qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis and structure importance analysis are calculated. Its intuitionistic fuzzy fault tree analysis is also done to make sure that the results are reliable enough.Based on FTA method, taking the "risk identification"-"risk assessment"-"risk management" procedure, the naval vessels' fire and explosion accidents' hazards are identified, and the possible hazards are also classified. On this basis, mathematical models of probabilities of fire and explosion accidents caused by different types of hazards are established. In the mean time, the cabin's fire and explosion risk factor's solving calculation formula are found up, which gives the reference for cabin's fire and explosion risk. The methods to reduce the naval vessels' fire and explosion risk are given referring to the specific nomograph.