The Research Of Assessment Methods For Ship's Fire And Explosion Accidents Based On Risk

Fire and explosion accidents are the two main threats of war ship safety. Compared to civilian ships, war ships have higher risk. With development of science and technology, the trend to build bigger, faster and more automatic ship leads to more complicated fire load composition, which results in more and more ship's fire and explosion accidents. Consequently, the research of fire and explosion is always the hotspot. The basic research on anti-fire and anti-explosion of ships in our country is very weak, fundamentally restricted in exploring equipment, forecast methods, and control measures. There is no special department to proceed overall and deep research. Most of the criteria of anti-fire and anti-explosion are founded on the material of civilian ships, Soviet and the United States. Through summarizing the cause and harm of fire and explosion accidents, putting forward the method of how to do risk evaluation and hazards identification, using fuzzy evaluation to analyze fire-resistant compartmentation, establishing the risk acceptance criteria, and analyzing the rule of such accidents, this thesis provides systematic theory of ship's fire and explosion risk evaluation, valuable advice on how to effectively control the source of accidents and handle the crisis in the real building and operation, and future research direction.The main research content and innovations are as follows:1. Discusses and summarizes the risk evaluation methods of ship's fire and explosion accidents. It also analyzes the hazard identification of that, and classifies the hazard of such accidents. Finally, it puts forward some advice on risk evaluation and reduction of such accidents, and points out the research direction.2. Based on a large collection and arrangement of ship's fire and explosion accidents, this paper analyzes the basic factors which result in these accidents. And sets up the ship's fire and explosion accident's fault tree, and then uses it to qualitatively and quantificationally analyze the rank of various dangerous factors. At last it gives some suggestion on the safety evaluation of ship's fire and explosion accident, which provides decisive reference for ship to take precautions.3. Makes a general evaluation of fire-resistant integrality of war ship's bulkhead and deck by fuzzy mathematics theory and discusses fuzzy evaluation model of war ship's fire-resistant compartmentation under the single attack and repetitious attack of multi weapon. It gets the fire-resistant integrality level through fuzzy evaluation on the example of the A-60 fire-resistant compartmentation.4.Uses risk identification—risk evaluation—risk control method to identify various hazard sources of fire and explosion accidents through the FTA method. And attains the goal of whole war ship's risk evaluation.5. Puts forward the method of establishment for risk acceptance criteria suitable to our national situation from angles of individual, society and environment. And points out some problems to be solved and the future development direction of risk acceptance criteria research for ship's fire and explosion accidents.